2006 Steeler run game, thru 12 tilts.
As a team, the Steelers have rushed for 100 yards or better in just four of twelve games this season. Those were: Miami, Cincinnati 1, KC and NO. Not coincidentally, they won 3 and dominated (which is to say: should have won) the other. It is noteworthy that they ran for over 200 yards in two of those, and over 170 in a third. Feast or famine.
In the past few weeks, we've heard from Coach Cowher, and others in the organization, that game situation has forced the PS to abandon their run game. Well, as the record shows: sometimes yes, but mostly no. Consider that these Steelers average 21.6 points per game (sure, a couple scores came off D-side takes but, broadly, those don�t factor) On balance, that's 10.8 points per half, which is to say: two scores per half. Therefore, as a rough approximation, we can say that except as the PS have been down two scores at intermission, the run game ought to have remained in play. Theoretically that is, prefaced on Coach Cowher�s utterances (as paraphrased) above; that sense being: the PS run game is good enough.
Ok then.
In each of 8 games, the Steelers have rushed for less than 100 yards. Three times, they led at the half; once, they were tied at the half; twice, they were within one score at the half. In just 2 of 8, at CLEV and at BALT, were they down by more than 1 score though, effectively, it could be said the DENV tilt fit too, considering Walker's run came quite early in Q3. However, it is noteworthy that the Steelers did run effectively in that one, (when they ran that is) but in all others considered here, not so much. Here ya go:
PSO rush results, 8 selected games
|
Game |
At the half |
1-score game until� |
RB carries |
QB dropbacks |
Remarks |
|
@ JAX |
Tie, 0-0 |
59:33 |
13 |
34 |
1-score game �til 27 seconds remained. The PS didn�t run because they could not run. They could not run, in large part, because BBR could not back Donavin Darius out of the box. |
|
@ SD |
PS led at the half |
58:55 |
17 |
36 |
1-score game �til 1:05 remained. The PS ran fairly effectively H1, but the PSD couldn�t get off the field H2. |
|
@ ATL |
PS led at the half |
Thruout |
22 |
38 |
Game went to OT. The PS run game wasn�t good; however, it is worth noting that the PS air game was highly effective, a rarity in the 8 tilts subject here. |
|
@ OAK |
PS one score down |
50:28 |
26 |
42 |
Carr�s INT in Q4 put it away. If there was a game when the PS needed a strong run game, this was that game. Parker had a decent line, 83 yards, but 39 came on one carry. |
|
DENV |
PS one score down |
DNA, see remarks |
16 |
47 |
PS were down 14-0 after Q1 but closed to within 4 at intermission. However, Walker's TD run on the Broncs' 1st H2 possession re-opened an 11-point bulge. After that, the teams traded scores. Similar to H2 in San Diego, this is a case when the PSD took an effective PS run game out of the equation. |
|
@ CLEV |
PS down by 10 |
DNA, see remarks |
18 |
46 |
Down 0-10 at the half, an aerial scoring flurry won it late. The PS run game was utterly ineffective against a team allowing 4.8 YPC. |
|
@ BALT |
PS out of it |
DNA, see remarks |
10 |
51 |
Down big at intermission and it got no better. In these two road tilts, CLEV and BALT, all PS RB ran 28 times while all PS QB dropped to throw 97 times. |
|
TBAY |
PS led |
PS led all the way |
29 |
26 |
Unique among the 8 games considered here, PS RB rushed more times than the PS QB threw and yet...all PS RB managed only 74 yards. The PSO did run but they didn't get it done. |
Totals |
|
|
151 |
320 |
< 1:2 run pass ratio. |
- Note: dropbacks include pass attempts and sacks.
So much for the (bogus) notion that some combo of score and possessions remaining has cancelled out the 2006 PS run game. As shown above, that has been true in, at most, three cases. The truth is: win or lose, these Steelers have rarely run effectively. In the 8 games above, for example, they ran well one time, v. Denver. It may be worth noting that they played from behind in that one, (all the way); the same was so v: OAK, CLEV (almost all the way) and BALT but not: JAX, SD, ATL and TBAY.
In general, the 2006 PS run game has failed against the best, BALT and JAX, and failed against the worst, CLEV & TBAY. In general, the 2006 PS run game has failed thruout and, sadly, the trend is worsening. It may be said that the PSD cancelled out the PS run game in two early tilts: DENV and @ San Diego. It may be said that the PSO didn�t need a run game @ ATL. However, those run game performances registered over the past three games, @ CLEV and @ BALT and at Heinz v. TBAY, have been inexcusably poor.
100 yards per game is a low benchmark. This season, only 10 teams in football have averaged less; of those, only two remain in playoff contention. Oakland, very possibly the worst team in football, averages 102.8. Put another way: when the PSD holds an opponent to under 100, that�s regarded as a win for the PSD.
It gets worse. The PSO has rushed for 749 yards in four games (MIA, CINC, KC and NO). That is an average of 187.25 YPG, which would be worth 2nd in the Show (ATL 202.6; SD 152.8). In eight other games, the PSO has rushed for 511 yards. That is an average of 63.87 yards per game, worse than #31 DET, 76.8, and #32 AZ, 75.3.
Shades of 2003.
Some imagine that it�s all about Willie Parker, but this is not so. Among individuals, Parker is 8th in the League in rushing yards; among teams, the Steelers are 19th, and fading. Consider this: any run heavy team wants their stable of RB to tote it 450-540 times. It�s well understood that the PS are, by design, a run heavy team. By way of illustration, here are some totals for a few recent seasons:
PS RB carries:
2005: 483 times
2004: 533 times
2001: 460 times
No single RB can accomplish that. In fact, the single season carry mark is 410, set by Jamal Anderson, who, shortly after, faded from the scene. The pure fact is: the Steelers do not have a 2nd RB to share the load. That is why thru 12 games all PS RB have 279 carries, on pace for 372, which is less than the team�s pitiful 2003 total, 405. Of those 279, Parker has 232 carries so, obviously, all other RB have 47.
It may be noteworthy that Parker is on pace for 309 carries, the highest single season total for any PS RB since the Bus rolled 355 times in another lost season, 2000. Willie Parker is not the problem, not entirely anyway and not nearly so much as the PS FO�s recent stubborn reliance on a pair of C$3 +30 year old RB, Bettis and Staley.
That tandem did get them through 2004, before all but tapping out in 2005. Now? Nothing (at all), a sum that certainly places, say, the Steelers� R3 pick, 2005, in perspective. Faced with the choice between RB Brandon Jacobs, and (the far superior) Marion Barber, Colbert & Co. instead selected career scrub OT Trai Essex. Not good; (perhaps) not so hideous a blunder as, say, passing on Jason Witten for Zo Jackson, or trading 5 picks for two stone-fingered smurfs, Rico and Santonio, but, you know, not good.
There it is. With the Bus parked in some studio, and the Duce prematurely punched out, this PSO limps home, one leg functional in a run game schema built for, say, three.