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D-side Blues, most 'round the world

December 03, 2002 by Steel Phantom

John Clayton had a pretty good article on the short-pass-first-last-and always offense endemic in the league this year

John Clayton had a pretty good article on the pass-first-last-and always offense endemic in the league this year.You can find it at ESPN; it is titled Short-passing game giving defense problems.It is evident that the Steeler D-side is not alone in their agony.

 

Mr. Clayton�s thesis is:

 

� So many teams have incorporated parts of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers Cover 2 defensive concept that quarterbacks are spreading the field with receivers, bringing the length of a completion to the lowest level in more than two decades-11.2 yards a completion.�

 

Well, OC around the league may be attacking that system but, really, they�re not having much luck.Tampa Bay is the Jerusalem of the Cover Two and, this year, TB is #1 in total yards, YPA and PPG; they are in the top seven or so in just about every significant D-side stat.In Indianapolis, the defense re-modeled by C2 guru Tony Dungy, has risen from 28th in 2001 to 2nd this season.St. Louis, resurrected by C2 apostle Lovie Smith (formerly DC at Tampa Bay) rose from the deep 20�s in 2000 to 2nd last year and is holding (fairly) steady this year at 7th overall.You might add Carolina; up from 31st to 6th under John Fox, the Panthers are built on the Buc-model. Featuring a highly aggressive Front 4, this team gets far more plays from their safeties than from their CB.These C2 teams are #1, #2, #6 and #7 in overall defense; evidently, the Cover Two model is coping better than any other concept.

 

Perhaps, that was the point, Mr. Clayton came to praise the Cover Two and, from the record, we can see that admiration is well placed.Mr. Clayton�s 2nd point deals with run stopping:

 

�In this unconventional year, you can�t count on being able to stop the run because offenses can get around that by using short passes as their running attack.�

 

That�s true but this has been so since the West Coast attack was developed in Cin-City, down on the north bank of the Ohio.In the 70�s, the Bengals constructed this ploy because they didn�t have the talent to play straight-up, smash mouth.Later, Bill Walsh�s 49ers controlled the clock, and dominated the league, with a short pass game.Somewhere in there, the rules governing pass defense changed so that, as we saw Sunday when Jimmy Smith ran straight into Chad Scott and Scott got the foul, WR can do whatever they want while DB are at their mercy.

 

Beyond that, few if any teams are playing the run well this year, probably because they�re generally in package sets. In 2001, (14) teams held their opponents to <4.0 YPC.San Diego played the run at 3.3, the Ravens and Jags at 3.5 and the Steelers, Bears and Titans were at 3.6.This year, only (8) defenses are at 4.0 or less; this year�s leader, Dallas, is at 3.6, which, last year, would have been T-7.Yards per completion may be down but yards per carry are way up, as are yards per passing attempt.

 

The top ten teams in overall yards allowed are listed below; their ranking in other categories is shown when that is top ten.No rank is shown when a team is out of the top ten in a given stat.Correlation is 10 to 10, displayed table-wise:

 

Overall defense

PPG

Rush totals

YPC

Pass totals

 

YPA

3rd down %

Takeaways

Bucs

1

6

7

1

1

5

2

Colts

3

 

 

2

2

7

T-10

Eagles

2

3

T-10

10

6

4

T-5

Broncos

 

1

3

 

5

 

 

Fins

8

5

4

 

 

6

 

Panthers

7

9

6

4

10

2

 

Rams

10

8

T-10

 

 

3

 

NYG

6

 

 

3

3

 

 

Cowboys

5

10

1

 

7

8

 

Texans

 

 

 

5

 

9

 

Correlation

8/10

 

7/10

7/10

6/10

7/10

8/10

3/10

Steelers, 16

T-19

2

T-8

26

11

30

3

 

Pressure matters; in the table above, (3) teams are listed in every category.They are: TB, Carolina and Philadelphia.The Eagles are 1st in the sack list; the Bucs and Panthers are T-3.Atlanta, the team that is 2nd, ranks high nowhere else except takeaways and, the bottom line, scoring defense.We wouldn�t expect takeaways to factor with respect to total yards but, amazingly, takeaways don�t factor much in PPG either.However, they do count in W/L; every team in the top (9) in this category has a winning record.Returning to the text:

 

Contrary to Mr. Clayton�s assertion, run stopping remains as meaningful as defending the pass.�� The closer correlations are on 3rd down and PPG and, obviously, the last is the main strain.

 

8 of the top ten in YPG are tops in PPG too; Denver and the Texans are not.8 of the top ten in YPG are tops on 3rd down; only Denver and the NYG are not.Denver, anomalous in both instances, has about the same problems on 3rd down as the Steelers; Denver is 26th on 3rd and 18th in PPG; the Steelers are 30th and T-19 respectively.Oddly, though a 4-3 team, Denver fields a Front 7 built in the image of the 3-4 Steelers, circa 2001.Consider:

 

  • Both have (3) 300# D-linemen in their base.

 

  • Both rely on (3) LB to make plays in space; this suggests an equivalency between Gildon and Kavika Pittman.

 

  • Neither team has a rush end in the Rice, Peppers, Strahan or Kearney mold.

 

While their Front 7 personnel are similar, there are differences in the secondary: Denver plays a nickel pack while the Steelers go dime, Denver has an elite CB (O�Neal) and the Steelers do not, Denver has some speed at safety but the Steelers do not.Maybe, that is why Denver is better with respect to YPA; regardless, the Raiders tooled both teams; whatever scheme Oakland whipped up for the Steelers at Heinz worked exactly as well in Denver.

 

As mentioned, Pittsburgh is 30th in 3rd down conversions allowed; Denver is 26th.�� Mr. Clayton points out that (7) teams contending for AFC playoff spots are in the bottom (8) in this category.Maybe, that�s because these teams have to deal with the Raiders� and Pats� dink, the Raiders and Pats O-sides are #3 and #4 respectively in 3rd down conversions.Then again, maybe those defenses just aren�t very good.

 

Be that as it might, in the next (3) weeks, the Steelers will face (3) teams who are in the top 10 in stopping 3rd downs: Houston is 9th at 35.4%, Carolina 2nd at 31.7% and TB 5th at 33.0%.It�s worth noting that C2 converts St. Louis and Indy are 3rd and 7th respectively.On that note, says Monte Kiffin, current D-architect in Tampa:

 

� We don�t just play Cover 2�this is a complicated defense�we�ll have 10 coverages within a game.�

 

Ronde Barber says:

 

� Sure, our base is Cover 2, but on third downs we could switch into a number of different things.We do man-to-man.We�ll go three deep with five under.We�ll zone dog.If you look at our success on third downs, you realize that technique wins.�

 

Could be but it helps if you have Sapp and Rice rushing the passer; I�ve seen the Bucs rush just three and get pressure.We all know Simeon Rice takes a wide split on nearly every down; sometimes on 3rd and long, the Bucs split Sapp as wide to the side opposite and play McFarland straight up on the nose.There�s your rush-3, 5-under and 3 deep.

 

What you don�t see much in Tampa Bay, Carolina, Philadelphia, St. Louis or Green Bay is those teams dropping their best pass rushers into coverage.They are the top 5 teams in conversions allowed; there may be a correlation.Mr. Clayton certainly must think so:

 

�The key to stopping the short-passing offense is applying pressure on the quarterback and pressuring receivers at the line of scrimmage.�

 

Well sure, the key to stopping any passing attack is pressure.The key to stopping the short-pass has to be in hassling WR at the line since, otherwise, the ball will be away before any pressure could possibly arrive.Variants of the Cover 2 allow this; in theory, the Steelers� preferred Cover 3 could too though I�ve yet to see this Steeler team get in any kind of press underneath.Come playoff time they�d better; otherwise, they�ll bleed out slow just as they did in the early going.

 

 

 

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