Carolina @ Pittsburgh
Pre-game:
This is a must-win for Pittsburgh, a team that is just one Brownie helmet toss from 2nd in the weakling AFC North.� Carolina will be watching the playoffs but for now does have the opportunity to play the role of spoiler with respect to the Steelers� championship shot.
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Like Pittsburgh, Carolina is undefeated in the AFC North and, like Pittsburgh, the Panthers have faired poorly elsewhere.� These are two flawed teams but, with few exceptions, that can be said of any playing on Sunday.� I think that, finally, this game will be decided as a matter of will and resilience; in that respect, the Steelers should be favored.� For the B&G, this game ought be viewed as the first in six on the road to redemption; for the Panthers, well, if they don�t win Sunday, they still will have an opportunity at 4 of their final 5.� Couple that diminished reward factor with the toll taken on the Panther roster by injury, criminality and substance abuse and you�ve got to expect a serious beat-down this weekend.
Of course, that beating could go either way; leaving the question of turnovers for a moment, the deciding factor will be attitude, that of the players here and, more to the point, their coaching leadership.� So far this season, we�ve seen two kinds of games, neither good.� The first occurs when the offense turns it over repetitively, lacking any compensating takeaways, these are bad losses.� The second occurs when the offense goes out and blows their opposition away; subsequently though, after the staff has turtled on both sides of the ball, we�ve had what may be described as bad wins (or a bad tie).� The overarching result has been poor; the offense has no established identity and the defense, rather than dictating the terms of engagement, has accepted match-ups that point up their deficiencies.� That�s got to end; this Sunday, the Steelers must come out fast and keep the pedal down, on both sides of the ball, all day long.� If that happens, they�ll begin to develop an impetus to carry through the playoffs, if not, well, I�d just as soon skip whatever 1st round pounding follows.�
Carolina blew up for (52) against the Bengals last week; they had scored (56) or so in their previous (5) games.� They went for (7) TD last week, (3) on returns and (4) on offense; they had scored (7) TD in their previous (8) games.� As usual, their offense was stuffed in the 1st half; however, they went for about 280 TY and all (31) points in the 2nd half.� Despite that, the Panthers don�t figure to move it Sunday; consider:
- It is highly likely that they�ll be playing their #3 and #4 OT.� ROT Chris Terry is gone; LOT Todd Steussie is questionable.� That leaves perennial scrubs Melvin Tuten and Tim Stuber.
- Their interior O-line is decent but by no means great.� Last year, OC Jeff Mitchell was in Charm City; at playoff time then, it was said that the Ravens had resurrected their ground game with Terry Allen running behind Mitchell and the rest; however, Hampton tooled Mitchell then and the Ravens flopped to earth.� There is no reason to believe that won�t happen again; RG Kevin Donnalley is a solid short-area brawler but even in his prime, was never better than 3rd in the Titans OL stable.� LG Jamar Nesbit was a rookie FA.
- RB Dee Brown figured to be #3 this year until DeShaun Foster sat down for the season and Lamar Smith guzzled his way out of the league.� In his first start, Brown had +100 against the Browns but the Bengals stuffed him last week.� Rod Smart, better known as He-Hate-Me, backs Brown.
- FB Brad Hoover and Nick Goings function as check-down receivers; they have about (30) catches between them.� They may move the chains a couple times but don�t figure to influence the outcome.
- TE Wesley Walls is done; the Panthers do have (2) good receivers, a big one in Muhsin Mohammad �(46 catches @ 14.5) and a small, quick guy in Steve Smith (42 catches @ 16.2).� Smith will be a problem, as was Deion Branch and David Patten among others but, considering that the Panthers have no depth at the position, there will be no (5) wide.� That so, there should be no dime; that so, the Panthers won�t put much together.
- Rodney Peete is their QB; Peete is 5-6 as a starter but hardly could be described as an elite QB.� He is a good leader and, like Gannon, he is a decent athlete for an old guy.
Key:� The Steelers don�t match up well with the Panther WR but, then again, the Panther O-line doesn�t match up with the Steeler pass rushers.� Obviously, if Peete is on his back, the WR won�t get many balls.� The Steelers should bring it early, and bring it all day.� I�d leave Hampton in for some passing situations.� Casey has been getting a push, he opens things up for Bell and, one thing we don�t want to see, is Bailey getting pushed wide and Peete scooting up the middle.
Smith is the guy most likely to do damage; Townsend gives the Steelers their best match-up against this man�s quickness.� This suggests that DT starts and Flowers, or Alex, sits.� When Smith is at flanker, Townsend should be on him; when Smith is on the line, the Steelers should assign someone else, presumably one of the safeties, to jam him, and jam him hard.� �
Generally, the Steelers play Cover 3 with both CB back along with Alex.� This hasn�t been a resounding success; I wonder whether a Cover 2, inverting their CB and safeties is in order.� This would put their fastest DB in the area where maximum range is required; it would put their more physical DB underneath, with the coverage LB.� I�d like to see the safeties jam and the LB beat down any receiver coming underneath but probably, this won�t be happening.
The Panther defense is Front 4 dominant; however, their best player, Julius Peppers, is done for the year.� Further:
- RDE Mike Rucker and DT Kris Jenkins both have (7) sacks and (13.5) TFL.� However, both got those stats early; it is possible that they are wearing down.� DT Brentson Buckner is not; Buck just got back from a 4-game rip, he�s fresh and he will be motivated.� Al Wallace replaced Peppers at LDE; Wallace is just a guy.�
- Strong-side LB Mark Fields is a player with impact stats similar to Porter�s; he�s stout enough at the POA but makes his big plays in a chase position.� Rookie and former Bulldog Will Witherspoon has replaced oft-injured Dan Morgan at MLB; Witherspoon is swift but not stout.� Former Ram 3rd rounder Brian Allen replaced Hannibal Navies on the weakside; like Spoon, he�s swift but not stout.�
- The Panthers have (2) former 2nd round picks at safety; they are Mike Minter and Deon Grant.� Grant has size and some coverage skills but reputedly, will turn down tackles.� Minter is a hard-nose but, at 188#, could be wearing down too.� The Panther CB, Terry Cousin and Reggie Howard, are both former rookie FA.� You may remember that the Steelers were looking at Cousin as a nickel replacement for Townsend; he filled that role well in �01 with the Fins but, at 5�-9�, really doesn�t figure to match with the Steeler WR.� Howard had a couple big hits last week but still, is far from elite.� The Panthers nickel, with Dante Wesley subbing for Allen, is, at this point superior to their base.
Keys:� The Panther Front 7 will start (3) scrubs this Sunday; of those, only Witherspoon has shown much.� However, they are stout at DT and, much as was true last year against the Ravens� Goose and Adams, Zereoue figures to succeed where the Bus does not.� The CB can be abused; hell, Kitna had about 300 yards last week and the Bengals went for (31) or so; short of another turnover-fest, the Steelers #3 O-side should do the same.
Special teams probably favor the Panthers.� Last week, Josh punted the football as if he was punting a medicine ball.� Very poor; Steve Smith had (2) long TD on PR; however, while those covered better than 140 yards, Smith has averaged just 8.0 per return.� ��The key here is the same as when the Panthers have the ball; limit Smith and Carolina will struggle to score.
Summary:� Coach Cowher�s motivational skill will be on display this weekend.� He is deficient at Xs and Os; he is deficient in game-day adjustment; he is paid to motivate.� Well, we�ll see.� �