The Sickening Outcome of the 2014 NFL Season
Super Post-Bowl
February 6, 2105
By PalmerSucks
While I certainly don’t mind seeing Pete Carroll get grilled like a Halibut steak -- while I certainly like the idea of Stillers’ management choking on Blount’s Super Bowl ring – the sight of Brady and Belichick giggling and prancing around under the confetti was enough to make me barf up my barbecue.
All gagging aside, here’s a look back at my pre-game for Dirty Bowl I, the War Between the Snakes:
“To me, Super Bowl XLIX comes down to one key match-up: the New England run defense versus the Seattle run game, and bucking bull Marshawn Lynch…I believe Belichick will stack the box, stick Revis on his island, and dare the Seahawks to beat him through the air.
Big props to the New England run defense for keeping Lynch in check. They’re the unsung heroes of the game. I was surprised when I saw Lynch had notched 102 yards, as I don’t recall any one run where he did big damage. In fact, it was the Patriots run defense that saved Tommy Boy’s bacon when Seattle took a 10-point lead; by containing Seattle’s clock-killing run game they kept New England in the game. Just as I thought, Belicheck keyed on Lynch, and Revis did a number on Kearse, practically rendering the Seattle deep threat invisible. That’s truly a job well done by all.
“The wild card is Gronkowski, who’s been absent from the Pats in their last two Bowl losses – maybe he’s been the missing link. Should he have a 100-yard, 3-TD kind of day, opening things up for other receivers like the underrated and dangerous Julian Edelman, New England can win.”
Turns out New England had missed Gronk big time, as the big tight end came through with 6 catches and a score. More importantly he did open things up for Edelman, who for my money was the real MVP. Edelman lit it up for 109 yards on 9 catches, including the big one, a game-saving third-down converter where he got absolutely whacked yet held the ball. Edelman went on to catch the winning TD despite not knowing what area code he was in; his performance was simply heroic.
That’s not surprising to me – he’s long been a Palmer favorite, as I recall his days at Kent as a QB. (In fact his TD pass against the Ravens was probably the prettiest toss of that day.) Unlike the Stillers, who take race cars like Archer and turn them into dump trucks, the Patriots know how to make the most of versatile, multi-talented athletes. They also know when to get rid of them, too; Edelman has become what Welker was, and what Amendola was supposed to be. Take a look at the “Human Highlight Reel” strutting his stuff in college, the latest stud from the big MAC to take the NFL by storm:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sqr-fAkrcV8
Dumbest Play Ever, Or Just the Dumb Sports Media in Action?
And now, on to the play they’re all still talking about – actually more like won’t shut up about.
Every commentator on TV and radio, every sportswriter, every delivery driver, every waiter, every fan just knows that not handing the ball to Marshawn Lynch was the worst thing a football team ever did. I walked into my local bagel place Tuesday morning and guess what they were saying? “I can’t believe they didn’t run it in.”
The talking heads especially beat that horse, with big-name New York guys like Francesa and Lupica pummeling Carroll mercilessly. In their minds, Seattle just hands off, the New England defense falls over like dominoes, Lynch strolls in for the winning score, cancer is cured and all wars are ended forever.
These junior Lombardis mean well, but they, like all the rest, have committed the cardinal analytical sin of thinking like a fan, not a coach – and not realizing the mind games that go on between them. Allow me to explain.
Sunday Night I too was shocked to see the ball not handed off to Lynch. But Monday I watched the replay, no beer in hand. Here’s what hit me:
X
X X X X X X X X XX
The above shows the Patriots’ defense alignment before the snap. As you can see they’re stacked nine in the box, clearly showing a run look. So why is a pass play so uncalled for here? What’s more, their two pass defenders are split wide, so, despite the rantings of certain sportscasters, a slant-in is perfectly logical here. It’s not play design that killed Seattle, but in fact, execution. Had Kearse been able to pick his man, as the play required, the New England DB never gets a break on the ball -- and it’s an easy catch and walk-in for the Seattle receiver.
Point #2: situational football. Partly through clock mismanagement, Seattle finds itself with just 26 seconds left and only one time out. A run play that fails to score here means they have to burn their last TO with maybe 20 seconds left.
Football is a game of poker played between coaches. The ability to bluff is key. Why are receivers sent in motion before snaps? You want to see if you can get the other guy to tip his hand. Then there’s the mind-goof game. One coach is thinking, he knows we should run here, so maybe we shouldn’t; the other is thinking, he knows I know he should run here, so what would I do if I were him?
On and on it goes, back and forth, until finally the seconds run down and the ball has to be snapped.
But back to poker.
Had Seattle burned its last TO, they would have no choice but to call a pass play – and New England would know it. The Pats could commit to pass D, having little to fear from a run or any kind of play-action. Second down was the last chance Seattle had to disguise a play, something that no doubt featured in Carroll’s mind.
Yet the media mob ignores all this, going around acting like handing the ball to Lynch was a ticket right into the end zone. Oh really?
FACT: This season, Marshawn Lynch had 5 opportunities to take it in from the one-yard line. He scored just once. Lynch’s scoring percentage here is 20 percent, a failing grade on any exam. So that makes giving him the ball here a “sure thing”?
What’s more, during the game the “unstoppable” Lynch had been stuffed on 3rd and 1 from the New England 8-yard line, resulting in Seattle having to kick a field goal. Again, so much for the “automatic” touchdown that was going to result if Seattle just handed off. This was something, no doubt, weighing on Carroll’s mind as the ‘Hawks called their final play of the game.
Lynch is a misunderstood – and mischaracterized – back. Like Bettis used to be, Lynch is pure hell to tackle once he breaks the line of scrimmage. However, for a big guy, he’s surprisingly easy to bring down behind the line. Like the Bus, he’s best once he gains a head start and full head of steam – he’s what I call a “momentum” back. (Le’veon Bell, by the way, is the opposite of this kind of runner.)
Conventional wisdom says Seattle should’ve won the Super Bowl simply by handing off to Lynch. I disagree. No run play was “guaranteed” here any more than a pass play was. The Patriots were prepared for both on that fateful play – which is why Belichick didn’t have to use his own time out.
So what else does Seattle call here? A Wilson zone-read keeper? Again, the Pats are waiting for either Wilson or Lynch with a stacked box. A roll-out? Maybe not a bad idea – but again, nothing New England wouldn’t be expecting. A fade? Not likely to work, with two DBs with easy access to the corner. The one play they might not have been looking for was in fact the slant, as evidenced by the fact that everyone in the world was apparently shocked they ran it.
Which leads me back to the radio announcer and the deli guy. There’s a famous line attributed to Joseph Kennedy, father of JFK, who avoided being wiped out in the crash of ’29 because he sold his holdings early. The reason? As Kennedy explained, he knew when the shoeshine boy started handing out stock tips, it was time to get out of the market. See the point?
What’s overlooked by the lynch mob is that the outcome is in fact a product of execution – not Pete Carroll’s stupidity. The play failed for two reasons:
1. Kearse failed to pick the DB.
2. Despite having a clear passing lane, Wilson throws at a bad angle – hitting the
DB rather than the receiver.
Carroll’s taking the blame, but it’s his two players who share in the failure. Had they executed correctly, the likely outcome is a touchdown, or at worst an incompletion. Credit, too, the New England defensive backs for diagnosing the play and preventing the pick.
Bottom line: had the play worked, all these yahoos screaming for his head would’ve been patting Carroll on the back, admiring the balls he showed for not running when everyone expected it! What a joke.
The Patriots won because they controlled Lynch, and on offense used Gronkowski outside to open up things for Edelman inside – thus neutralizing Sherman and the Legion of Boom defense. On the last interception, as stated before, New England was prepared for either run or pass; in fact the real hero of the game wasn’t Butler, but his teammate who bumped off Kearse. In the end, the “right” team likely won. So maybe instead of piling on Carrol, we should be crediting New England for executing a well-thought-out game plan.
As for the 2014 season, it turned out to be pretty nauseating, from the vomit-inducing way the Stillers handled Blount to Bell going down that awful Sunday Night. The nausea continued through the playoffs, from watching Tate bat the ball -- and the game -- over to the Ravens, to knowing the Stillers could’ve punched their ticket to facing the lame Broncos in Denver. Then there was the gut-wrenching “what if?” thinking about the Stillers going to New England with a healthy Bell – and the dual-threat offense Belichick would’ve had trouble scheming against. Finally, it was barf-bag time watching Pretty Boy and the Prick lifting another trophy, proving that, despite the old saying, cheaters do prosper.
Oh, and more thing. Best wishes to Coach LeBeau as he takes over as associate head coach for the Titans. Clearly you were as ready to retire as the Stillers said you were.
So let’s close the book on ’14 and look ahead to the ’15 draft, in my mind the most important one for the Stillers in 20 years. I’ll be looking ahead to the combine and beyond. See you back here in April.
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