Long time readers here may be familiar with our Week in Review feature.� This work is stat-focused with twin intent, to identify those components that contribute to winning football and to find some means of evaluating those items� relative weight.�

 

Week 16 in Review:

 

	Previous Total	This Week	Year to date	WF to date	Teams that won this category but lost their game
3rd down conversions	154-65-5	11-4-1	165-69-6	1.40	Bucs, Jets, Bills, Texans
TOP	151-72-1	12-4	163-76-1	1.36	Bucs. Jets, Bills, Cards
Total Yards Offense	143-75-6	12-4	155-79-6	1.32	Bucs, Jets, Chargers
Rushing Attempts	164-47-13	15-1	179-48-13	1.55	Jets
YPA	155-60-9	12-3-1	167-63-10	1.43	Skins, Saints, Bills
>/=+2 Sacks	� 84-25	� 7-1	� 91-26	1.56	Chiefs
* Red Zone (Efficiency)	100-49	� 4-3	104-52	1.33	Bucs, Skins, Texans
* Red Zone (Trips)	121-29	� 9-1	130-30	1.63	Jets
Takeaways (>/=+2)	� 91-7	� 9-2	100-9	1.83	Skins, Cards
Takeaways (+1 only)	� 47-26	� 0-3	47-29	1.21	Lions, Saints, Colts

 

• Red zone stats for Weeks 12 and 15 were not available.

 

Note:� The index figure, WF (winning factor) is calculated as # wins/0.5 total games in category, ties are counted as � wins; WF figures range between 1.0 and 2.0.� See the article, 5 Weeks in Review (October 2003), for various caveats concerning the categories posted above.

 

Coulda shoulda, teams that found a way to lose:

 

Prime time QB who were the blunt losing edge this week:

 

• Against the Falcons, Brad Johnson led the Bucs back but (4) his 1^st half INT had put the defending champs just too far behind.
• The Jets won a couple phases against NE but the Pats picked Chad Pennington (5) times and that was plenty in a 21-16 win.
• Throughout this season, KC has used outstanding ST, Priest Holmes and a considerable takeaway margin to mask the fact that their defense can�t play the run at all.� However, against the Vikings, the Chiefs were (-3) with Trent Green twice picked.� One consistent factor?� Well, their run-D did give +200 yards for the 3^rd week in succession.

 

Another pretender that can�t play the run:

 

• The Eagles allowed SF to rush for 206 yards.� Kevin Barlow had 154; he�s the 6^th RB in the past 7 games to get 100 or better against Philly. ��SF rushed for 206, passed for 208.

 

And the strong running teams:

 

• Last week, Denver had about 42 minutes TOP against Cleveland; this week, 45 against the Colts.� Indy has about the same problems vs. the run as both Philly and KC.
• Raven Jamal Lewis ran for 205 against Cleveland; that gives him 500 for the season, just against the Browns.� Baltimore rushed for 6.7 YPC, passed for just 3.8.�

 

Elsewhere:

 

• Washington allowed 191 yards rushing; A-Train had 141; this was enough to offset the Skins (+2) in takes, which is normally a winning margin.� Chicago has won 4 of their past 5 and may actually be building that momentum for 2004.� �It�s worth noting that several rookies are contributing including QB Rex Grossman and CB Charles Tillman.�

 

• Arizona did some things well but gave (8) sacks; that was sufficient to short-circuit their considerable 5:30 or so TOP.�

 

• Detroit got almost nothing done on offense; 106 TY including 2.5YPC and 2.7 YPA.

 

• Bills: 177 TY, 3.1YPA; Fins 166 TY, 1.9 YPA.� Fins win on (6) sacks and an INT return.� No one has done less with more than Bills� O-coordinator Kevin Gilbride.

 

• The Jags and Saints battled evenly throughout the afternoon; the Saints pulled (almost) even on a late return reminiscent of the Music City miracle a couple years ago.� John Carney walked out and missed his 5^th XP in 408 career attempts.� Maybe, Joe Horn can hook Carney up with that �can you hear me now� deal.

 

 

Steeler Index:�

 

Next week, closing index.

 

Next Opponent:

 

�        Last September, Bill Billick imagined a Week 17 showdown for the AFC North.� Well, that played out; if the Ravens win they�re in, if the Steelers win, the Bengals are in (presuming Cincy closes out against the Browns).

 

• You can figure it�s gonna be all Jamal, all the time (unlike the opener when Kyle Boller had +40 attempts).� �The Steelers 2-4-5 nickel has been shaky against the run for most of this season; in the past few weeks, the base has shown some cracks too.� The last has to be about the absolute lack of D-line depth; despite that, if they go nickel, the PS would be well advised to run a 3-3-5, with Gildon taking a seat.�

 

• While Jamal passed the quarter mile pole against the Browns, the Raven D put down Brown QB 8 times.� Baltimore had a very mediocre pass rush in 2002 but with Terrell Suggs on-board (12 sacks, 3 FF) that�s all over now.�

 

Appendix:

 

Results observed in the previous season are tabulated below.�

 

	Regular season 2002	Winning Factor (WF)
Total yards rushing	168-67-5	1.40
TOP	176-63-1	1.47
100 yard rushers	84-37	1.39
>/= +2 Takeaways	107-13	1.78
YPA	186-48-6	1.55