Smitter�s Divisional Playoffs Picks vs the spread
Last week: 2-2 Overall: 2-2 50%
FLG�s last week: 0-1 FLG�s overall: 0-1 0%
In the past five years, teams with a first-round bye are 16-4 (8-2 in each conference). Against the spread, the record is 4-6 in the AFC, and 7-3 in the NFC, for a total of 11-9, 55%, against the spread. In 2003, teams with the bye were 0-4 against the spread. Last year it was 3-1, with the lone loss being the Steelers not covering against the Jets.
Washington (+ 9 �) over Seattle � Washington will have to play better on offense then they did last week. What was it � about 150 total yards? That isn�t going to cut it in Seattle. Seattle�s offense has been playing well, but will be going against a defense that has stopped just about everyone lately. I think Brunell has a better game, and the Washington defense can keep it close.
New England (+ 3 �) over Denver � I wish the Steelers were playing first this weekend. If the Steelers win, I want to face New England. If the Steelers lose, I hope Denver wins. That being said, I don�t think Denver is going to be close in this game, home field or not. I am not sold on Jake Plummer, although he did impress at times during the season, and did get the #2 seed for the Broncos. New England appears to be peaking at just the right time. With the weather not being an advantage or disadvantage to anyone, I believe New England comes into Denver and does what it needs to win the game.
Chicago (- 3 �) over Carolina - Carolina looked impressive last week against the Giants. Jake Delhomme is playing as well as any QB left in the playoffs. But, there is just something about the Bears this year. I wasn�t a believer at all, even during their winning streak. But, I am now. The Bears� defense will give the Panthers offense fits, especially if Foster is hampered at all. Bears offense is different with Grossman at the helm, and that will be enough for the Bears to win.
Pittsburgh (+ 9 �) over Indianapolis � The whole football world already has the Colts not only winning this game, but advancing to the Super Bowl. And, they have been the best team all year. Let everyone keep overlooking the Steelers. It is Stop #2 of the 2006 Payback Tour. The Steelers lost by 19 points the last time these teams played, so how do the Steelers get back 20 points to win the game. Let�s count � First, the crowd noise won�t distract the Steelers as much as it did earlier, since we�ve also played in the dome at Minnesota, and the league�s noise edict. Not as many false starts lead to 3 more Steelers points. We need 17 more. Second, Ike is not going to get burned like he did the first play of the game. So, we assume the Colts only get a FG instead of a TD, so 4 more points. Down to 13 to go. Jeff Reed is not going to miss another 40-yard FG. 10 points to go. No onside kick to start the second half when the defense is playing decent. But, let�s assume the Colts take the kickoff and get 3, instead of the easy 7. 4 more points means we only need 6 more for victory. Lastly, Big Ben is not in his first game back from injury. The rust is off. Ben is playing well. In fact, Ben will outplay Peyton on Sunday. That leads to 2 more TD�s, and the Steelers win this game by 8 points!
My First Look Goodies (FLG) for the week are:
New England (+ 3 �) over Denver