�2005 Game 16 Preview
If
San Diego beats Denver Saturday, the Steelers are in the playoff rounds.� That�s a good bet, considering Denver has
the #2 seed, win or lose.� If the
Chargers fold, well, the PS will need a win, or a KC loss, to get in.� The Chiefs, playing for their playoff lives,
host Cincinnati, a team playing for the #3 seed; the outward extrapolation
being an opportunity to host NE in the AFCC, rather than sally to the
Razor.� We�re a distance from that point
presently.
Either
way, the tilt at Heinz figures as mismatch.�
Detroit is just that bad.� Their
strength of victory (SOV) is .293.� That
is #31 among all NFL teams.� Only AZ is
lower.� SOV comes to this: Detroit hasn�t
won many, and they haven�t beaten anyone at all.� Here is the list: New Orleans, Arizona, Cleveland, Baltimore and Green
Bay; bottomfeeders all.� Any given
Sunday, sure, as is said but not this Sunday, not this team, sporting a lame-duck
GM, a lame-duck HC and a lame-duck QB.�
Needing to win or no, the PS should dispatch the Lions.� Still, commencing with their better
half:� ��������
D-side
comparison, Detroit and Pittsburgh:�
|
|
PPG |
YPG |
Plays
faced |
Rush YPC |
Pass YPA |
v.
QB Rating |
Sack
% |
Takes |
3rd
down |
Penalty Yards |
|
Steelers |
15.8 #3 |
282.4 #3 |
939 #19 |
3.4 T-1 |
6.33 #5 |
72.2 #5 |
8.2% #5 |
28 T-13 |
38.1% #15 |
984 #29 |
Lions |
20.7 #18 |
321.8 #21 |
945 #21 |
4.1 T-20th
|
6.73 #15 |
78.5 #16 |
6.0% #23 |
29 T-9th
|
39.4% #20 |
938 #23 |
- In the past 2 weeks,
the PSD has risen from 9th to 3rd in scoring
defense, 8th to 3rd in yards per game, 14th
to 5th in YPA, 12th to 5th in QB rating
against and 25th to 15th in 3rd down
conversions against.� They�ve held
steady, and strong, at T-1 in YPC and 5th in sack rate but,
unfortunately, continue to lag at T-13th in takes.� Additionally, they remain one of the
more penalized D-units in football.�
- The Lion D is mediocre
in most aspects, slightly better against the pass than run.� Their long suite, such as it is, would
be takeaways.� It�s not that
they�ve faced any inordinate amount of plays (on the season, just 6 more
than the PSD).� Rather, they�re beat-up,
and not especially talented.�
Lions
D-personnel:�
Like
every other team in the NFC North, Detroit plays the UT/NT variant of the
4-3.� Shaun Rogers is on the nose
and Dan Wilkerson plays UT; both are large and both are talented.� In fact, Rogers is as good as any NT in the
show.� Yards between the guards figure
to come hard for the PSO; however, the Lions can be had on the edges, to some
extent.�
RDE
James Hall broke out last season but has struggled with injury
throughout this campaign. ��LDE Cory
Redding is a reasonably solid guy, leading the Lions with 5.5 stuffs;
however, Starks can engulf this player.�
Package DE Kalimba Edwards leads the team with 7.0 sacks;
Edwards, an OLB/DE hybrid at USC (southland Gamecocks) could be, for the PS FO,
an UFA of interest next winter.�
The
Lion LB corps is beat-up.� Earl Holmes,
Boss Bailey, Teddy Lehman and Alex Lewis are on IR.� That�s the projected starting unit and a top backup outside.� The survivors are: WOLB James Davis, MLB
Wali Rainer and SOLB Donte� Curry.�
On the season, this trio has combined for: no sacks, no INT, no PD and
just 6 TFL.� There�s not a starting 3 in
the show that has done less.�
A similar
case behind where CB Fernando Bryant is on IR, as is FS Terrence Holt.� RW McQuarters, toast from coast to
coast, is playing for Bryant.�
McQuarters bites hard on all double moves, lacks size and makeup speed;
it is said he has, at best, a tenuous grasp of any coverage scheme. Jon
McGraw, an athletic refugee from the NJJ, is in for Holt.� Well, maybe: McGraw, a 3-year fixture in the
Jets� treatment rooms, is on the injury report this week too.�
The
survivors are pretty good.� Dre� Bly
is a quality cover CB; although he�s been playing with a wrap on his hand about
the size of a newborn, he has had a pick in each of the past two games.� On the season 6, which leads all Lions.� SS Kenoy Kennedy leads the team in
tackles; Kennedy is a quality defender when matched against TE but not WR.� He supports willingly, but is Lee-Flowers-slow
to the play.� NCB Andre Goodman,
another soon-to-be UFA of possible interest to the PS FO, has 10 PD and a couple
of picks.� Goodman, a college teammate
of Sheldon Brown (and K. Edwards), does have some speed.� Like all Lion CB, he is on the small side
and, like all Lion CB, highly suspect in run support.�
What
to expect:�
The
Lion D does two things well: they stuff the inside run and they cover TE.� In all other aspects, they are 3rd
quartile.� Week 17 in a lost season, they�re
probably looking for a reason to quit.�
If the PSO takes care of the ball early, which means, essentially,
neutralizing Bly, then the Detroit O will find a way to lose it.�
Key
matchups:
�
- PS IOL v. Detroit DT: The PS IOL will have
to tandem this pair.� If they get
off early, it�s going to be a struggle but, if the Lions fall back, these
big men may pack it in.� They�ve
done so before.� Rogers in
particular is a load at the POA, and he can get gut pressure.� He is 2nd on the team with
5.5 sacks.� That�s not great,
except by NT standards.�
- Marvel Smith v. James
Hall:� The Lions have been susceptible to runs
at OLT.� On the downside, the 2005 Steelers
haven�t gotten it done that way.��
That is uncharacteristic, as, since 2001, the PSO has run left with
far better effect than right.�
However, that was then and this isn�t.� This week, it�s weakness on weakness: PS run left, Detroit�s
rightside run-D.���
- PS RB v. Detroit
LB:� Early in the season,
when the PSO 3rd down woes first were noted here, it was
observed that teams successfully converting typically had TE and RB
accounting for 40% to 50% of all receptions.� At that time, the PSO was around 25%.� That ratio has improved; Miller, Parker
and Haynes have had their moments.�
However, the PSO remains below standard here, especially with
respect to the RB haul.� See:
|
Position |
Receptions |
Remarks |
%
of 221 completions |
|
WR |
137 |
Ward
has 68.� El Ced 60. |
62% |
|
TE/FB |
� 47 |
Miller
has 36.� Kreider is next with 7. |
21% |
|
RB |
� 37 |
Parker
has 17.� Haynes is next with 10 |
17% |
Since no pro set is more susceptible to abuse than the Detroit LB group, involving the PS RB in the pass game should be a go this week.� On the other side of the ball:
O-side Comparison, Detroit and Pittsburgh
|
|
PPG |
YPG |
TOP |
Rush YPG |
Pass YPA |
QB Rating |
Sack
% Against |
Turnovers |
3rd
down |
Penalty Yards |
|
Steelers |
23.6 #8 |
321.2 #16 |
31:11 #8 |
134.9 #6 |
8.93 #1 |
103.4 #2 |
7.7% #24 |
21 6th
|
35.2% #24 |
861 #14 |
Lions |
15.1 #28 |
267.4 #27 |
29:19 #22 |
91.1 #26 |
6.09 #28 |
68.7 #32 |
5.8% #12 |
28 #23 |
37.2% #20 |
791 #10 |
� Passing stats are for Roethlisberger and Harrington as individuals; those are not team totals.�
� In the past 3 games, the PSO has rushed for about 180 per, rising from #9 to #6 in that department
� Five teams have fewer turnovers than the Steelers; all are in the playoffs.� Nine teams have more turnovers than Detroit; none are in the playoffs.
At #27 in YPG, Detroit is in a clump with the PSD�s three most recent victims.� Minnesota, Cleveland and Chicago are: 25th, 26th and 28th.��� That is to say: while the Steeler defense has had a nice run over the past three games, level of competition may be a factor.� Setting yardage aside, how about these scoring numbers?�
Recent opponents� persistent scoring futility:�
|
|
O-side
TD |
League
rank |
Remarks |
|
Chicago |
21 |
29th
|
Only
SF, Cleveland and the NJJ have scored fewer TD |
|
Minnesota |
24 |
22nd
|
Ahead:
Tennessee with 26 and Tampa Bay with 28.�
The Bucs and Bears (above) look to be PO teams; (11) others tabulated here
will sit out those rounds.� |
|
Cleveland |
18 |
31st
|
Only
SF has scored fewer TD, 16. |
|
Detroit
|
22 |
T-23rd
|
Tied
with these bottomfeeders: New Orleans, Houston, Baltimore, Buffalo and
Arizona |
Lions� O personnel:�
Detroit has some parts but in totality, nothing at all.� In general, the talent on their roster is absent want-to while the want-to types lack talent.� That begins upfront:� Both LT Jeff Backus and OC Dominic Raiola are good technicians and high try types; however, neither has sufficient bulk and Backus lacks some athleticism.� LG Kyle Kosier is just a guy; he�s taken over for UFA Rich DeMulling, who had some success in Indy but was exposed in Motor City.� RG Damien Woody has all the ability in the world but is susceptible to bloat; originally a Pat, Woody is marooned in the Motor City.� 2nd year RT Kelly Butler may be the most effective player on the Lion O-line.� Butler has been solid in pass pro (true in general for this O-line, which is 12th in allowed sack rate).� Although the Lions generally have run the ball poorly, they have been effective running at the RT spot, behind Butler.�
As is well known, the Lions have drafted WR R1 in each of the past 3 years.� That troika: Mike Williams, Roy Williams and Charles Rogers have combined for 85 receptions, 1203 yards and 9 TD.� Nice numbers for one guy, a bit short of Santana Moss 2005 (for example), but for three? �Not so much.� Roy Williams has the lion�s share: 42/656/7.� Roy is a one-man highlight reel making plays few can match.� However, he is not a player you can win with; that is because he routinely blows the routine play.
Neither Mike Williams nor Charles Rogers start; Scottie Vines, 3rd year former UDFA out of mighty Wyoming, does.� Vines, another high try guy, is strictly an underneath, possession type; his 36 receptions include no TD.� TE Marcus Pollard rounds out the receiving set; Pollard is on the team lead in receptions (42) and has a couple TD.� However, at age 33, he is no impact player.�
�Kevin Jones had over 1100 yards rushing in his rookie season, 2004, but has just 586, at 3.5 YPC, this year.� Artose Pinner and Shawn Bryson get some time; neither are game changers.� Excluding one 77-yard run by Bryson, both are in Jones� territory, cumulatively 3.5 YPC.� Presumably, the O-line has some culpability in that but more so the pass game.�
For 4 seasons, QB Joey Harrington has been consistently inconsistent throwing and, reportedly, has progressed not at all in reading defenses, or assigning protection.� It�s a good bet that the Harrington Era is drawing to a close.� �In ten starts this season, Harrington has 16 turnovers, 12 INT and 4 fumbles.� That approaches Duante Culpepper at his very worst.� Harrington�s INT rate, 4.0%, is exceeded by just 3 QB: Culpepper, Favre and McCown. Harrington�s overall numbers are bad; his numbers outdoors are worse and his numbers on grass are worst of all.� Sooner or later, he will give away the game.
In sum: like Chicago, Detroit has just one WR, an inaccurate QB and a RB who, while talented, can�t win on his own.� If the Steelers have anything to play for Sunday, expect the PSD to deliver another beatdown to another hapless foe.�
Keys:
Raiola v. Hampton: Big Case has flogged backups for two weeks running.� Raiola is no scrub but he does lack the bulk to anchor.� Stopping the run begins here, where the PS have an overwhelming advantage.�
Limit Roy Williams:� the PSD has had good success against #1 WR.� Williams has 7 of Detroit�s 12 TD receptions.� Limit Williams, as most teams have, and the Lions are through.� ��
Set the edges:� Kevin Jones does have field-flipping ability.� He hasn�t done it this season, but he is the one guy who can make a difference.� ��
Back of the book:
Following an article posted here in August, The Run Game, then and now, this, to be updated as the season progresses:
2005 PS run/pass ratio, by half and tally:
|
|
First Half |
Second Half |
Final |
||||||
|
|
Run |
Pass |
Scoring |
Run |
Pass |
Scoring |
Run |
Pass |
Score |
|
v.
Titans |
16 |
� 9 |
20-7 |
25 |
�2 |
14-0 |
41 |
11 |
34-7 |
|
@
Texans |
15 |
16 |
20-0 |
17 |
�6 |
� 7-7 |
32 |
22 |
27-7 |
|
v.
Patriots |
11 |
12 |
10-7 |
10 |
21 |
10-16 |
21 |
33 |
20-23 |
|
@
Chargers |
18 |
16 |
14-7 |
13 |
12 |
10-15 |
31 |
28 |
24-22 |
|
v.
Jaguars |
11 |
14 |
14-10 |
14 OT:
3 |
17 OT:
2 |
� 3-7 �� 0-06 |
28 |
33 |
17-23 |
|
@Bengals |
14 |
� 9 |
�7-6 |
29 |
�6 |
20-7 |
43 |
15 |
27-13 |
|
v.
Ravens |
13 |
19 |
10-10 |
13 |
15 |
10-9 |
26 |
34 |
20-19 |
|
@
Packers |
� 9 |
10 |
13-3 |
16 |
11 |
� 7-7 |
25 |
21 |
20-10 |
|
v.
Browns |
14 |
21 |
17-7 |
24 |
� 8 |
17-14 |
38 |
29 |
34-21 |
|
@
Ravens |
� 6 |
17 |
�6-13 |
11 OT:
4 |
26 OT:
5 |
�� 7-0 � 0- 3 |
21 |
48 |
13-16 |
|
@
Colts |
14 |
16 |
7-16 |
10 |
15 |
0-10 |
24 |
31 |
7-26 |
|
v.
Bengals |
16 |
20 |
17-21 |
12 |
23 |
14-17 |
28 |
43 |
31-38 |
|
v.
Bears |
14 |
12 |
14-3 |
30 |
8 |
7-6 |
44 |
20 |
21-9 |
|
@Vikings |
10 |
13 |
10-3 |
23 |
9 |
8-0 |
33 |
22 |
18-3 |
|
@
Browns |
21 |
16 |
20-0 |
14 |
7 |
21-0 |
35 |
23 |
41-0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
By definition:
� Kneeldowns are deleted from run totals.
� Pass attempts include both sacks and scrambles.�
� Aborted snaps, ala v. Green Bay and Jacksonville, are not counted either as runs or passes.�
Notes:
� The Steelers have run more than passed just 5 times in all H1.� Those were 5 of the more impressive wins this season: Tennessee, @ San Diego, @ Cincinnati, Chicago and @ Cleveland.� However, this run differential was slight; 21 total and never more than 7 in any single game.
� The largest H1 unbalance came in Baltimore, Ravens 2.� Surprisingly (considering their #3 QB had the reins), the Steelers were 11 to the pass side.� No surprise, they got nothing done.�
� Most of the Steelers� run/pass bulge was built over 6 second halves: Tennessee, Houston, Cincinnati 1, Cleveland 1, Chicago and Minnesota.� A double-digit differential each time: overall the edge is 109, 148 runs and 39 passes.�
� The Steelers are 9-2 in games when they�ve led at the break, 1-0 when tied and 0-3 when trailing.� Figure it out.�
�