2005
Game 1 Preview:
Last
winter, Tennessee hemorrhaged a number of FA, including CB Samari Rolle, FS
Lance Shulters, CB Andre Dyson, DE/DT Kevin Carter, RT Fred Miller and
perennial #1 WR Derrick Mason.� Factor that
with their 5-11 2004 mark, and, on the face of it, the Titans look to be
bottomfeeders this season.�
Well,
maybe so, but there are factors arguing against that.� First, while Tennessee does have a young squad (12/13 2004 draft
picks remain with the team and 9/9 from the 2005 class), those players do have
some talent; within those two classes, (9) Day One picks.� Jim Schwartz is one of the better D-heads in
the League; Norm Chow figures to be one of the better O-coordinators.� That pair will have their guys ready to
play.�
Then
there�s parity: worst to first is not the exception; it�s the rule.� We saw the 2004 Steelers come from 6-10 to
15-1.� Carolina: down then up then down
again and now picked by some to win the NFC.�
Injury, or the absence thereof, factored in every case.� Certainly that was true for the 2004 Titans,
a team whose fans had seen it before.�
In 2001, a Tennessee team coming off back-to-back 13-3 campaigns (and
one Super Bowl trip) suffered numerous early season injuries, mainly concentrated
in their secondary.� That year, they
fell to 7-9; following campaigns showed that swoon was (indeed) more about
injury than, say, age (well, except for Eddie George).� Healthy thru 2002-03, the Titans returned to
the PO both seasons, once reaching the AFCC.���
This 2005 Titan team doesn�t figure to be at that level but they do have the talent to compete.� The plan is the same as last year: fold considerable youth in around a corps of veterans.� It is worth noting that during the debacle that was their 2004 season, a number of rooks got game experience.� Presuming a preponderance of those players improve Year 1 to 2, and that they and the older vets stay healthy, 9-7 isn�t out of the question for Tennessee.� What does that mean for Sunday?� Well, if pre-season is any guide, that 9-7 type mark is well within the 2005 Steelers� reach too.� Since others will focus on the hometown heroes, here, we�ll mainly consider the visitors.�
Tennessee D-side:�
As noted, Jim Schwartz is one of the best D-coordinators in football.� Entering 2004, with both Jevon Kearse and Robaire Smith lost via FA and Peter Sirmon out pre-season, Schwartz still had his young charges competitive, early on anyway.� Through Week 10, the Tennessee D was ranked 10th�� Finally, they did collapse, under the weight of additional injuries (some tabulated below), finally finishing 27th.� Now, these Titans open at full strength; it�s a good bet we�ll see a better performance than those they flopped down over last year�s close.� Scheme-wise:���
The Titans run a 4-3 base, but for several seasons have played nickel on about 60% of all downs.� Those Tennessee PO teams of recent vintage had depth at DT and DE, quick LB and big, athletic DB.� Schematically nothing has changed.� Quality?� Well, that�s yet to be shown.�� Considering their personnel, front to back:
RDT Abner Haynesworth, R1 2002, has been something of an underachiever; however, Schwartz has said Big Abe has turned the corner.� If so, he can be a force; at this point, he is the senior member of that D-line unit.� In a league of strong men, LDT Randy Starks, R3 2004, is a freak.� While at U-Maryland, Starks broke many of the immensely powerful Kris Jenkin�s weight room marks.� Hobbled in the early going last season, Starks came on with 4.5 sacks; per Schwartz, he was the Titans best run defender since Josh White.� The second youngest player in the 2004 draft (2 wks senior to PK Sam), Starks figures to get better.� Far better.
Like Haynesworth, RDE Antwan Odom, R2 2004, has been another underachiever.� A full sized DE (6-5, 274), Odom occasionally showed as a force but too often appeared to be sleepwalking.� Turns out, maybe he was; last winter it was found that Odom suffered from sleep apnea so severe that, under experimental observation, he was found to awaken an average of 32 times per night.� Odom had a minor operation, now gets 8 hrs, instead of 1-3.� Refreshed, he came on in the x-hib with 3 sacks (in starting duty) over the last two tilts.� LDE Kyle Vanden Bosch is a high motor FA, picked up from the AZ Cards.� A former R2 pick, hampered by injury over three desultory desert campaigns, KVB is, if nothing else, a character addition.� 3 x-hib sacks suggest he may be back to that form he flashed as a Nebraska Husker.
As noted, the Titans play a quantity of nickel; Rien Long, R4 2003, is a package DT; a reasonably capable pass rusher who plays too high to be effective against the run.� DE Travis LaBoy R2 2004, is lightning quick and highly intelligent; however, at a yoked up 260, (naturally ~ 235), he�s a liability v. the run too.� LaBoy is in the wrong system; he was born to be a Pat OLB.� Two high motor players of modest ability, DT Jared Clauss, R7 2004, and DE Bo Schobel, R4 2004, round out the rotation.�
ROLB Keith Bullock, R1 2000, is one of the top all-around OLB in the league; the PS might as well run at him because they will not be able to run away from him.� LOLB Peter Sirmon R4 2000, who missed all of last season, is a quality player too, solid in all aspects.� Bullock and Sirmon will stay on in packages; MLB Brad Kassell, UDFA 2002, will not, giving way to that 3rd CB, presumably R1 rook Pac Man Jones.�� Kassell is a hitter; coming in when Rocky Calmus went down last season, Kassell closed with 101 T.� Now, Calmus is in Indy, so Rocky Boiman, R4 2002, hero of the Titans� 2003 Heinz demolition, figures as the 4th.�
Tennessee features two LB-size safeties, Tank Williams, R2 2002, and Lamont Thompson, R2 2002.� Both are +220#; Combine results show considerable speed, 4.46 and 4.43.� The Titan packages, and to a lesser extent their base, go because these players, especially Williams, can interchange effectively with the OLB.� All are fast, all have size; of those, Bullock runs like a DB and Williams hits like a LB.� Thompson does have some attributes as a ballhawking FS; he did play some CB at Wash State and, in 12 starts last season, had 4 INT and 1 FF.� Though he was considered soft early in his career, so much so that Bengal HC Marvin Lewis cut him in 2003, the Titans did give Thompson a multi-year extension last winter.� This player got off to a bad start but if Floyd Reese is correct, that�s all over now.����
For two seasons, Andre Woolfolk, R1 2003, has been the 3rd CB, when healthy.� However, Woolfolk wasn�t often healthy.� He appeared in just 10 games last season, 6 in his rook campaign.� At this point, Woolfolk is an unknown quantity.� If the Titans play to form, then he will try to fill Rolle�s role, man-out in their nickel.� Woolfolk does have size (6-1/197) and good tested agility; his speed, 4.46 is ok but he�s not the Titan�s fastest starting CB.� That title belongs to Tony Beckham, R4 2002, who, in Ike Taylor mode, reached the NFL from a tiny school (Wisconsin-Stout) mainly on the strength of a favorable size/speed ratio (6-1/190/4.38).� Like Taylor, Beckham is a straightline guy and, like Taylor, he�s largely unproven as a CB.� Beckham has 1 INT and 5 PD in limited duty over 3 seasons; reportedly, he bites hard on each and every double move.�
What to expect:�
In the base, the Titans will employ a quantity of Bear front, engaging the PS IOL.� Since these 2005 Steelers, in x-hib action, have shown neither the trace of a vertical game nor a consistent run game, the Titans figure to have up to 9 in the box, certainly 8, unless or until the PS moves them out.� One way is for the WR to win on the edge, a second, for the TE to factor in the pass game, a third for Willie Parker to break the first wave and then flip the field.� Except as the Steelers establish any of those, on a consistent basis, it�ll be 1998 redeux.� It�s worth noting, again, that the Titan DT, DE, LB and S personnel are ideally configured to play in the downhill, attack mode outlined here.� The question for Tennessee is with the CB.�� Unfortunately, these Steelers have about as many questions at WR.��
Key matchup:�
Titan DT v. PS IOL.� Last season�s success depended mainly on the run game and that depended mainly on the Steelers� interior 3 moving out all opposition.� That run bulge translated to a TOP bulge that protected the Franchise, and kept what, IMO, was a highly suspect D fresh and, well, underexposed.� This year?� We�ll see.� Within this unit match: Randy Starks, the Titans� most powerful DT v. Kendall Simmons, the Steeler O-linemen weakest at the POA.�� Note: Starks is questionable with a knee; if he can�t go then Rien Long will.� If so, this match swings towards even.� Long will beat Simmons some, but Simmons, generally the low man, will win his share too.� Finally:� IMO, the DT duo of Starks and Haynesworth has potential on the order of the Jag pair, Henderson and Stroud.� It figures the PS IOL will combo block those DT.� Last season, the gap between Faneca and Smith was penetrated on a regular basis.� Both players are capable in the run, both capable in 1:1 pas pro too; however, neither re-directs effectively.� What pressure the Titans can generate figures to come thru that gap, whether Odom under or the LB/S shooting.�
Tennessee O-side:�
Reports have it that Norm Chow has focused on tempo, rather than any dramatic system overhaul.� The Chow Plan involves getting the play to McNair quickly, having Air get the team to the LOS with a maximum of time remaining to read, and re-direct as necessary.� The short form is, Chow is relying on his veteran QB, one season removed from League co-MVP, to run his team.� Shorter, players make plays.� Shortest, KISS.�
Upfront, the Titans are strong inside with LG Zach Pillar, R3 1999, who is as powerful an OG as any in the League, OC Justin Hartwig, R6 2002, a good enough athlete that the Titans considered moving him out to OT and the redoubtable RG Benji Olsen, R5 1998.� This trio is experienced; they are as capable as any in the League.� Although Coach LeBeau had good success with middle blitzes last season, he�ll have no overmatch here.
Outside, the Titans may be exploited.� Brad Hopkins is out.� LT Michael Roos, R2 2005, will be making his first start.�� Roos looks the part, more or less, but it�s a long jump to the NFL from Eastern Washington.� Reports are Roos plays high and lacks functional strength.� Jacob Bell figures to start at RT; Bell, R5 2004, made 14 starts last year but all were at LG, in place of Pillar.� Bell is big; he is a technician.� However, he�s coming off knee surgery and played little in pre-season.� Most likely, his conditioning won�t get him through; if that�s so, then either Todd Williams, R7 2003, with 2 appearances in 2 seasons, or rookie David Stewart, R4, 2005, are next in line.�
The Steeler edge rushers should win against the Titan OT.� They�d better, because both starting Titan WR have a distinct size/speed advantage over the starting PS CB.� Drew Bennett, UDFA 2001, blew up last season (although, mainly with Billy Volek at the controls).� Bennett had nearly 1300 yards on 80 R including 11 TD.� He was last seen here in 2003, beating Chad Scott for 40 and then converting a RZ TD.�� Tyrone Calico, R2 2003, was the Matt Jones of that draft.� Calico is 6-4, 222#, ran a 4.34 at Indy.� Used as a 4th WR in 2003, he had just 18 R but 4 TD.� 7 of those grabs were for +20 and 2 for +40, that�s two more at 40 or better than the career total for the Steeler bantam duo, El Ced.� It�s unlikely Calico can do 4.34 two surgeries on; still, chances are he can get over on Williams.�
The Titans drafted 3 WR this spring: Courtney Roby, Brandon Jones and Roydell Williams.� All have good speed (Roby 4.38); all are on the smallish side (~6-0).� Of those Roby figures as #3.� That said, it�s questionable whether the Titans will show much multi-WR as, in general, their WR overmatch v. the PS base, not the PS packages.� Then too, multi-wide may bring the LeBeau quarter, a set Chow can�t have prepared for, having no film.������
The Titans drafted Ben Troupe, R2 2004, to play the part of Frank Wychek. �However, Troupe missed most of the x-hib season.� He�s questionable for Sunday; if active, he doesn�t figure to do much.� Same with #2 RB, Travis Henry, who had 5 carries in all August tilts.� Erron Kinney, R3 2000, a blocking TE generally, but capable in the dumpoff game will start at TE.� Bo Scaife, a R6 rookie, has shown some promise as a seam threat.� The Titans have a 4th string Kranchick too; 6�-8� former USC power forward Gregg Guenther, UDFA 2005.� Guenther led the all Titans with 11 x-hib receptions.� FWIW.�
The Titans do not have a lead FB; it figures that they�ll run out of twin TE or 3-wide far more than that old favorite, Neal leading George.� Chris Brown, R3 2003, did most of his damage last season out of the spread.� Brown had 11 starts in 2004, and 6 100+ yard games.� However, he�s not a plow-horse, (that�s why the Titans brought in Travis Henry).�� Brown�s top games came v. the lightweight Colts and run-weak Pack; if he has a big game Sunday, it figures to be against the Steeler packages, not the base.� Brown runs stretch effectively, little else.�
What to expect:
The Titans are a TOP team.� In general, they balance run and pass.� Even in years when Eddie George couldn�t do it, Tennessee still was among the top 10 in RA.� Reportedly, the 2005 plan is to split 30 carries per game between Brown and Henry; however, that is a doubtful outcome this Sunday.� Henry doesn�t figure to be up to speed and the Steeler run D does figure to be stout.� It is unlikely the Titans will establish the run but their need to possess the ball remains.� That is because it must be imperative to protect that young defense.��
All that suggests a ball control pass attack, which dovetails nicely with what must surely be the Titan�s O-side job #1, protect Steve McNair.��� Last December, McNair had a bone graft strengthening his sternum.� Another way of expressing this: over the years, Air had taken so many big shots that his chest about split open.� He did contemplate retirement this past winter but ultimately returned; IMO, that implies a covenant, between the franchise and the Franchise, as it were.� Beyond that, while Billy Volek has put up some nice fantasy numbers, the Titans didn�t win with him at the controls.� In sum: with Steve Air Maximus McNair, Tennessee can be competitive; without him, they cannot.� It really is that simple.� A few items to note Sunday:
� Because the Titans have little reason to believe their OT can hold up, expect a preponderance of three and five step drops.� Tennessee will move the pocket too.�
� If
the PS CBs play soft, as they did v. Carolina x-hib 4, then McNair will check
to that WR hitch, all day long.� Chow�s
system gives him latitude to check at any time.�
� Erron
Kinney figures to be in-line, helping the OT.�
However, Kinney has made a nice living catching dump-offs.� Those will be available Sunday.
� Both
Titan RBs can catch the ball.� This
requires either the PS LB or S cover; that may tend to reduce pressure on
McNair.�
Matchups:
Titan WR v. PS CB:� Big fast WR v. small, slower CB; it�ll be a recurring theme this year.� The Titans have an overmatch here but one likely to be attenuated by the upfront advantage the PS edge rushers should establish.� Nonetheless, the Titans will pick on the PS CB; at some point, they will go long to score.� Early, they may use shorter edge routes, stops or comebacks, confirming whether their OT can hold up, while setting up the vertical game.� They figure to probe the middle seam too, with Troupe, if possible, or a 3rd WR, or maybe Bo Scaife; finally, some combo route scrapping the safeties� help to the PS CB; more or less, a redeux of that 2004 AFCC, except, with these WR, the pattern is more likely to be flag than post.���
Norm Chow v. Dick LeBeau:� Coach Dick should be in the HOF, if not as a player or a coach, then certainly on a lifetime achievement basis.� LeBeau was an all-American at Ohio State; that doesn�t matter to the Lords of Canton but the fact that he was a 3-time Pro Bowl CB with 62 career INT, a quality position coach and present at the creation of the mighty zone blitz should.�� In contrast, Norm Chow will collect his first pro gameday check Sunday.� Chow was a hot collegiate coordinator but many of similar pedigree have failed, notably Steve Spurrier and John Stoops.� The difference is: Chow has coached under many conditions: rare air at BYU to pro style USC.� Generally, those others were familiar with one, and only one system.� Strikingly, Chow is a master mechanic, not a diva.� He may get the worst of it Sunday but if that happens it won�t be a matter of blind ego.�
Conclusion:
While the PS finished the x-hib season 3-1, their starters played poorly.� The D-ones were whipped in each of the last two games; the O-ones struggled throughout.� Tennessee was 1-3 in x-hib action, but their ones played well.� Pre-season means little, aside from counting the injuries, nearly nothing at all.� Still, the Titan frontliners did close on a high and the PS frontliners did not.� Injury-wise, well, the PS suffered little this summer but the same is true for Tennessee.� One difference, the Titans are getting a number of starters back; past Hampton, that�s not so here.�� Not immediately anyway.�
One thing for sure, the Steelers established nothing in August and that does contrast to the summer of 2004 when, win or lose, they did run the ball, relentlessly and effectively.� That focus carried throughout the 2004 season, when they lost no more in 5 months than they had that August alone.� In contrast, this summer, when they�ve done nothing with conviction.� Maybe that carries through all season, maybe not; if it does, it�ll be one long, long season.�
Finally:� though not intended as predictive, this, culled from Mill�s perennial opening day piece.�
WLLWLLWWLLLWW.
See a pattern?�
How about now?
WLL-WLL-WWLLL-WW
Complete.
Appendix:� table of games missed, 2004 Titans, partial list of players.
|
Player |
Pos. |
Games missed |
Remarks |
|
Steve McNair |
QB |
8 |
Team leader; NFL co-MVP in 2003.� Imagine the Colts with Peyton Manning for just � season. |
|
Zach Pillar |
LG |
14 |
O-line enforcer |
|
Chris Brown |
RB |
5 |
Brittle if brilliant |
|
Erron Kinney |
TE |
6 |
Had 41 R the year before; 276# blocking machine. |
|
Tyrone Calico |
3rd WR |
15 |
Projected as deep threat; physical overmatch for most DB. |
|
Abner Haynesworth |
LDT |
6 |
With Robaire Smith gone, was projected as lead DT.� |
|
Peter Sirmon |
LOLB |
16 |
Solid defender in all aspects |
|
Lance Schulters |
FS |
13 |
Secondary signal caller |
|
Tank Williams |
SS |
7 |
Underneath, he and Bullock make the Titan nickel go.�� |
|
Samari Rolle |
LCB |
4 |
Only man-on CB on the Titan roster |
Others:
Andre Woolfolk: missed 6 games
Tony Beckham: missed 11 games.�
Note:
Injuries cost the 2004 Titan starters 136 games.� That was a League high.� �