2006 Draft, Day 1:

Typically, Day 1 projection starts early, with any number of one round mocks proffered before the pro post-season concludes.  However, those probes rarely evolve.  Rather, original takes, for good or ill, resonate, as if revelation may rise from recitation.  That�s a dubious MO, especially considering that most teams do signal their intentions.  Those may be divined, maybe, by tracking prospects invited in for interviews, past the Combine and Pro Day period. 

Each team may bring in thirty; somewhere in there, we might ferret out a few picks.  Tough duty though, digging through the wires, and not the kind of thing much featured here.  Fortunately, some professional journalists do take on that task, Jim Russell at Steel City Insider (SCI) being foremost locally.   Last year, his efforts were effective in predicting the Steelers� 2005 picks.  Now, with his generous permission, 2006 PS invitees are tabulated below:   

Table 1, PS invitees by unit per Steel City Insiders� original research:

• KFFL reports that Ethan Kilmer met with the PS recently.  Kilmer is a big WR/KR (6002, 204#) with plus speed (4.45 40) and good athleticism (70.83 KEI).  He did not play HS football.  After opening at Shippensburg, he went on to State College, there playing FS and ST in 2004, before moving to the O-side in 2005.  Had (15) receptions last year, including (6) v. FSU (aka CB U) in the Orange Bowl.  In sum: his profile is much like that of Domenick Hixon, except Hixon has more experience, if at a lower LOC.  

• Next Level Scouting reports OLB Brent Hawkins, WR Brandon Williams and QB Bruce Gradowski have scheduled visits.  All three have been discussed previously (Day 2 and O-skill respectively).  At his date, only Williams figures Day 1. 

Parsing those prospects, by type:

• Neither WR tabulated has distinguished himself as a return man.  This, combined with the deep Day 2 values attached to Hixon and TJ Rushing, suggests that the Steelers will be looking elsewhere R1/2.  They may as well: Jackson doesn�t figure to be available at 1.32 and Demetrius Williams isn�t going to be BPA at 64.  Note: Brandon Williams� primary value is as a return specialist; most years, he�d be a R3/4 prospect but could rise to R2 in this set.    

• White is considered the top big RB in this class, which is funny, considering that is notable in the absence of big RB.  White�s Pro Day woes have been well documented.  It also may be worth noting that, between the close of the Trojans� regular season and their title bout with Texas, he bloated from 235# (his program weight) to 253#.  Neither factor suggests value at 1.32.   Addai was to be the guy last season at LSU; however, he suffered a mid-season ankle injury and so limped to the close.  Durability has been a problem for this player and, at the pro level that, typically, doesn�t change for the better.  Of course, Curtis Martin is one conspicuous exception, but Joseph Addai is not Curtis Martin.   

• Both Colledge and Spencer were LT last season; both figure as leftside swingmen in the show.  The Steelers� interest in these prospects does not augur well for Trai Essex.  Willie Colon played LT too but at 6022 he is built along the lines of Kendall Simmons.  This suggests he is an OG.  Colon is said to be an intelligent player, with some natural girth.  As such, he, possibly, may be an OC conversion project.    

• It is disturbing that no DE appears on the PS invitee list.  There does seem to be a clear need for a 2-gap stuffer, and there does seem to be a R3/4 value cluster to include: Dusty Dvoracek, Rodrique Wright, Barry Cofield, Julian Jenkins and Jason Hatcher.  On the plus side, the Steelers have expended only (20) invitations, to date.  They are permitted ten more, up to (30).   (Note: (20) invites presently per Table 1, by post-date, there could be more. Added 19 April: Kilmer makes (21)). 

• While both Carpenter and Henderson were productive players within quality programs, neither can be described as quick twitch elite type edge rushing phenoms.  On the plus side, either may figure as SILB; others in that mode (OLB or potentially SILB with rush skills) include: Chris Gocong and Kai Parham. 

• The Steelers� priority is apparent in that (5) of (20) invitees are S prospects.  Whitner and Allen figure as R1/2, Bullocks R2.  Most regard Bing as a R2 pick, with Alston R3/4.  IMO, the opposite is so. 

Colon, Rushing, Hixon, Sandidge, Henderson and Busing must be considered Day 2 picks.  The remaining (14), presumably Day 1 invitees, are parsed below, per those population figures underlying our value cluster notion.  Note: prospect rankings are taken from Rich Gosselin�s lists.  Since Mr. Gosselin gets his info direct from (26) team offices, we may consider that most accurately predicts prospects� present availability, if not their subsequent performance. 

Table 2:  Invitees/typical spot.

It is well understood that this is a down year at WR, and an up year, most say, at OLB.  That tends to elevate Carpenter towards 1.32 and depress Williams towards 2.64.  However, neither OLB nor WR are likely R1/R2 gets; rather, safety (with 5 invitees), and RB (with 3) seem to be the Steelers� twin priorities.  In that event, the PS may hope for either Whitner or Allen at 1.32, with a move towards White or Addai in R2.  Alternatively, they may draft White first, if available, and then move up from 64 to Bullocks.  Let�s see how this tracks per that trade value chart previously shown (for the most part):

Table 3:  Draft value chart, applied to PS picks.

That top play may net either White and Bullocks, or Whitner/Allen and White/Addai.  However, vacating 96, the PS would pass on those DE likely to be available in that frame.  That said, their 5.164 tacked to 4.129, may yield 4.112, somewhere in the mid-point of a R3/4 DE cluster.  In that event, the take would be: S and RB Day 1 with three R4 then (1) pick in each of R5, R6 and R7.  Eight in all; two Day 1 and six Day 2. 

Conceivably, the fourth play, aka �both�, might yield: White, Spencer and Alston but that�s doubtful since Alston figures to be gone somewhere in the top 75.  If the Steelers stick at 32, 64 and 96, then their invitee list seems to yield: S, O-line and, possibly, Henderson.  However, in considering that the PS don�t mock past R2, their (so-called) ring of 5 may simply amount to this:

Table 4:  gathered from the invitee list, PS two round ring of five (per) plus:

Be that as it may, a fair number of the PS Day 1 invitees seem to be overvalued, or otherwise misfit.  Starting from the top of Table 1:

• Demetrius Williams: toughness has been questioned and he�s proven no return ability.  IMO, Greg Jennings is a better R2 get although the PS evidently prefer Brandon Williams.  Either way, it�s most likely that the best receiver at 64 will be a TE, not a WR.

• Lendale White: pure boom or bust pick and, as such, not a fit.  A team with just two players remaining from their class of 2003 cannot afford an early round bust.  It�s worth noting that White did operate behind a USC O-line featuring three 2006 Day 1 prospects to include: Winston Justice #2 OT (R1), Deuce Lutui, #3 OG (R2) and Fred Matua #5 OG (R3).   In the show, he�s not likely to see that kind of overmatch upfront. 

• Joseph Addai: fast, willing and has some versatility but in the end is just a guy lugging a troublesome injury history. 

• Maurice Drew: a fine return prospect but a puzzling fit, when considered as a RB. 

• Darnell Bing: dubious fit single high.  If the Steelers are looking for an in the box safety, Eric Smith will present R3/4.  If they�re looking for cutting edge size at the safety position then Justin Hamilton (6021, 218#, 4.53 and KEI=72) will present from, say, R5 on.  Hamilton�s are Pro Day numbers as are these, for Bing: (6020, 227#, 4.52 and KEI = 69.33).  While Hamilton is a projection, like any Day 2 pick, that�s true of Bing too, as a FS.  Having had visits with Jacksonville, KC and Cincinnati, Hamilton may no longer be the most underrated player in this class, but it�s a good bet Bing remains among the more over-hyped.

Ok then. 

The fact is that this draft presents considerable early value at  both DB (whether pure CB, S/CB hybrids or S) and OLB.  However, with the notable exception of Bobby Carpenter, most of the OLB prospects fit as WILB, where the Steelers are well stocked.  Of course, the same may be said of CB, where the Steelers have drafted in each of the past three years.  If not Colclough, both Taylor and McFadden are developing.  That so, neither R1/2 CB nor WILB is an obvious get. 

However, considering that Taylor�s long-term deal remains undone, to date, and that Colclough has yet to show, the term not-for-long may apply to the Steelers� CB profile, when considered on a 2-year line.  Surely, the PS FO has a grip on the Taylor situation, as we cannot.  Regardless, it is worth noting that most of the top OLB are seniors while the elite DB are split, senior and underclassmen.  This suggests that following DB classes may be depleted, while OLB will persist.  If so, CB may remain an early consideration, along with S and SILB.   In outline:

• Regardless of system, coverage is job #1 for all DB; speed and COD is a factor in that.  However, the Steelers� base 3-4 Cover 3 is (virtually) unique in requiring all 4 DB to run, hit and blitz.  In this year�s class, those best fitting the profile include: CB Tye Hill and Richard Marshall, hybrids Michael Huff, Donte Whitner and Jason Allen and S Daniel Bullock.   Additionally, CB Antonio Cromartie has the tool kit, as does S Jon Alston. 

• As many as ten DB carry R1 grades.  However, over the past six drafts, no more than six DB have been taken in R1.  This suggests considerable value persisting into R2.  Early, R2A/B, that does figure, but not for long as, after that opening burst, just (4) more DBs carry R2/early3 grades.  We may add Alston for (15) but either way, be aware that the standard range thru R2 is 12-14 DB, with a high of 16, last year.  In sum: DB talent figures to run ahead of the Steelers� first spot, but revert to par, or worse, by 2.64.

• A lack of elite talent at WR is will effect the take at other spots.  For several seasons, WR has been the main Day 1 haul; no single position has yielded more picks.  That won�t happen this year, and the impact is most likely to be felt R1.  While there may be 11-14 WR carrying R3 or better grades, there are not 3-7 carrying R1.   This suggests an early hold at WR, with a compensating run thru R2 at DB, OLB and, probably, TE. 

The sum suggests that, if possible, the PS move back from 1.32.  DB comparable to those available in R1C (say, 21 on) figure to persist thru R2A (say, 2.42).  If the PS can make a deal, that should net a high R4, which may yield that elusive DE.  Further, those three comps seemingly compel the PS to yoke their own R4 and R5 picks, moving up in both R2 and R3.  In the end prospects likely to be available at: R2A, R2B, R3B and R4A seem a better fit for the 2006 PS than those at 32, 64, 96 and 129.      

Table 5,: Day 1, invitees or otherwise:

• Prospect name indicates +70 KEI. 
• Of note:  Greg Jennings has sufficient toughness to be considered, by some, a DB prospect.
• Several WILB quality prospects are not tabulated here.  Those include: DeMeco Ryans, Rocky McIntosh and Gerris Wilkinson.  On a needs basis, WILB is not an obvious R1/2 get.

Coming attractions:

• Small Board of Big Value (SBBV); will flesh out Day 1 above, and itemize others per R4, R5 and remainder.
• Draft day one round mock (maybe). 
• 2006 Draft Wrap: good night and good luck. 

Acknowledgments: 

Combine stats and Pro Day results cited in seven prior articles back to the KEI Review are from Frank Cooney�s Draft Scout (DS).  That site, already a valuable resource, has the high ambition to post (on-line) both Combine results and scouting reports from 1983 forward.  My highest recommendation is nano-thanks for value (already) received, but there it is.

Again, thanks to Jim Russell of Steel City Insider for permitting use of his work in tracking PS invitees.