Stillers vs. Pats Pregame Analysis (Game 3, vs NE)

Stillers vs. Pats Pregame Analysis (Game #3, vs. NE)

 

The Stillers host the 1-1 Patriots on Sunday at 4:15 EST in a rematch of last year�s AFC Title game.�� The Pats are smarting from a sloppy loss to the Panthers last week, while the Stillers are riding high after 2 easy wins over softee teams.�

 

 * When the Pats have the ball, the usually reliable Tom Brady leads the offense after a relatively subpar game last week.� This is essentially the game Pats offense as the Stillers faced last year.� Tim Dwight was added as a backup WR, and rookie 1st rounder Logan Mankins mans the LG spot.� Thus, the Pats offensive modus operandi hasn�t changed � allow �Cool Hand� Brady to ably lead the offense; work Dillon into the line just to chew some clock and yardage; and let Brady work his magic with a very capable, deep corps of receivers and TEs.�

RB Corey Dillon and the NE ground game have struggled in each of their first 2 games, putting up very pedestrian numbers.� This has to be a concern for Billichick, and the going won�t be easy against the Stiller front 7.�

 

The Stiller defense has had a highly successful start to the season, smothering both opponents with relative ease.� The concern, of course, is that the Stillers haven�t faced a WR corps anywhere approaching the depth and skill of the Pats, nor have the Stillers faced a total offense package anywhere near as good as New England�s.�

 

The key matchup will be the pressuring Brady with the defensive front 7.� The Stillers have done well in generating pass pressure these first 2 games, but the brunt of that pressure has been created by defensive backs, not linemen or linebackers.� LeBeau has got to get Porter, Haggans, and Farrior untracked, and there clearly needs to be more pressure generated by the D-line.� We saw LT Matt Light take some abuse versus the Panthers, although, regrettably, the Stillers don�t have a Julius Peppers on the D-line.� The pressure is important when facing the Pats because, as you saw last week, Brady is actually human when he�s harassed and punished.� SS �Tasmanian Devil� Troy Polamalu has been wreaking havoc these past 2 weeks, and you can bet he�ll be doing more of the same on Sunday.� The danger versus a skilled maestro like Brady, is that Brady can and will go 4 and even 5-wide with a deep corps of receivers that includes Branch, Givens, Brown, Dwight, and Johnson, and is aided quite ably by fleetish TEs Graham and Watson.� 4 years ago in the AFCC, the Stillers were burned by using a LB (Jason GilDong) in coverage against WR David Patten, resulting in a Bledsoe TD pass.� Thus, against a WR crew that is, by far, the best the Stillers have faced in preseason and the regular season, the key is to not be overly reliant on Troy Pola or the DBs for pass pressure.�

 

* When the Stillers have the ball, Willie Parker and the gang will be looking to extend their 2-game string of smashmouth football on the Pats defense.�

 

Unlike the Pats offense, the Patsie defense has underdone considerable changes since last season.� Fat Keith Traylor is gone, as are reliable old warhorses Ted Johnson (retirement) and big-gamer Teddy Bruschi (medical).� Former Stiller Chad Brown mans an ILB spot, alongside former Chief Monty Beisel.� This clearly is the weak spot of the Pats defense.�

 

The D-line is solid, with all-world DE Rich Seymour leading the way.� Ty Warren and Vince Wilfork round out a very solid line.� Jarvis Green provides some quality depth.�

 

Former Stiller Mike Vrabel, who was forced to sit and rot for years behind the laughable likes of Jason GilDong, Carla Emmons, and Donte Jones, starts and stars at OLB.�� Ever so dangerous Rosie Colvin start opposite Vrabel, with the ageless Willie McGinnest serving as a capable backup and pass rush specialist.�

 

The Pats secondary is full of experience and savvy.� The scheme typically relies upon a 2-deep look that provides over the top support to the CBs, who can then play more aggressively.� SS Rod Harrison is the key cog in the secondary, as his possess the physical and mental skills to free lance, support the run, and defend the pass.� Poole, Samuel, Wilson, and Gay round out their top DBs,� None is a superstar, but given their scheme, they do what is asked of them in an adequate manner.��

 

The key matchup will be getting RB Willie Parker in the groove.� Parker has bolstered the Stiller offense these first 2 games, chewing up yardage and clock with rabid success.� The Panthers ran the ball with adequate production last week in beating the Pats. �Davis was held in check, but he and Foster combined for 114 yards on 32 carries.� Jets RB LaMont Jordan had solid success in week 1 versus the Pats defensive front.� And with old reliable warhorses Ted Johnson and Teddy Bruschi no longer around, the NE interior LB corps is suspect to the ground game.� But, ground work aside, Parker has got to be used a few times through the air on 1st & 2nd downs, especially on the short, crisp flares out in the flat � essentially long handoffs � where Parker�s speed and agility are a mismatch on most LBs.� If the Pats plan on heaping a lot of early down blitz pressure at Ben Roth, the short flip to Parker is a nice, effective way to alleviate that pressure.�

 

* Special Teams: �This game features 2 of the best kickers in the conference, Adam V. and Jeff Reed.� Former Stiller Josh Miller does the punting chores for NE.� Veteran speedster Tim Dwight gives the Pats a threat in the punt return game, as does the ageless Troy Brown if called upon.� Kevin Faulk handles the KO return chores.�

 

Key Individual Matchups:

 

* ROLB Joey Porter vs. LT Matt Light.�� Matthew took considerable abuse last week versus the Panthers.� Porter has been quiet the first 2 games, but should be rounding into peak shape after the August knee scope.� The Stillers need Porter to light up Light and strip or punish Brady.�

 

* Rich Seymour vs. Kendall Simmons.� If Seymour lines up on the left, Simmons will have his hands full.�� Simmons has played better than expected, but he�ll be in for a huge battle against Seymour.�

 

* Brett Keisel vs. Monty Beisel.� Other than on special teams, this is a matchup that obviously won�t occur.� I just happen to like the odd similarity of Keisel n� Beisel.�� This would induce considerable confusion for TV announcers who already have a difficult time pronouncing a simple name like �Haynes�.�

 

Keys for the Stillers:

 

�* Create Turnovers.�� In whipping the Patsies last Halloween, the Stillers created a couple big, early turnovers that pretty much sealed the win before halftime.� Last week, the Panthers� win was aided by 3 key turnovers.� To beat a great team like NE, you�ve got to play with the kind of abandon and tenacity that forces turnovers.� Obviously, in last year�s AFCC, that didn�t happen.� Scheme wise, you�ve got to attack and make things happen, rather than sitting back and waiting for something to happen.� If you sit and wait versus a terrific QB like Brady, more often than not the end result is watching a New England scoring celebration.� Cowher and LeBeau have got to instill the violent attack mindset in the team, not a meek, passive, wait-and-see approach.��

 

*� Force the NE offense to be 1-dimensional.� Because of Belichick�s cleverness, the Pats are at their best when they get a modicum of production from their ground game, enabling them to do whatever they want -- run or pass -- on 1st and 2nd downs. Last Halloween, with Dillon on the sidelines due to injury, the Pats were a 1-dimensional team that got engulfed.� Conversely, in last year�s AFCC, Dillon was able to grind out enough yards that the entire burden didn�t fall on Brady�s shoulders, er, arm.� Consequently, the 1st down TD bomb to Branch staked the Pats to the 10-0 lead, and they never looked back.� This is indeed a tough task to accomplish, but if the offense can stake the Stillers to an early lead, and if Dillon can at least be limited to 2 or 2-1/2 yards per carry, the Stillers can push the Pats into an easier-to-defend scheme of one-dimensionality.�

 

* Synopsis: It�s only week 3, and since the Stillers have at least 1 win, this is hardly a �must win� game.� Sure, it�d be nice to set the tempo for the season, as well as create an edge for homefield advantage, but none of that means fiddlesticks for playoff success under the leadership (sic) of �Mr. October�, Billy Cowher.� In fact, quite frankly, I�m not all that keyed up for this game.� To me, as last season showed, this game means absolutely nothing.� The Stiller whupped the Pats last year, thereby sustaining momentum that produced a 15-win season and ensuring home field advantage.� All that did was allow the Stillers to lay an egg in front of their home fans, not once, but TWICE, in the January 2005 playoffs.�� To me, this game will have some meaningful, useful purpose, if, and only if, it forces Billy Cowher to extract head from ass and make the necessary adjustments to scheme, attitude, and aggressiveness come January.� Otherwise, this game is just another early-season scrum, good for entertainment value and some player evaluation, but little else.��