Smitter�s Week 5 Picks vs the spread
Last week:�� 10-4�� Overall: 32-28� 53.3%
FLG�s last week: 2-1�
FLG�s overall: 6-5� 54.5%
Well, it seems like consulting with Gus, the 2nd
most famous groundhog in Pennsylvania helped me last week. This week, I will
continue looking at how teams have done in the past 5 years in their first game
after their bye week. Two of last week�s teams that had off, Chicago and
Cleveland play each other. Personally, I think it should be that way all the
time, seems to me it is fairer for teams. Oh, well, no one has asked me, so on
to the picks.
Chicago (+ 3 �) over Cleveland � In the
last 5 years, Chicago is 3-2 after the bye week, and Cleveland is 1-3. (In the
31-team NFL, in 2000, Cleveland�s bye week was in week 17). The winner of this
game is 2-2. Chicago could very well be in first place with its 2-2 record.
Green Bay (- 3 �) over New Orleans/San Antonio � As bad
as the Packers have been, they are still in their division race. In a year when
7-9 might win the division, the Pack get in the win column this week.
Tampa Bay (- 3 �) over New York Jets � Holy cow,
79-year old Vinny Testaverde is QB�ing the Jets this week. Enough said.
St Louis (- 3 �) over Seattle � The NFC
West has the makings of going down to the wire this year. Teams cannot afford
to lose home games against divisional opponents. The Rams won�t.
Atlanta (- 3 �) over New England � Playing
Michael Vick, even if he is not 100%, on the turf, with a hurting defense
spells trouble. New England falls to 2-3.
Miami (+ 2 �) over Buffalo � Miami is 4-1 the week
after their bye the last 5 years, they are 2-1 vs Buffalo when playing them at
home in Sept or October. The Dolphins may be this year�s San Diego. (doubtful,
but a win puts them at 3-1)
Detroit (- 1 �) over Baltimore � After
watching parts of last week�s game, I don�t think the Ravens defense is as good
as people think it is. I think Detroit has the goods to win this game.
Tennessee (+ 3 �) over Texas � Maybe in
addition to my FLG�s, I can have the WC�s (the Who Cares games). This would be
one of them. I think the bitterness the Texans� have over being cheated last
week will linger this week.
Indianapolis (- 14 �) over San Francisco � Alex
Smith faces tough defense in first NFL start. Peyton is on a roll.
Arizona (+ 3 �) over Carolina � Maybe,
just maybe, the win in Mexico City last Sunday night will be the start of
something big in Arizona, like many predicted.
Philadelphia (- 3 �) over Dallas � As long
as TO doesn�t implode, taking the rest of the team with him, Philly will be
hard to beat in the NFC.
Denver (- 7 �) over Washington � The
Redskins unbeaten streak comes to an end in the attitude of Denver.
Jacksonville (- 3 �) over Cincinnati � Cincy goes
on the road, in front of national spotlight, for what may be first real test of
the year. They fail, as Jax defense stymies Carson Palmer and gang.
STEELERS (- 3 �) over San Diego �
Steelers only 2-3 after bye weeks, but the game is on a Monday night, where the
Steelers usually come out firing. San Diego gets the national spotlight for the
first time in like 9 years at home. They, like Cincy, will fail their test.
My First Look Goodies (FLG) for the week are:
Tampa Bay (- 3 �) over NY Jets
Indianapolis (- 14 �) over San Francisco
Jacksonville (- 3 �) over Cincy