Here is a look at the AFC playoff scenario after NFL Week # 15 with two games remaining in the 2005-06 campaign:
Another great weekend of football, but although things are starting to shape up in the playoff picture, the Steelers future is still cloudy. No doubt, KC�s loss in the Meadowlands was another great gift from the NFC East, but Jacksonville�s near loss to the lowly Niners raises some serious questions about them as we come down the homestretch�.Other than us taking care of our own business, nobody holds the keys to the Steelers playoff fates more than the Jags. With that being said, here is how things stand in the AFC after week 15.
Indianapolis: The �72 Dolphins popped the cork once again as the Chargers went into the RCA Dome and beat the Colts. This game, and the rest from here on out, have no effect on the Colts, other than how they look heading into the playoffs, as they have already clinched the #1 seed. No doubt, they would have loved 16-0, but ultimately, every team�s goal is to win the Super Bowl, so for them, the questions about going for the perfect season, or resting players heading into the playoffs are over. Perhaps the question that will be raised is if the Chargers found some chinks in Indy�s armor that other teams can now exploit.
Denver and Cincinnati: Denver�s win over Buffalo clinched a playoff berth. Cincinnati�s win over Detroit clinched the AFC North. Both of these teams took care of business, and remain in the same positions as last week. Denver currently holds the tiebreaker over Cincinnati for the #2 spot based on Conference Record (Denver 8-2, Cinci 7-3)�Assuming both win out, Denver will retain the #2 spot, leaving Cinci in the #3. Denver travels to Oakland, leading up to their Week 17 match up with the Chargers. This final game could have numerous implications. If Denver loses to Oakland and San Diego beats the Chiefs next week, this game will determine the winner of the AFC West. If Denver beats Oakland, they will clinch the West, but no doubt their game with San Diego will still loom large if Cincy beats Buffalo in Week 16. A Denver loss and a Cincy win would leave Denver in the #3 and the Bengals with a first round bye�Long story short, Denver holds their own destiny in their hands�win out, and get #2, leaving the Bengals in #3.
New England: The Patriots seem to be getting that playoff savvy again, as they spanked the Bucs on Saturday and clinched the AFC East once again. Worst case scenario, the Pats are locked into the #4 seed. The best they can hope for is the #3. The only way they move into this spot is if they win out and Cincy loses out. Either way, somebody will be traveling to Foxboro in the first round of the playoffs.
Jacksonville, Pittsburgh, San Diego, Kansas City: This has been debated over and over, but the final word is this�THE STEELERS DO NOT CONTROL THEIR OWN DESTINY!!! There exists the potential for the Steelers to be the first 11-5 team in over 20 years to miss the playoffs. First, let�s look at the easy scenarios. If the Steelers win out and the Jags win out, the current situation will exist. Jacksonville will retain the #5 seed, and the Steelers would retain the #6 seed, regardless of what the Chargers do. Beyond that easy scenario, things get really crazy with the potential of not only a 3 way tie, but a 4 way tie as well�Here are all the potential scenarios:
JAX: Beat HOU and TEN� (12-4)
PIT: Beat CLE and DET� (11-5)
SD: Beat KC and DEN� (11-5)
Jacksonville is the #5 seed, Steelers are #6 based on their head to head win over San Diego
JAX: Lose to either HOU or TEN� (11-5), Conf (8-4)
PIT: Beat CLE and DET� (11-5), Conf (7-5)
SD: Beat KC and DEN� (11-5), Conf (9-3)
This is where the Steelers lose out. The first tiebreaker for 3 teams is head to head sweep, but this does not hold here. The next is Conference record. SD gets the #5 seed. Then it goes to the 2 team tiebreaker, this being head to head. By virtue of the loss to Jacksonville, the Steelers would be out of the playoffs.
JAX: Lose to either HOU or TEN� (11-5)
PIT: Beat CLE and DET� (11-5)
SD: Lose to either KC or DEN� (10-6)
Jacksonville is the #5 seed, Steelers are #6 based on head to head.
JAX: Lose to both HOU or TEN� (10-6)
PIT: Beat CLE and DET� (11-5)
SD: Beat KC and DEN� (11-5)
Pittsburgh is the #5 seed, San Diego is # 6 based on head to head
JAX: Finishes 11-5 or better
PIT: Lose either of their last games� (10-6)
SD: Lose to KC and beat DEN� (10-6)
KC: Beat SD and CIN� (10-6)
First, you eliminate either KC or SD. Since they would tie on head to head and division record, it would go to common opponents, which SD would win. We would then beat SD based on head to head. JAX #5 and PIT #6
4 Way Tie: In a four way tie, the Steelers would be out for much the same reason of a 3 way tie with JAX. PIT loses out based on conference record.
Another nightmare scenario is if SD wins out and DEN loses out, SD would win the west, and the Steelers would lose out again because of their conference record. Things should be pretty clear following next week. All the Steelers can do is take care of business on their end and hope everything else falls into place.
Staff Note: ChiTraderRob has authored this playoff analysis for the AFC. The staff is working with him to update his table and analysis weekly until the playoffs are set.