Steelers at Jaguars Wrap-Up, Cinci Preview

Steelers at Jaguars Wrap-Up, Cinci Preview        By CK Stiller

Why wasn�t Hines Ward smiling last night? Well, obviously the team (or offense, really), played like shit. Specifically Roethlisberger. I see a lot of people talking up Jacksonville, especially a lot of Steelers fans. I did not think they were a great team before the game, and I still don�t. Jacksonville came out and played exactly how I thought they would. They hit hard, to the point of being over-aggressive at times. The Steelers offense simply shriveled up and died under the pressure.

First, the run game.  It amazes me how many Steelers fans, and pundits seem to really think it carries this offense.  It�s complete bull.  This run game is not dominant, and has not carried the team since 2004.  No, it has been the Steelers passing attack which has won this team its fifth Super Bowl.  The Steelers run game will most likely produce high volume stats this season, but it will not be dominant, or an elite run game. It may be top 10 in the league�maybe.  It�s good to the point where the Steelers can have balance in their plays, and it will be effective still in shortening games, with or without Jerome Bettis. I said the run game was capable of chugging out positive yardage last night consistently, and it was. Jacksonville rarely played the game with anymore then 7 men in the box. If the passing game had clicked, I�m fairly confident the run game would have been somewhat respectable.  I was generally happy with the left side of the line, but anytime the team ran to the right, it was simply shut down.  Simmons and Starks could not get the job done.

Runs left: 7-17

Runs Right: 6-9

Neither is really pretty, but clearly the left side was far more effective. Stick to the left - it really is the strength of the line, Whiz.  The reason was clear. Simmons could not handle his man one-on-one.  He required help all day, and there were always Jacksonville defenders free to make the play because of it.  To the left side, the Steelers were able to get enough push to where they could gain positive yardage and keep Jacksonville�s LB�s off Parker longer.  The Steelers weren�t going to have a great night running the ball, but they could have been effective enough to make Jacksonville respect it.  Remember my pretty little chart from week 1?  That was the reality of the Steelers run game, and this game showed me that it won�t change.

Beyond too many runs to the right, the Steelers never mixed things up.  Whisenhunt called a terrible game. Runs and passes both came in bunches.  There was never real balance. On one series, the Steelers would run on first and second down, then drop back into the shotgun.  Another, they would throw-throw-throw. The Steelers didn�t seem to have much direction on offense.  Whisenhunt made no attempt to change things up until late in the fourth quarter, when he finally brought out the no-huddle (where the Steelers had their most success last season).  There were no reverses, counters, or draws to take advantage of a Jacksonville defense that was flying around the field.  The Steelers repeatedly dumped the ball off to Willie Parker and Verron Haynes, in spite of the fact that there was little success in doing so, and it usually resulted in either of them getting lit up by the Jacksonville LB�s.

In pass protection, the Steelers were generally able to man-up against Jacksonville�s DL. Unfortunately, either to compensate for their banged up front, or to get pressure on a rusty/sick Roethlisberger, the Jaguars blitzed far more frequently then they normally do, as I feared they would last week. Jacksonville was aggressive last night, and attacked the Steelers.  There were too many times when defenders walked straight into the backfield untouched.  Roethlisberger could never determine who was coming, and neither could the line.  Quick reads need to be made here, and the Steelers were unable to.

Roethlisberger was generally awful.  The Steelers could have moved the ball with success on this defense.  Of that I have no doubt.  The problem wasn�t a lack of open targets, but rather a hesitant Roethlisberger who was overthrowing his receivers. Roethlisberger looked like Shane Boyd last night, as he forgot what the words �touch� and �accuracy� mean.  He rocketed every pass in there, and a number of times he hung out his receivers to dry. Hines Ward and Nate Washington both took nasty shots due to Roethlisberger throwing terrible passes. He had a few strikes which were dropped, though, as well.  Cedric Wilson played like Brandon Lloyd.  He had passes taken right out of his hands, or dropped them on contact.  Nate Washington clearly outplayed him, and answered any questions people may have had about his �toughness.�  Much has already been said about Santonio Holmes, who has looked generally lost.  His most impressive play to this point has been a nice hit he threw on punt return to prevent the ball from being downed at the goalline�Clearly not what you want to see from your number one draft pick at WR.

Where the hell is Willie Reid?  Holmes and Colclough scare me back there, and I know I�m not alone.  They make the simple act of catching the ball and calling for a fair catch look difficult.  The Steelers really could use some changes on ST�s before next week�it was a key factor in the Steelers 38-31 loss to the Bengals last season, and the way they�ve played these first two weeks, I see it as nothing but a liability.  Please, bring back Chidi and activate Willie Reid.

The Steelers defense played a good game.  The LB�s and DL were both impressive for most of the night, especially the much maligned Larry Foote, who had the best game of any defender last night.  Farrior is far better at taking on blocks then Foote, but Foote has been very aggressive as of late (dating back to the Steelers miraculous playoff run of last year), and is coming on as a reliable player.  The Steelers could still use a stronger ILB to compliment either Farrior or Foote, but there may not be much of a difference between those two anymore.  The Jaguars covered up for their sorry OL by throwing short most of the night.  They had a very simple gameplan. Keep it short to neutralize the pass rush, and get the ball into the hands of their giants on the outside.  Force the Steelers secondary to come up and make the tackles.  Ike Taylor did a better job of tackling then last week, but unfortunately he was alone.  Every other member missed at least one tackle, with Townsend being the most abused in this regard.  When Jacksonville did air the ball out more vertically, they seemed to target McFadden early, and I have more respect for the decision of playing Townsend ahead of him now.  The Steelers never gave up any deep strikes, and the broken play by Williams was the biggest mistake of the night.

The Steelers had trouble containing Fred Taylor in that second half. In my preview last week, I wrote:  �Fred Taylor can make something out of nothing, but there�s no way he will do so consistently.�

Well, I was wrong.  The Steelers seemed worn down in the second half to an extent, and suddenly Taylor began cutting back on them.  This guy is as good as any back in the league when healthy.  The Jaguar�s line is weak, but he dominated in that second half. Just look at the numbers:

First Half: 8-16, 2 YPC

Second Half: 14-76, 5.4 YPC

It was the most impressive performance from a back against the Steelers in a long while. James or Rudi Johnson may have finished with similar numbers, but neither did as much with as little as Taylor. He did it all with little help from his line or passing attack.

The Steelers defense gets an A out of me.

This is a team the Steelers should have routed.  The plays where there to be made for the Steelers, and they were simply unable to do so, and it was mostly because the Steelers were misfiring. Roethlisberger has never had a game that bad in his career, and that includes the Super Bowl.  If Cedric Wilson makes the catch on the first series to convert a key third down, the Steelers most likely walk away with either 3 or 7 points.  If Roethlisberger doesn�t overthrow Hines Ward deep on the second series, you are looking at 7.  If, if, if�The reality is the Steelers were outplayed, but it wasn�t because they were playing a team as talented.  If the Steelers meat up with these guys again, they will get revenge for the past two meetings.  I fully expect the Steelers do dominate the next meeting with a healthy Roethlisberger, and just maybe it will come in this years playoffs.

Jacksonville may have a real shot at winning their division, but that�s not because they are so good.  Their win last night came against the toughest team on their schedule. Indy�s run game has struggled thus far against a weak Houston team, and the Giants. While Manning threw well last week, the Jacksonville corners are extremely physical, and playing at a higher level then last year.  The Colts are not as good as last year.

The most impressive aspect of Jacksonville�s win last night may have been the atmosphere. The Steelers fans did not take over that stadium as they did in 2004. It seemed loud all night long, and the Jaguars seemed to feed off it.

Will the real Ben Roethlisberger show up next week (this is the key of the game)? If so, then he�ll shred this secondary. It�s full of the same bums as last year, and without Jackson, they will be even more vulnerable. In the Wild Card game last year, the Steelers mixed things up nicely in the passing game. They added in some fakes into their routes, and Roethlisberger used the pump fake on multiple occasions. He looked off defenders frequently. He�ll need to do this all again. The Bengals secondary is the same as always. They�ll give up big plays and lots of yards, but they are ball hawks. They make their living jumping routes, and the Steelers did a nice job of taking advantage of this in last years playoffs. No reason not to do it again.

If I had to bet on two guys to have big days, it would be Cedric Wilson and Heath Miller. Cinci struggles badly covering TE�s. They were 27^th in the leauge last year against them, and have allowed Winslow and Gonzalez to catch 14 passes so far this year. With Pollack, Thomas, and Jackson out, Miller should have a field day underneath. Last year, the Bengals were willing to concede a lot of the underneath stuff to cover up for their horrible safeties.  Miller should eat them alive.  By the second quarter and second half of the last two meetings, the Bengals decided it was wiser to drop everyone back into coverage rather then play the run.

Question: Where do the Bengals get their pass rush from? Well, no one. Marvel Smith did not play in that December game against Cinci last year, but it wasn�t until the final series of the game that the Steelers finally allowed a sack.  The Jaguars will be able to supply no pressure from their front 4.  They haven�t blitzed much in the past meetings. I could possibly see that changing after what Jacksonville did last week.

Cinci, coming into this game without Dexter Jackson and two starting LB�s may decide it�s a better decision to blitz Roethlisberger. Test him, and the offensive line, which struggled to pick up the blitz last week. The Dolphins sat back against Batch, calling only a handful of blitzes all game.  Whiz had better be prepared for this, and realize that he has a stud TE who is great at finding the holes in the opposing defense and sitting down in them. Last week, the only answer the Steelers seemed to have was the dump off to Parker/Haynes in the flat.  Didn�t work last week, but should be more effective against a less aggressive, and banged up Bengals LB�ing core.

Holmes (please get this guy involved), Washington, and Wilson can all stretch a defense vertically.  Wilson is quick, and has been able to get behind defenses the past two weeks.  Miller could also be added to that mix.  The Steelers should have an answer for anything the Bengals throw at them.  Man-for-man, there isn�t a match-up against this defense that doesn�t favor the Steelers.

The Bengals can stop the Steelers run game, if they sell out and bring a safety down. They did this in the past three games against the Steelers, and it ended up hurting them badly as Roethlisberger picked them apart. The Steelers have not had success running early on the Bengals early in the past two meetings. It�ll be interesting to see what they do.  Either way, the Steelers will run the ball with success at some point. It�s a matter of the Bengals picking their poison this week. They just aren�t good enough to match-up defensively. Sam Adams will give Simmons trouble.  He will not be able to drive him out of the hole, and it would be smarter to run left�Like always.

Here, it all starts with the Bengals offensive line. It has had the Steelers number. If any team in the league has had an answer for what LeBeau can throw at it, it�s this one. The Steelers have been better off sitting back in coverage against the Bengals than attacking them.  At the same time, the Bengals line is a bit banged up. Levi Jones will most likely play, but won�t be at 100%. Braham, one of the few centers to have success blocking Hampton, is out. In week 1, James Farrior was able to create the most consistent pressure of any Steelers defender with the Dolphins� McKinney out. Foote looked good blitzing, and created pressure against the Jaguars last week.  The Steelers best chance of getting to Palmer may be through the middle this Sunday.

Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh are also banged up for this week, though it looks like both will play.  Anyone who saw Johnson after the hit last week could tell he was loopy.  His shoulder has reportedly been bothering him all week. Johnson�s three showdowns with Ike Taylor thus far:

Game 1: 4 catches, 94 yards, 0 TD�s

Game 2: 5 catches, 54 yards, 0 TD�s

Game 3: 4 catches, 59 yards, 0 TD�s

Average: 4.3 catches, 69 yards, 0 TD�s

Carson Palmer, too, has generally struggled against the Steelers. Even in last years win, he completed just 57% of his passes, and of the Bengals scoring drives, only 2 were not started beyond their own 47 yard line (the TD bomb Colclough let go through his hands, and a FG drive).  They had 7 points off special teams directly, and were set up with nice kick returns throughout the day. Tab Perry, the Bengals KR, will also miss Sunday�s game.  Right now, converted WR (and rookie) Reggie McNeal may be filling in for him. Considering how awful the Steelers special teams has looked so far, the Steelers may be very fortunate�Assuming that McNeal struggles with the job the way Steelers rookie Santonio Holmes has.

T.J. Houshmandzadeh of shoe-shining fame has had a bit more success against the Steelers then Chad Johnson.  Specifically, he burned the Steelers in the 38-31 disappointment. Watching some of this game, many of these big plays came as he was matched up on LB�s, as opposed to DB�s.  This goes back to what I said earlier, about the Steelers having their most success against Palmer out of the base 3-4.

Chris Henry could cause problems. This receiving core is the best in the league, top to bottom. Henry may have more athletic tools than even Johnson. He very quietly had one of the top seasons of last years rookie WR�s, and had 5 of his 31 catches in the December game.  He was able to beat Townsend deep in the Wildcard game, albeit on a playaction pass.  His athleticism causes problems for the Steelers secondary. Besides Taylor, I think he may be able to get the better of any Steelers corner.

Johnson and Henry are both dangerous vertical threats. Houshmanzadeh is a very good, and reliable possession receiver who may has some of the best hands in the league. The Bengals have had their most success throwing early on the Steelers, until LeBeau throws out his nickel.  I�ve noticed the Steelers using it a bit more frequently since the playoffs last year, with either Haggans or Porter acting almost like 4-3 DE�s. I would expect to see a lot of this come Sunday.  The Bengals simply have too much firepower.

Rudi Johnson has had success running on the Steelers. He will most likely have a solid day on the stat sheet again. In last years playoff game, the Bengals abandoned their run too early, and allowed the Steelers to keep 6 DB�s on the field with Kitna at QB. In the first meeting last year, they fell behind due to Palmer INT�s in the third quarter.  For the first two games this season, they�ve been giving their opponents a healthier dose of Johnson, and they would be smart to commit to the run to keep the Steelers in check. If they do so, this could be a very long day for the defense.  If not, I expect the Bengals attack to die by the second half. It�s all on the Bengals. However, the balanced approach is almost impossible to stop.  If the Steelers keep 4 LB�s on the field, along with Hampton, the Bengals will be able to get mismatches with their WR�s. If the Steelers change to the nickel, then the Bengals could pound the ball.  With their starting center out, and Jones being banged up, it seems more likely the Bungals will remain the Bungals and give up on the run too soon.

If they don�t, Johnson could wreak havoc. The Steelers corners have had some tackling problems so far, as you all know. Polamalu�s shoulder is hurt, and Clark just sucks. Rudi Johnson is a powerful runner, and on more then one occasion Steelers DB�s and even LB�s have bounced off him. The national media doesn�t acknowledge how much this run game contributes to Palmer and his pretty stats, but I would hope all Steelers fans do.

Prediction: Last year, the Bengals hung 38 on the Steelers at Heinz Field. The Bengals had some lucky breaks that allowed them to do so. Field position was key. With Perry out, a banged up line, and a coaching staff that is too pass happy, the Steelers defense should not repeat that performance.  The Bengals may look great early, marching up and down the field as they have in the past, but it won�t last if they continue to play the Steelers as they have.  Johnson is the key to keeping this offense success for a full 60 minutes, and I don�t think they�ll give him the carries.  The Bengals defense is still soft, on top of being injured. The game will hinge on the health of Roethlisberger at the end of the day. If he can hurt this Bengals defense early, the run will work, and he will be able to manage the game from that point. If he struggles like last week, the Steelers will lose. This game should not end in a shoot-out like last year. Roethlisberger shouldn�t have to throw much in the second half, as the run game turns on and the Bengals go into panic mode. The Steelers should win, although it is hardly guaranteed. Scenarios that I could see?

-Roethlisberger is back, throws early with success and Steelers get the run game going in the second half.  Run all over the Bengals. Bengals abandon their own run, and the Steelers begin to separate as Palmer begins to make mistakes.

-Roethlisberger is back.  Bengals keep balance, and the Steelers end up in a shoot-out. Not as many turnovers or big special teams plays, and I would still pick the Steelers here.

-Roethlisberger is not back.  Bengals stack the box against the run, and the Steelers struggle and lose.

I�m going with the first one here, because I can�t even begin to imagine what this season will be like if Roethlisberger doesn�t recover, and I think the Bengals coaching staff gets off watching Carson Palmer throw.