Smitter�s Week 4 Picks vs the spread
Last week:�� 5-9�� Overall: 22-24� 47.8%
FLG�s last week: 1-2�
FLG�s overall: 4-4� 50%
OUCH. Last week was not a good one for me. 5-9 overall,� 1-2 in FLG�s. Unfortunately, there are going
to be weeks like that. In an effort to rebound, this week I consulted with Gus,
the 2nd most famous groundhog in Pennsylvania. (For those not in PA,
the lottery�s commercials to introduce new scratch-off tickets features Gus).
Now, hopefully Gus is better at picking than his famous offspring, Phil, is at
predicting when winter ends. We got some teams coming off bye weeks, so we�ll
see how they historically do after the bye week.
This week�s picks:
San Diego (+ 5 �) over New England � I look for New
England to not only suffer a letdown after the Steelers game, but for the
Chargers to exploit the absence of Harrison. New England may win, but it will
be close. Hopefully LT suffers a sprained ankle or something that forces him to
miss a game or two.
Jacksonville (- 4 �) over Denver � Denver looked good
Monday night, but a short week combined with a trip east to face a tough Jax
defense will result in a Jax win.
Houston (+ 9 �) over Cincinnati � Texans are 2-1
in their short history after a bye week. Bengals due for a bad game.
Indianapolis (- 7 �) over Tennessee � Indy continues
to roll against the Titans.
Detroit (+ 7 �) over Tampa Bay � Lions only 2-3
last five years after bye week, but 3-0 vs Tampa the last 4 years.
St Louis (+ 3 �) over NY Giants � Rams 0-3 last 4
years vs the Giants, but Giants suffer hangover after the Chargers loss.
New Orleans (- �) over Buffalo � Loss of Spikes
hurts. Lossman needs to step it up. New Orleans will rebound after being able
to actually spend a whole week in one place, and play a �home� game
Seattle (+ 2 �) over Washington � Skins have lost
last two years after a bye week. Seattle stinks on the road, but probably don�t
have to score too many to win this game.
Baltimore (- 7 �) over NY Jets � Heck, will there
even be 7 points scored in this game? Over/Under is 31 points, might be the
lowest O/U in a long time. Ravens defense will confuse Bullinger.
Philadelphia (+ 1 �) over Kansas City � KC stunk up
Denver Monday. McNabb hurting and may only be a big hit away from missing season.
The difference is TO against a revamped KC defense that may not be so revamped.
Minnesota (+ 5 �) over Atlanta � Michael Vick is
hurting, Vikings rebounded last week after disastrous start. Look for Vikings
to win in a high scoring game.
Oakland (- 3 �) over Dallas � Dallas� second trip
to Bay Area in two weeks won�t be as productive as last week. Oakland gets
first win of season.
Arizona (- 3 �) over San Francisco � On paper,
heck, more than on paper, the reality is the 100,000 or so in Mexico City on
Sunday night will see two bad teams. Arizona, though, was expected to show more
this year, and even without Warner, the Cards get their first win of the year.
Green Bay (+ 8 �) over Carolina � I still don�t
think the Packers are as bad as they have looked. Even with an 0-3 start, a win
here puts the Packers right back in the division race in the NFC North, where
all it might take is 8 wins for the division crown.
My First Look Goodies (FLG) for the week are:
Jax (- 4 �) over Denver
Eagles (+ 1 �) over Kansas City
Colts (- 7 �) over Tennessee