The Prophecy (Game #13)

The Steelers are outclassed on paper by this New England team. I have never felt that way before about the Patsies. Their one advantage was always Brady and Belichick. The Steelers defense is superior to this Pats defense by a large margin. The Pats offense makes that of the Steelers look like a JV squad.

I have never been more �up� for a regular season game in my life. It�s been a while since I�ve thought this team was so out-matched.

The start of this game is going to be a chess match. Belichick could play the run or the pass. Seeing his run defense shredded last week, he just may think the Steelers smell blood and are going to �do what they do.� I come out passing out of power formations and with the play-action.

The Patriots will push the pocket on the Steelers with their front 3, as I�ve already said. What the Steelers can�t have is unblocked blitzers taking free shots at Ben. The ability to pick up the blitz and get a man on a man will be a key to this game. Third down is going to be significant. That is when the Patriots have traditionally gotten creative.

I believe the Patriots are going to play the Steelers with a lot of tight zones. They will play within 5 yards of the line. They will roll their coverage outside to double Ward and Holmes on passing downs. They�ll want to keep their safety on Holmes more. There will be gaping holes in the middle of this defense, and that is what the Steelers have to exploit. It�s what they failed to do against the Jets. I�ve talked about it all week. Work the area of the field behind these LB�s and ahead of the safeties. It�s probably going to be there all day on this team.

How the Steelers play the Pats will be interesting. The past two weeks we�ve seen more short passing and three wides. It was a much needed change and took strain off the OL. If the Steelers try to run the ball from bunch formations and two TE sets, I fear they will fail. And that failure will lead to third and longs. Third and longs are what Belichick has wet dreams about.

The Steelers are not a run first team. Everyone hasn�t caught on to this. That may include the Steelers themselves. They need the pass to open up the run. They need the pass to be clicking for this offense to have any chance to be successful. They don�t have a great pass blocking OL, as we all know. The interior is especially weak. High percentage passes are the way to go for the Steelers. You can control the clock with a passing game as well as you can with the run. The Steelers need to remember this.

If the Steelers are willing to abandon the run, 5 step drops and the shotgun are the way to go. What the Pats lack are explosive edge rushers. There is no need for especially quick drops against them. Moving the pocket will also be useful against this defense. Anything that gets their safeties flowing in the wrong direction could be fatal for them. It�s going to be hard to throw over top this defense any other way. Roll out on play-action. One play to keep in mind. They used it against Arizona. Roethlisberger rolls right off play-action, and throws across his body to hit Washington deep. It�s a tough play. It�s a great design that is perfect to exploit this Pats defense. It gives the receiver a better chance to run off the CB while it freezes the safety long enough to keep them from providing the inside help.

The Steelers need to test this defense deep to keep the safeties back. Teams like to play their safeties 10 yards off the ball on the Steelers. Make them pay for that. The Steelers need to be bold in their approach. The play outlined above is an example.

This defense is old, and as Belichick has stated - tired. The tempo of this offense is very important. The Steelers have versatile personnel with their three wide, 1 TE set. They can run and pass out of that. The no-huddle should be mixed into the offense frequently.

I�m not expecting heavy pressure from the Pats. They will throw some nice blitzes at the Steelers throughout the game, but most of their rushes should consist of 4 and occasionally 5 men. They have no need to bring more. When they blitz, I�m expecting most of it to come from outside, especially off RT.

The final note is exploit the LB�s. Miller, Parker and Spaeth are weapons. Parker does not need to vanish from the offense because the team is passing. Once in a blue moon we�ll see a swing pass, or Roethlisberger check down to Parker. In a game where the pass will be the choice early on, the Steelers need to find other ways to keep Parker involved.

If the Steelers put this game into the hands of Roethlisberger, they can destroy this defense. If they come out with a �we do what we do� sort of gameplan, they will struggle. Fortune favors the bold, Tomlin.

There is one chink in their armor, but it�s a pretty big one. Seymour is hurt, and Green is a weakness in the ground game. The Steelers need to tire this defense out before they�ll be able to inflict true punishment to the Pats defense with the ground game.

The second half is the time to run. That�s when the Ravens really busted this defense open and began to have their way with them. Early on, feed Parker through the passing game. Use draws and quick hitters out of spread formations. Force the Pats to fully respect the pass, wear them down, force them from their base 3-4, and then bring on the FB and begin to pick away at what�s left in the third quarter.

The Patriots are more vulnerable to blitzes than they have ever been in the past. We�ve seen it the past two weeks. They like to empty that backfield. That is when LeBeau has to unleash the dogs and get hits on Brady.

The Steelers will not stop the Pats offense. They can only hope to contain it. I have never believed this was true of any offense I�ve seen in my lifetime. Tom Brady with these receivers are simply too much to handle. The OL makes it too hard to get consistent pressure on Brady. I do not believe the Steelers will move the pocket consistently with the Pats interior OL being as strong as it is.

It�s going to be a battle, and a constant struggle. The pressure will get there at random points in the game. The coverage holding up will give the outside guys time on these tackles. The OLB�s can have success. Keisel can have success.

Cover 2, man underneath is the best way for the Steelers to go. The Steelers get their best match-ups with an extra DB on the field. Townsend and McFadden need to get physical on the line with Welker to limit his initial burst, and then they can and will run with him. Force Brady and these receivers to be perfect. They�re good. They�ll make some plays. They�ll blow a few, too.

The safety play is key. We all know this. Hit these guys whenever they catch anything underneath. If they want to catch passes beyond 10 yards, they have to pay. LeBeau will leave Polamalu and Smith deep much of the game. They will inflict pain on Moss and Stallworth like they�ve never felt before.

In all, LeBeau will have to work his blitzes with 7 men underneath with his blitzes for much of the game. When the Pats empty that backfield, I expect the nickel to blitz on a regular basis. This is best done off an overload.

The best attribute Brady has is his ability to forget about the hits he�s taken as the game has gone on. His courage in the pocket rarely waivers. He�s not going to get happy feet or start throwing passes high like another QB the Steelers recently faced�

It�s that reason alone that will keep the Steelers from dominating this offense for a full 60 minutes. You won�t get at Brady every play, and you won�t get perfect coverage every play. Brady will find what little weakness you have throughout a game and beat you. It helps that he�s usually a very patient QB. That is why he is the best.

The Pats will test the Steelers patience. They saw the Jets get success off fakes. In the past they have run reverses on the Steelers and had success off play-action. The Steelers are a more disciplined secondary now. I think they�ll be prepared for it.

One of my bigger concerns is the ability of the Steelers to deal with the WR alley screens. The Pats are very good at it. The Steelers haven�t been particularly good at defending it. Playing tighter at the line is the best way to deal with teams using this. Put a man on a man underneath, and it�s a bit harder to get blockers on the defenders.

The Pats do not have the patience to run the ball under McDaniels. It�s not that they can�t. It�s that they refuse to hand it off consistently. This may change at some point this season. I think this may be the game. The Steelers will be playing pass first. The Pats have the OL, and a back capable of gaining some yards.

The Patriots like to run the ball on the Steelers. Not because they have had success with it, but because they want to keep the defense honest. They ran the ball 30 times in the 05 meeting. They ran it 30 more times in the 04 AFCC game.

The Jets had success running out of a 3 wide. The Steelers took Hampton off the field frequently. Their tackling was also very sloppy, and that was the real reason for Thomas� success. The Steelers can allow the Pats to have 4 YPC. It doesn�t really matter. The run defense will stiffen in the redzone. As long as the Steelers make the tackle on initial contact, they should be fine. The Pats will run it under 50% of the time. Limit them to average gains and you�re fine.

The x-factor for this game. The Patriots have exceptional units across the board. Welker is their punt return man. He broke a punt return the last time he played the Steelers (week 1, 2006). Hobbs is a dangerous return man. They have a kicker and a punter with exceptional leg strength. They have great kickoff coverage even when people get a chance to return.

I would like to say the Steelers will rise to the occasion, but I sort of doubt it. Special teams are an Achilles heel of this team, and the Pats will probably end up exploiting it.

I can not pick the Steelers to win this week. For the same reason I normally pick the Steelers, I have to go with the Pats. They are simply the better team at this point. I do not have confidence the Steelers will do what they need to do win this game (coaching wise). With the #7, I truly believe this team always has a chance to win the game. I wouldn�t bet against a Steelers upset. I can�t call it here, either. The Steelers may need to take their lumps before they can become truly great.