Déjà vu All Over Again?
Wildcard Pre-Look by PalmerSucks
January 8, 2016
The Stillers just barely squeak into the playoffs and grab the last spot. First up is a rematch at Cincy splattered with bad blood, with Peyton Manning waiting should they make the next round.
What year is this again?
It’s 2016 actually, and things couldn’t have been set up better for the Stillers. Remember that crushing loss at Baltimore a couple weeks ago? Turns out it wasn’t actually so crushing. Had the Stillers won that one they’d have entered as the fifth seed, and a date with the tough Texans defense. Get past that and it’s back up to Foxborough and the Patriots. No, the path of lesser resistance is Cincy then Denver, both teams the Stillers are much better equipped to handle. Just like back in ’05, the sixth seed is the way to go.
Yes, for all the gloating Ravens fans did about “knocking the Stillers out of the playoffs” turns out all they did was knock themselves out of the top five in the draft. Nice job Baltimorons – can’t you do anything right?
So then, back from the nearly-dead, my Stillers-to-the-Bowl prediction lives. I wanted this playoffs badly, not because the team is that great – they’re not – but because, well, who is? The Bungals with a raw back-up QB? The Broncos with Manning, the master of January fades? The worn-down Patriots? The Texans with Hoyer at the helm? Even Kansas City, the squad I believe is really the team nobody wants to face, should eventually wake up and realize they’ve got Alex Smith at quarterback (frankly I can’t stand the Chiefs and their overachieving winning ways).
So here we have Stillers-Bungals round three. I expect Cincy to mimic Baltimore’s defense of a couple weeks ago and drop two safeties high whenever the Stillers show anything more than two receivers on the field. They won’t give up anything on top, and will gladly swap leaving Heath Miller open for Antonio Brown. I expect Cincy to sell out on the deep stuff and dare the Stillers to beat them with Croissant running the ball. Want a quick game key? Pass out of running formations.
The Stillers responded to Baltimore’s two-high look by running Williams the entire opening drive, leaving me me screaming for sending Brown and Bryant on slants and crossers with gobs of YAC potential. I believe that’s the way they should go this time, and if it were up to me, I’d do a major swap: send Miller deep into the safeties and have Brown run some of his routes.
The Bungals will be able to clamp down on Brown if Martavis Bryant doesn’t throw off his cloak of invisibility for this one. Bryant’s done essentially nothing since the first week of December, prompting a public call-out by his quarterback.
I believe Bryant’s experiencing some growing pains as he tries to develop into a complete receiver, rather than the go-router he’s largely been. I love his skill set but my one concern – his ability to catch with his hands – lately has been rearing its head again.
The Stillers can help Bryant by simplifying things for him – sending him deep to occupy the safeties which would allow Brown to break off – and hopefully out – on the intermediate stuff. As I’ve said before, Bryant is the key to the passing attack because he allows Wheaton to play at the number three position, where he excels. It’s vital Bryant play a part in this one, if nothing more than to stop Heyward-Bey from taking the field.
I don’t believe in SEC QBs playing in the NFL, and I’d practically write off the Bungals with AJ McCarron if it weren’t for the fact that he was facing the Stillers defense – who seem to make just about any QB look good. Last time the Stillers faced McCarron they made the moronic mistake of single-covering Green, which led to an easy bomb and some early confidence for the back-up. Despite Dalton’s playoff choking, having McCarron is not an advantage for Cincy, though this kind of talk is all the rage right now. That’s not just me talking – the numbers bear it out: according to Pro Football Focus, Andy Dalton has a passer rating of 92.7 when under pressure, compared to 57.6 for McCarron.
Forget all this talk about the big games he’s played at ‘bama; put pressure on McCarron, and he’ll cough it up – guaranteed.
My major concern going into this one is – surprise surprise – another playoff game played without the feature back. Here’s Todd Haley on the genius of signing an outsider like Ben Tate last January: "We had a guy that hadn't been here and didn't understand protection. It forced us into a little bit of a corner on some of the things we were able to do on game day." Really, ya think so Todd?
Croissant – er uh Touissant -- was a pretty decent runner at Michigan, and may do OK toting the rock, but at only 200 pounds can he handle pass-pro? We’ll see. But hey, at least the Stillers kept things in-house this time. Both he and Todman have been with the team for months, so there shouldn’t be a learning-curve crisis this time. I’ve got an uneasy feeling about this one if Williams can’t go, but if his back-ups can put up 70 yards or more on the ground that feeling would be greatly lessened.
ROETHLISBERGER WATCH: Big Ben’s 94.5 season rating looks good, but his 21-to-16 TD-to-pick ratio is his weakest since 2011. Roethlisberger’s thrown some untimely interceptions, including a late-gamer that turned the momentum in the first game against Cincy, and another against Denver that nearly unsealed a victory. Now he faces his main tormentor, Bungals safety Reggie Nelson, who’s notched four interceptions in his last three games against Ben. With the Stillers run game hampered by the absence of Williams, the Stillers pass game must pick up the slack – and Roethlisberger must be aware of Nelson’s presence at all times.
In the Baltimore loss, Roethlisberger passed up a free six yards to Heath Miller in favor of forcing a deep ball over the middle that got picked. Patience is the key this time out. Sometimes you just have to check down to get down.
As I said, things could not have been set up better for the Stillers going in to the playoffs. It’s up to them now to do something with their good fortune. A fast start would help – McCarron may have won the big games in college, but then again, he never really had to come back from more than a couple touchdowns behind. Nor did he ever have to come face to face with anybody like James Harrison.
Enjoy the game,
Palmer