2005 Game 4 Preview

 

Over three games, the PSO has done many things well.� Roethlisberger remains at the top of the heap in both QB rating and the all-important YPA.� Willie Parker remains near the top in YPC.� Most important, they�ve taken care of the ball, (1) turnover in 3 games being contributory to the Steelers� (+7) in takeaway margin.�

 

Generally, (+7) over three games would be good for 3-0, (+2) in any given game being a winner at about 90%.� However, that�s not the way it played; in fact, the Steelers are 2-1 and, considering the action merely on a statistical basis, the key has been that, uncharacteristically, the Steelers have lost TOP in 2 of 3 tilts.� For a team lacking D-side depth, especially a 3-4 team lacking depth at LB, that�s not good.�

 

This skew from the TOP-heavy tradition here is so obvious that even the local mavens have grasped it, although none have issued any cogent analysis. Here�s the short form: first, it�s not merely an O-side matter; as we�ll see the PSD is #30 in 3^rd down stops, allowing a genuinely awful 48.7%.� Quite obviously, the PSD could get their rest if they got off the field on 3^rd down.� O-ward, well, the standard fix proffered, Bettis and/or Staley for Parker, just isn�t going to get it.� Yes, the Steelers do have to regain clock control but swapping out RB would have all the efficacy of swabbing iodine on a carcinoma.� That is because, on the O-side, the problem is not with the run game.� It�s with the pass.� Look:

 

Roethlisberger, pass stats by down:

 

	Comp/PA	Comp. %	YPA	TD	INT	Sacked	QB rating
First down	11/17	64.7	17.29	4	0	4	147.7
Second down	16/24	66.7	11.21	2	0	0	132.1
�Third down	8/19	42.1	� 6.58	0	0	1	� 64.6

 

Roethlisberger�s numbers are worse on third than any other down.� As a consequence, the Steelers are among the League�s bottomfeeders in 3^rd down conversions, ranking T-24 at 35.3%.� Sure, 3^rd can be a tough passing down, but many teams have had success, including:�

 

Team rank in 3^rd down conversions; QB ratings, all downs v. third down:

 

Team	League Rank in 3rd down %	%	QB	Overall QB rating	3rd down QB rating
San Diego	First	50%	Brees	� 99.2	124.1
Washington	2nd	49%	Brunell	� 84.8	102.4
Tampa Bay	3rd	47.6%	Griese	� 78.6	� 95.8
Carolina	4th	47.5%	Delhomme	� 72.3	� 86.1
Dallas	5th	46.4%	Bledsoe	� 96.2	120.6
Pittsburgh	T-24th	35.3%	Roethlisberger	131.6	� 64.6%

 

Every one of those QB is better on 3^rd down than any other; better on that crucial down than overall.� That said: it�s highly likely that any of those teams would give their guy for Roethlisberger (well, maybe not the Bolts as, back in April 2004, they did prefer their now #2 QB Phil Rivers to Big Ben).� Still, presuming it�s not a QB thing, then maybe it�s scheme, or, rather, a matter of utilization.� See:

 

TE/RB contribution to the pass game, per teams successful on 3^rd down v. the PS:

 

Team	All completions	To TE or RB	% to TE or RB	Remarks
San Diego	71	34	48%	Gates and LT led the way
Washington	54	23	42%	Skins spread the load.
Tampa Bay	73	34	46%	WR lead the way but TE & RB are options 3-6.�
Carolina	49	20	41%	WR Steve Smith has nearly half of all receptions.� However, the Panthers do get it to others.�
Dallas	74	32	43%	Witten and Julius Jones mean to Dallas what Gates and LT do to SD.�
Pittsburgh	35	9	26%	No RB or TE has more than 2 catches

 

It doesn�t take a dominating pair such as Gates and LT to carry the load.� Teams like Washington and T-Bay spread it around.� Either way, there is a strong correlation between TE/RB involvement in the pass game and success on 3^rd down.� Moving the chains is a critical aspect of clock control, one where the Steelers have fallen far short.

 

That�s not true of the San Diego Chargers, both #1 in conversions and the Steelers� host for MNF.� By chance in NFL bye-land, the Pats were the last opponent for both, so this direct comparison:

 

Last game, D-side results:�

 

	Steelers	Chargers	Remarks on the Bolts performance
Points allowed	23	17	All about TOP, both ways.�
Total yards allowed	426	304	Steelers� lack of depth exposed in Q4; Bolts depth untested.�
TOP against	35:23	23:22	On a yards/minute basis, the Bolts do not impress.�
Takeaways	3	2	Two meaningless takes when the game was over, including Matt Cassell�s 1st career INT
Sacks	3	1	Against the Pats� all-rook left, neither team got meaningful pressure.�
Big plays allowed	4: 0 run/ 4 pass.�	6: 1 run/5pass	Defined:� run greater than 10 yards; pass greater than 20 yards

 

Here, many times, the Philadelphia Eagles have been praised for their foresight, one prime example being 2002, when they drafted 3 DB (Sheppard, Brown and Lewis) over R1 & R2 in advance of the departures of Troy Vincent, Bobby Taylor and Al Harris.� Today, each player starts and the Eagles are at the top of the League�s pass defense rankings.

 

In 2003, the Bolts drafted 3 DB in R1 & R2.� Those players: CB Sammy Davis, CB Drayton Florence and SS Terrence Kiel joined 2002 R1 CB Quentin Jammer.� Subsequently, San Diego picked up former R1 CB Jamar Fletcher and former Pack FS/CB Bhahwoh Jue.� Although this set does have some talent, the results have not been good.� In 2004, the first year under Wade Phillips, the Bolts were #26 in pass defense; this year, they are, again, #26 in pass defense.

 

Jammer was born too late; a Pro Bowler for sure, had he played in the Mel Blount Era, but laboring under the Manning Rules he is merely a PI penalty machine.� Florence has size and serious straightline speed; that he leads the team with (4) PD suggests he is putting his skills together.� Davis has the best pure cover skills of the top 3 CB; however, he has been held back by injury (concussion, broken leg) and illness (pre-camp appendectomy 2004).� Kiel is a nice complementary player but not a difference-maker and Jue, while the most productive of the 2005 Bolt DB to date, did wash out of Green Bay, locus of one of the more challenged DB sets in all of football.�

 

Still, strictly on a skills basis, these young Bolts are on par with those new Eagle DB.� There are two differences: first, SD does not have a Brian Dawkins to steady the crew (few do); second, the Bolts do not have a pass rush.� While Philadelphia annually heaps up sacks at an elite rate, San Diego was 29^th last year.� This year, they are 10^th gross (having played 4 games) but at 2.5 per game are headed towards a just-about-average 40.�����

 

Last year, jumbo OLB Steve Foley led the Bolts with (10) sacks.� Foley then seemed to have resurrected what had been an injury-plagued career; however, this season he is playing through some undisclosed abdominal injury.� Since he is not practicing, he has to be considered vulnerable.� Ben Leber, another holdover, has picked up a couple coverage sacks.� Leber is a solid, technically sound guy but, long-term, he is not the answer because he is not a difference-maker.� 2005 R1 rook Shawne Merriman may be; however, Merriman held out last summer, missed some camp, then got hurt, missed some more camp and, amazingly, is off to a slow start.

 

That said, Merriman will get off and when he does, the Bolts� pressure will go up.� Way up.� Merriman was the first of two R1 prospects the Bolt braintrust selected to upgrade their front; the second, Luis Castillo is starting at LDE.� Castillo has generated some pressure but outside of Bryant Young that is not a feature among 3-4 DE.� Still, he is part of a competent 3-man DE rotation, to include former UDFA Jacques Cesaire (RDE) and 2004 R2 Igor Olshansky.� Castillo has enough quickness to challenge Max Starks; Cesaire is frame-challenged but active; Olshansky is powerful, smart and long but stiff as a wedding dick.

 

A lot of question marks both behind and upfront; however, some things are certain.� One, NT Jamal Williams makes the Bolt run D go (3^rd last season, 18� per game behind #1 Pittsburgh; 7^th in the early going 2005).� Williams is the best all-around NT in football; capable of penetrating and capable of eating blockers too.� Williams keeps the Bolt chase ILB (Donnie Edwards and Randall Godfrey) clean.� It is likely that the PS will have to combo-block this player.�

 

Then too: ILB Donnie Edwards is the glue that holds the SD D together.� As usual, Edwards leads his team in T; beyond that, he remains the best pure cover ILB in football.� To run the ball, the PS will have to account for Williams; to throw, especially underneath, the PS will have to account for Edwards.�

 

What to expect:

 

More of the same: like the Titans and Pats, San Diego will crowd the LOS seeking to stop the run.� The Titans succeeded early but fell off from mid-Q2 onward.� The Pats had it all the way.� The answer has been given often, even if the Steelers generally have been on the wrong end.� That is: make the 3-4 OLB cover.�

 

For example: last week Antonio Gates and LT toasted NE for 9 receptions and 142 yards.� In the same game, scrub RB Patrick Pass led NE with 9 receptions.� Two weeks ago at Heinz, Pat RB Kevin Faulk burned the PS with 7 grabs while Pass, again, contributed on NE�s winning drive.� Pittsburgh, SD and NE each play 3-4; each has shown as susceptible to receiving RB or TE.� The difference is: SD and NE use those types on the O-side but the Steelers do not.�

 

3-4 or no, the PS has faced 5 and 6 at the LOS with 8 to 9 in the box.� Generally, they�ve put it on the O-line and, generally, that unit has delivered.� However, that was not so against NE and, on form, will not be so against San Diego.� In that case, the PSO will have to find daylight.� Doable? Well, Week 1, Willie Parker�s 48-yard catch/run was the big play on the Steelers� opening drive, which answered Tennessee�s opening and only score.�

 

That�s been it for Willie air-wise, and about it for all other Steeler TE and RB too.� Since then, that seldom-seen corps has provided just 74 reception yards.�� Pull out a 27-yarder by Jerame Tuman in H1 v. Tennessee, and that number trends towards the invisible.� Short form: all eight Steeler RB and TE have 122 yards receiving in three games.� Of those, 75 came on 2 plays in H1 v. Tennessee.�

 

To win the game, the PSO will have to win TOP because, as we�ll see, it�s highly unlikely that the PSD will control the Bolt attack.� By ground or by air, clock control will be key, so:

 

Keys:

 

�         Run left:� Make Steve Foley play the run; it�s worth noting that RDE Cesaire is somewhat less stout at the POA than LDE Castillo.

 

�         Challenge the middle seam:� FS Jue has good ball skills but bad speed.� SS Kiel has good speed but wants to play going forward.� The Bolt S can be had; once his help is scrapped, Jammer can be had too.�

 

�         Locate Donnie Edwards:� Most often, the SS is the first key but v. San Diego, Edwards is the prime factor.� Initially, the 3-4 was designed to counter those underneath crossing routes favored by the West Coast O.� You wouldn�t know that from watching the PS ILB but Edwards, and to a lesser extent his running mate Randall Godfrey, does play that game effectively.��

 

�         Spread �em and run:� The flip side of the discussion above, make the Bolt OLB cover; the Steelers� chances of establishing the run go way up should Jamal Williams sit down.�� When Williams is in, expect to see him engage both Faneca and Hartings on run downs, leaving Simmons free to flail as the Bolt ILB fly by.�� On pass downs, Williams will turn his attention to Simmons; that mismatch is the best possible argument for mixing pass in run situations, and for running out of pass sets.�

 

On the other side of the ball:

 

Over three games, the PSD has done many things well.� With (8) takeways, they are on pace for (43); two of the past four SB champs came through the regular season with (42).� Continuing at their current sack rate, 4.67 per game, they would shatter the franchise mark, 55, erected by the Blitzburgh 11.� Of course, to do so, they�d have to play Houston 4 times more, and that�s not going to happen.� On the downside, 3^rd down, where the Steelers are #30 in stops; as noted below, they�ve been bad both short and long.���

 

PSD 3^rd down stops, or not:�

 

 

	3rd and 1 -3	3rd and 4-5	3rd and 6 to 9	3rd and 10 or beyond	Remarks
Stops/tries	1/12	5/6	4/10	10/11
Stop rate	8.3%	83%	40%	91%
Acceptable stop rate	20%	NA	67%	90%

 

Of note:

 

• The Steelers have been bad on third and short.� However, it�s worth noting that opponents have passed 7 times, scrambled once while using a RB just 4/12. Whatever problems the PS have at this down and distance have little to do with run D.�

 

• �Steelers have been bad 6 to 9 but excellent 4-5.� Put together, 9/16 stops, probably 2 short of good.

 

• Unlike 2002, when they were eaten alive on 3^rd and way long, the 2005 PS have been effective to date.�

 

This 3^rd down profile figures Monday, when the #30 Steeler D will face the #1 Bolt O.� Other aspects against the Pats, the last foe common to both teams:�

��

Last game, O-side results:�

 

	Steelers	Chargers	Remarks on the Bolts� performance
Points	20	34	Chargers had control of the mid-game, scoring 4 straight TD from Q2 thru Q3.
Total yards	269	431	6.7 per play
TOP	24:37	36:38	20:45 in H2
Turnovers	1	0	Both teams gave themselves a chance
Sacked	4	0	Bolts neutralized Seymour
Big plays	5: 3 run/2 pass	7: 3 run/4 pass	By definition: 10 yard run and 20 yard pass

 

Of note:

 

�         This time, big plays don�t tell the story.� Steelers allowed 2 more receptions at 19 yards each.� 7 Pat receivers had at least 1 grab of 10 yards or better.

 

The man most responsible for the Chargers� 2004 turnaround is no longer with the club.� That�s O-line guru Houston Houck, now down in Miami working his magic for the Fins.� Last season, Houck took a cast of rookies and rejects from worst to near first.� That unit returns intact and, while unprepossessing on paper, they are playing effectively.�

 

The Chargers have one O-lineman, RG Mike Goff, who could start for the Steelers.� OC Nick Hardwick, (former Purdue wrestling heavyweight) would be a nice heir for Hartings but otherwise? LT Roman Oben is a career journeyman.� LG Kris Dielman was a DT at Indiana and does bring a degree of nastiness; purportedly, he graded high against the Pats last week but still has much to prove.� RT Shane Olivea, formerly of OSU, is short and slow; despite that, and despite the absence of any adjacent tackle-eligible, Olivea has done his end.���

 

The Charger WRs are similarly non-descript.� Keenan McCardell, a Hines Ward type, would start here but the others: Eric Parker, Karim Osgood and Reche Caldwell, would struggle to break into the PS top 4.� San Diego did draft a WR, Vincent Jackson R2, but he has been down with an Achilles ailment.

 

FB Lorenzo Neal is an old school thumper and QB Drew Brees is a good leader who does manage a game effectively.� However, it is the duo of RB LaDainian Tomlinson and TE Antonio Gates that make the Chargers go.� They�re the meat; more or less, the other nine are garnish.�

 

What to expect:�

 

The tandem of Tomlinson and Gates place extreme pressure on opposing safeties.� Gates is the best seam threat in the show; his skills command the deep third but hanging back in Cover 2 opens the way for LT.� Tomlinson is the best cutback runner in football; possessing great vision, LT runs under his pads and, when he splits it, has the speed to turn 5 into 50.� LT overmatches most LB; therefore, safeties typically have had to play run first.� Similarly, the PS ILB will struggle to cover him on circles so, again, a DB will get that assignment.�

 

In that aspect, it�s strength on strength:� LT and Gates work the safeties but both Polamalu and Hope have made impact plays this season.� For the most part, Farrior and Foote have not; this suggests that the Steelers� set of choice Monday may be a 3-3-5. Then too, if the LT/Gates v. Polamalu/ Hope match is strength on strength, outside the opposite is so.� Past McCardell, the Bolt WRs are not so such much but, on the flip side, the PS CBs have made little impact to date.� Not that they�ve had a chance: the Steelers� bend don�t break doctrine tends to place their CB in contain.� However, with the S occupied otherwise, this week, the PS CBs are going to have to play, and play on an island.

 

Keys:�

 

�         Honor thy assignments:� The Bolts run a misdirection offense.� WR reverses open the inside for LT; play action to LT singles up Gates.� Job #1 is to limit Tomlinson�s big plays; nearly without exception those have come against the grain.� Facing LT, over-pursuit is death.���

 

�         Contest the receivers� release:� The Bolt pass O is all about timing.� Brees does not have a big arm and that O-line can�t hold up on sheer talent.� Generally, the ball comes out on time, to a spot.� The PS CBs, especially Taylor, are far better on than off.� Past McCardell, San Diego doesn�t have a WR that will embarrass any DB.� This week: let the young CB do what they do best: run (and cover) rather than read.�

 

�         �No lay-ups:� Borrowing from roundball parlance, when former power forward Antonio Gates comes in the lane, make him pay.�

 

Conclusion:

 

In their two wins, against Tennessee and Houston (combined record 1-6), the Steelers have gotten out early, then put the O in grind while the D-side padded their sack stats.� In their two wins against the NJG and Pats (combined record 5-2), the Bolts have been even early but then pulled away.� The cumulative numbers: first half: 38-37 Bolts, second half: 48-3 Bolts.� For San Diego, the key has been TOP, especially second half TOP.� Against the NJG, they had it 17:15 of H2; against NE, 20:45.�

 

The Chargers have shown some fortitude.� Twice, with a game (in fact, their season) on the line, San Diego closed strong.� To date, the Steelers have closed either in neutral or in disarray.� That won�t get it Monday.� If form holds, both teams will score big in H1; the team that wins will do it again in H2.� This 2005 Steeler edition is no juggernaut; to win, they have to play near flawless ball on both sides: limit penalties, limit turnovers, get the ball.� In sunny SoCal, one more: win on 3^rd down, again, on both sides.���

 

Back of the book:

 

Following an article posted here in August, The Run Game, then and now, this, to be updated as the season progresses:

 

2005 PS run/pass ratio, by half and tally:

 

	First Half			Second Half			Final
	Run	Pass	Scoring	Run	Pass	Scoring	Run	Pass	Score
v. Titans	16	9	20-7	25	2	14-0	41	11	34-7
@ Texans	15	16	20-0	17	6	� 7-7	32	22	27-7
v. Patriots	11	12	10-7	10	21	10-16	21	33	20-23

 

Note:

 

�         Kneeldowns, considered non-plays here, are deleted from run totals.

�         Pass attempts include both sacks and scrambles.�