Stillers vs. Pats Pregame Analysis (Game
#1, @ New England)
It seems like only
yesterday that we were preparing to face the Patriots, and this site stood out
amongst the entire sports media world with a gutsy, dead-on accurate pre-game prediction
as to why the Pats would prevail over the favored Stillers.�� (See http://www.stillers.com/article_show.asp?ID=675� for that story.)� Now, here we are, some 8 months later, getting ready to play
these same Patriots.� The draft,
training camp, preseason -- it's all over with now, and it's time to get ready
for some Stiller football.�
* When the Pats
have the ball, they�ll bring an offense that is just capable enough to move
the ball adequately; chew some clock; and help win the battle of field
position.� Super Bowl hero Tom Brady
must prove that last season was no fluke.�
Additionally, the Pats no longer have the luxury of a Drew Bledsoe
waiting in the wings in case of injury or ineffectiveness.� Patten and Brown give the Pats a nice
starting combo.� While neither will make
anyone forget about Jerry Rice, both are capable vets who combine good
quickness with good hands.� Stiller fans
should remember Patten, who scorched Jason Gildon and made a good attempt to
haul in the critical TD pass in the AFC Title game loss.� (Patton actually juggled the ball and had no
control, as this site showed with clear photos.)� Antwain Smith resurrected what had been a mediocre career, and he
returns to give the Pats a decent running game that is often just good enough
to keep the heat off Brady.� Smith
doesn't scare me the way a Curtis Martin does or Marcus Allen did, but he is a
big back who has adequate agility.�� The
Pats' O-line is above average, but little more.�� However, to their credit, this crew did a decent enough job in
the Title game to give their QB some time, as well as open up the occasional
hole for Smith.� I liked the Pats' TE
last year, Wiggins, but the Pats went a different direction in the
offseason.� The Pats will presumably
start free agent pickup C. Fauria at TE, but rookie 1st rounder Dan Graham
should see some work as well.� The
Stillers had loads of trouble covering TEs last season, so it will be
interesting to see if that problem has been rectified.�
The key matchup will be, just as I felt is was last
January, Brady and the Patriots passing attack, against the Stiller
defense.� Smith will plow for a few
yards here and there, but, unless Farrior fails to plug the middle, I don't expect
Smitty to get an abundance of yardage.�
On opening day under Bill Cowher, the Stillers have had a penchant for
softee vanilla that is the envy of every Dairy Queen franchise across America,
and it's likely they'll limit their blitzes and play soft on the Pats
receivers.�� If so, Brady will be able
to play pitch-and-catch with Brown and Patten, as well as the intermittent flip
to the TE or back.�� The Stillers must
abandon any vanilla stupidity, and play with aggressiveness and
initiative.�� This includes tactics like
jamming receivers near the LOS; disguising coverages to confuse Brady; and
blitz packages that bring more than 4 rushers at the QB.�
* When the Stillers have
the ball, it's
anybody's guess as to what will occur.�
Other than this site and this author, who could have predicted that
Billy Cowher would not only s tick with a fat, injured RB, but also have him
running wide?� Bettis has only looked
"ok" in preseason.� The Rotund
Running Back has displayed a girth similar to Fat Albert, while showing
quickness similar to Fred Sanford.�� Fu
and Zereoue wil hopefully see considerable work, and if so they should give the
running game a boost.� As in the past,
the Pats front seven is lukewarm on paper, but by combining quickness, guile,
and clever schemes, they have given the Stiller fits in every meeting since
1997, which includes 4 games (every one of which the Pats have outplayed the
Stillers).� Stewart and his receivers
had a fairly solid preseason, and the passing game will need to be perky if the
Stillers plan on moving the ball with consistency.� Ward was blanketed pretty well in the last meeting by the superb
Ty Law, and I suspect the Pats will go with that matchup again.� Ward simply doesn't have the speed to whip a
great CB like Law, so Burress and Randle El must step up and be the go-to
guys.�� I expect a big game from
"Prime Time Plexico", based not only on the lesser ability of CB Otis
Smith, but also because Burress had a strong preseason and he excels on prime
time TV.�� The primary concern along the
O-line is Oliver Ross, who will start at guard.� Ross, as has long been pointed out by myself -- long before any
major media source jumped on it, in fact -- is too "un-quick" and too
mobility-challenged to excel at guard in the Stiller system. ��NE would do well to exploit this at every
opportunity, thus jamming the running game.�
Rookie K. Simmons will see a few snaps at RG, and his inexperience could
be easy fodder for the Pats.�
The key matchup will be the Stiller ground game
against the Pats front 7.� All kinds of
questions overshadow this matchup.� Will
Cowher and Mularkey have this offense prepared for the inevitable run-blitzing
and gap-shooting of the Pats, or will Cowher's head-in-the-sand style of
management prevail?�� Will
Cowher/Mularkey use The Tubby Tailback running north-south between the tackles,
or will they attempt to reinvent physics -- as they did last January -- by
having the Rotund Running Back foolishly running wide and getting chopped down
as easy as cake?�� Putting Stewart into
continual 3rd-and-long situations is tenuous, and can lead to poor TOP.� Wil Bettis be slow and lethargic?�� If so, how long will Bettis be allowed to
remain in the game and hurt the eatm?�
The Stillers must integrate Amoz and Fu into the ground game, especially
if the Belly Back (Jerome Bettis) is slow and lethargic.��
* Special Teams: �"spec teams" are essentially a 4-letter word if you're a
Stillers fan, based on the gross ineptitude that pockmarked the entire
2001 season.� Troy Brown will resume his
role as punt returner, which will cause most Stiller fans to hold their breath
during each and every punt.� Rookie
Randle El might give the Stiller punt return team a much needed boost.� Besides pitiful punt coverage, the '01
Stillers had pitiful KO coverage, as well as shoddy punt and FG
protection.� Both place-kickers are
reliable, and in what should be a tight game, it may come down to a FG near the
end of regulation.�
* Coaching: Clearly, Bill Belichick tooled Billy
Cowher last January, so badly that is was literally unfair.� Belichick enabled his team to succeed, while
Cowher served as nothing more than an anchor tied to the neck of a drowning
man.� Belichick's tactical and strategic
genius looked like the second coming of George Patton, while Cowher resembled
the military bumbling of Saddam Hussein.�
As I showed in my article a few days ago (see� http://www.stillers.com/article_show.asp?ID=701
), Cowher has gone 9 (nine) straight season openers of bumbling and stumbling
(aside from the opening day laugher against junior-varsity Cleveland in
'99.)� On the other hand, Cowher has
shown a fair propensity of whipping his troops into a fiery rage for prime time
television, so that is a factor worth noting.�
This Stillers team is better on all fronts -- except special teams --
but as we saw last January, coaching can easily turn chicken salad into chicken
shit.�
* Synopsis: ABC has to be
elated to begin this season with such an outstanding matchup that includes
talent, skill, good teams, and the grudge/revenge factor.� The factor that stands out most to the
astute observer is Cowher's 9 consecutive years of slop, vanilla, timidity, and
poor preparation for the season opener.��
Cowher claims he's addressed that, but it's hard to imagine that a
mule-stubborn dullard like Bill Cowher can just wake up one day and radically
reverse 9 years of overt opening-day futility.�
Perhaps I'm still peeved about the Pitt Panther loss on Saturday, and am
anxious for any ol' win�Perhaps trusty ol' poster Steel33 has won me over with
his spirited posts on our message board�.and perhaps the jubilation of opening
day has clouded my ability to think rationally.�� At any rate, for this season opener, against my better judgment,
I'm going to discount Cowher's perennial opening day incompetence and go with a
23-17 Stiller victory.�