Stillers vs. Colts Pregame Analysis (Divisional Playoff
Game, @ Indy)
The Stillers travel to Indy for a rematch with the Colts in
a divisional round playoff tilt.�� The
Colts prevailed, 26-7, when these 2 teams met on Nov. 28th.� ��
Readers should first consider reading my in-depth pre-game analysis from the
regular season meeting, as well as that of Steel Phantom, as
little has changed between these 2 clubs in terms of personnel and injury.�
* When the Dolts have the ball, they'll be led
by the best QB in the NFL today, Peyton Manning.� Manning isn't a 1-man show, of course, as he engineers the NFL's
most dangerous offense.� He's flanked by
the best trio of WRs in the league -- Marv Harrison, Reggie Wayne, and Brandon
Stokley.� Harrison and Wayne are legit
starting WRs, and Stokley is an unheralded, ultra-reliable #3.�� At TE is none other than Dallas Clark, a
deceptively quick TE with extremely good hands and a good knack for finding the
open seam.�
The Colts have no slouch at RB, with all-world Edge James
performing those chores.� One has to
wonder if the Colts witnessed the Cinci stupidity from last Sunday, when the
Bungals disallowed star RB Rudi Johnson from touching the ball the last 20
minutes of the ballgame, despite a deficit that was only 4 and mostly grew to just
11.� �James toted the ball 29 times in the last meeting versus Pit,
which enabled the Colts to chew the clock and prevented the Stillers from the
hefty TOP bulge they love to possess.�
Manning, who is equal to at least 90% of the offensive
coordinators in the league, has had a week off to study the Stillers and
assemble his own gameplan.� The
Stillers' dime and quarter (7 DBs) gave him a unique challenge back in Nov.
that gave him some problems, but knowing Manning, he boiled down that game's
tape at least 9 days ago and is far readier to face that defense again.�
The Colts love to have WR Reggie Wayne run delayed crossing
patterns.� Wayne has good speed and is
dangerous after the catch.� This caused
some problems back in Nov, and, as the Stillers have had struggles against opposing
#2 receivers that are quality starters, this must be addressed.�
The Chargers had the big win to bust up Indy's undefeated
season, and many have pointed to the work of Shawne Merriman and the SD defense
as a good blueprint of beating this vaunted Indy offense.� While the theory is valid, the primary
problem facing the Stillers is that, sadly enough, they don't have a linebacker
with the size, brawn, strength, and agility of a Shawne Merriman.�
The key matchup will be the Stillers' package
defenses against the Colt offense.� In
meeting #1, Indy burned the Stiller defense in the very first series, going
deep to Harrison for a long TD while the Stillers were in their archaic base defense.� Lebeau soon scrapped the base that evening,
and aside from a softee prevent late in the 2Q that allowed a late Indy FG, the
defense did a decent job of limiting the Colts thereafter.� Last week, the Bungals came out in their 1st
series and ran a toss sweep on the 1st play, and then quickly regrouped at the
LOS.� Going no-huddle, they caught the
Stillers in their archaic base and hit Henry deep for the 66-yard bomb.�
The trend is obvious -- the
Stillers' base defense is entirely incapable of defending any offense that has
a legit NFL QB and a stable of capable receivers.� At a minimum, the Stillers will spend a good amount of time on
Sunday in the nickel, and it's likely they may go heavy in the dime and even
the 'quarter', which gave Manning some problems back in November.�
���������� The problem
with the dime, as we know quite well, is that the run defense is entirely
susceptible.� Tennessee ravaged us a few
years ago in the dime, for example.�
Going nickel presumably sits down Larry Slow-a-Foote, which is, of
course, a good thing.� Going dime sits
down Casey Hampton at times, and the result is Edge James licking his chops at
the thought of gaining an easy 4 yards before first contact.� The other concern in the dime, is that is
forces OLBs Clark Haggans and Joey Porter to play DE, not OLB, and at 250
pounds each, these 2 are at a mismatch if the Colts want to run the ball, and
frankly, they're at a mismatch in the pass-rush department as well.��
���������� The game
will come down to this:� how well
can Pittsburgh's dime defense limit Manning's passing, and how well will Edge
James be able to run the ball against that same dime defense?� �And,
how well will Manning audibilize against the package defenses?�
���������� One other
idea, as suggested by my esteemed colleague Lance Williams from
MySportsRadio.com, is to jam the piss out of the Indy receivers, a la the NE
Pats.� I love the idea, as it's
something that the Colts haven't seen from us, plus it disrupts the timing
routes that Manning and company love to run.�
I sincerely doubt, however, that Billy Cowher will implement this.� After all, if he hadn't enough of a brain to
plan for a silent count in the previous meeting at the RCA Dome, he likely
hasn't enough of a brain to adjust his softee defense into something a bit more
aggressive and disruptive.�
Other key matchups:
* Troy Pola vs. Peyton Manning.� Pola lines up everywhere, and has been the
team's best blitzer this season.� Problem
is, he's a SS and is one of the team's best pass defenders.� Every blitz by Pola leaves this secondary at
risk with a vacant hole.� How well
Manning reads Pola's blitzes, fake-blitzes, and other stunts, will be instrumental
in the outcome of this game.�
* NT Casey Hampton vs. C Jeff Saturday.�� Hampton is superior here, no question.� But don't confuse Saturday with those clumsy
stiffs from Cleveland and Minnesota, whom Hampton just shoved aside like an
empty trash barrel.� Saturday can at
least hold his own, and with James' running style and the Indy blocking scheme,
that's often all that is called for.� A
big factor to consider, is that Casey's PT will be severely limited if the
Stillers go heavy with the dime or quarter.�
* ROLB Joey Porter vs. LT Tarik Glenn.� Joey The Mouth loves to woof, and he did a
nice job of inciting the Colts with his loud-mouthed comments on Wed.� As I've noted several times this season,
it's time for more bite and less bark from Joey The Mouth.�� He's done little this season, and did
nothing this past Sunday versus Cinci.� Let's
see what the big boy does on Sunday.�
* When the Stillers have the ball, Benji
Roethlisberger has considerably more experience and savvy this post-season than
in last year's miserable playoffs.� The
offense is in full health, and seems to be as jelled as one can hope for.�
#4 WR Q. Morgan is gone for the season.� The Stillers signed former Stiller-scrub Lee
Mays off the scrap heap.� Here's the
deal -- if the Stillers want to go 4-wide, the 4th receiver MUST be
Heath Miller.� Anything else is sheer
stupidity.��
The Colts defense, as you should know, is smallish in the
front 7, with only DT Corey Simon and backup DT L. Tripplett possessing any
average+ size.� What the Colts lack in
size, of course, they make up for with outstanding speed and quickness.� The Colts defenders are adept at shooting
gaps -- eschewing mano-o-mano bravado -- and they make an inordinate number of
plays from the backside with speedy backside pursuit.�
The Stillers' offense struggled in their previous meeting at
the RCA Dome, particularly in dealing with the crowd noise.� Back then, Billy Cowher deliberately chose
to not use a silent count, despite the rest of the NFL, as well as the NCAA and
even high school teams, perfectly adept at using the silent count for the past
20 years.�
The Stillers would love to play ground chuck on the Colts
and chew the clock and wear down this smallish front 7.� The main problem in doing that, is if Indy
jumps to a nice lead and forces the Stillers to abandon the run.� The other impediment will be how forcefully
Indy stacks the line.� If Indy brings up
the kitchen sink to jam up the run, the Stillers will have to pass on early
downs; running into the teeth of an 8-9 man front is the kind of macho bravado
that Billy Cowher loves, but is, of course, sheer stupidity.�
FS Bob Sanders had a career game in the Nov. meeting, outclassing,
by a wide margin, every other DB on the field from both
squads.� Sanders flashed up like a
lightning bolt to shut down a few plays that had the look of promising
yardage.� Sanders loves to hit and, with
terrific speed, can be a difference maker.�
The key matchup will be the RDE Dwight Freeney vs.
LT Marvel Smith, and backup LDE Robert Mathis vs. RT Max Starks.� Freeney and Mathis have both had a few weeks
to rest up and get ready for playoff football, so you can expect both to be
revving at high RPMs.� Smith has played
ok since returning from injury, although he's had the luxury of facing some
rather ordinary rushers.� He'll have his
hands full, and then some, versus Freeney.�
Starks has progressed in small steps this season; but his run blocking
is far better than his pass pro.� His
main problem is his propensity to get upright, as well as his slow footedness
in closing off "the corner" where a speed rusher veers toward to the
QB.� The small but speedy Mathis presents
an enormous challenge, and Starks has got to stave him off that extra second so
that Ben can either fire the ball or scoot from pressure.� If either of these ferocious rushers put a
crushing blow on BenRoth, or strip the ball for a key fumble recovery, it could
easily be the difference in the game.��
Special Teams: �This being the playoffs, there�s always a high probability of a
Stillers spec teams fiasco.� Fortunately, aside from PK Mike Vanderjagt, the Indy spec teams
are ordinary.� Randle El should enjoy
running and cutting on the dry, crisp turf inside the RCA Dome, and the
Stillers could certainly use a big punt return from the ex-Hoosier.� Reed missed a very makeable FG in the prior
meeting in Indy, and he'll need to be perfect if the Stillers are to knock off
the Colts.� Spec teamers Quincy Morgan
and Jamie Harrison were injured in last week's tilt.� Morgan is done; Harrison is doubtful.� Morgan's loss doesn't hurt the spec teams, but Harrison's does,
as he's one of the better headhunters on the coverage teams.�
Other critical Individual Matchups:
* WR Antwaan Randle El vs. the Indy defense.� In the prior Indy meeting, Randle El was all
but forgotten, which was puzzling, as his cutting ability is tailor made for
the fast track inside the RCA Dome.� He finished
the game with 0 carries and 2 catches for a whopping 5 yards.� Ken Cheezenhunt must get the ball into El's
hands at least 7 times this game, with a combination of handoffs, bubble
screens, short curls, and slants.�
* OLB Cato June vs. RB Willie Parker.� Speed on speed.� The Stillers could try to avoid June and go to the other side, although
OLB David Thornton is quick and hits harder than anyone on the defense, aside
from Sanders.�
Coaching:
��� Tony Dungy has
endured the worst crisis any parent could go through -- the death of his child.� This would have mentally crushed many a
strong man, but to his credit, Dungy was incredibly strong and composed, and it
is a tribute to his faith in God and himself that he has gotten through this tragedy.� Dungy entered this season with a laser-sharp
focus on one primary goal -- home field advantage throughout the playoffs,
where his fast team wouldn't be bogged down by the mud and snow of Boston.� He succeeded wildly in that endeavor, and
has the Colts positioned exactly where he wanted them.� Imbeciles like Ted Bouchette claimed, a
couple weeks ago, that the death would have some sort of negative impact on
Dungy and the Colts, but frankly, if anything, this death has brought this team
closer together and has given Dungy even more resolve to win the championship.�
��� Billy Cowher has
choked and gagged in the playoffs more than any HC in modern NFL history.� (See Cowhard's tabular playoff history and
verbiage-playoff history.)� The uninitiated assume that Cowher is some
grandmaster, but this is the same coach that, when preparing to play the Colts
in the RCA Dome back in November, totally eschewed the silent snap count, as
though it were some revolutionary theory hatched by a NASA research scientist.� Wrote Bob Kravitz from the Indy Star: "It still amazes me how
obscenely unprepared the Steelers were to handle the noise in the Dome last
time. How can you come to Indy without having spent the week working on a
silent count? That's like showing up at a Formula One race without the proper
tires. The Steelers committed five false starts, although I'm not sure coach
Bill Cowher's decision to try an onside kick was the result of
high-decibel-related confusion."� When it
comes to playoff football, no one does less, with more, than Billy Cowher.�
Intangibles
* End of season performance and focus.� There's been a lot of talk about how Indy
looked out of sorts and struggled late in the season.� It's poppycock, really, because they went through these "struggles"
while sitting numerous starters and playing games that had no more meaning than
the ones played back in August.��
Meanwhile, what some fans forget, is that the Stillers were fighting for
their very lives, with every starter on the field, yet struggled like bitches,
at home, against a pathetic Lions team.�
They then followed that up with a raggedy, sloppy, lukewarm effort
against an underdog Cinci team that lost its star QB and WR on the 2nd
offensive play of the game.�
* Crowd noise.�
It's entirely likely that Indy fans, annoyed at the accusations of
pumped-in crowd noise, will simply yell and stomp even louder than they usually
do.� I believe the Stillers had a
legitimate beef about the pumped-in crowd noise, but the unintended consequence
will be that the oft-docile Indy fans will be screaming bloody murder from the
very first kickoff and will be louder than the in-their-heyday Deep Purple every
time the Stillers have the ball.��
* History of divisional playoffs.� The visiting team has won in this round,
just 18% of the time.�
�
Synopsis: This, along with the NE-Denver
game, should be the game to watch on TV this weekend.� Were the Stillers able to play this game on
a muddy field, and were the Stillers to have a better, more innovative and
intelligent head coach than a dimbulb like Billy Cowher, they'd have a shot at
the upset.� Unfortunately, they're
saddled with Cowher, and they'll be saddled with a 27-19 loss to the
Colts.� We'll soon prepare the individual
grades for each player and coach, as well as embark on the annual Offseason Analysis.�