2004 Game 11, Skins at Pittsburgh

 

As the Steelers position themselves for the playoffs, this:

 

• Home field is a considerable advantage; teams holding that throughout reach the Super Bowl at about 45%.� To this point, the Steelers are T-1 in the AFC with New England.� Since being whipped in the �Burgh, the Pats have won 3 straight.� To insure themselves home field throughout, the Steelers must continue apace, finally gathering that head-to-head coup.�

 

• Indianapolis, with Peyton Manning taking record-breaking advantage of the PI emphasis created for his benefit last winter, is #3 in the AFC.� Indy is 8-3, having won four straight.� The Colts outdoors in cold weather are one thing; the Colts snug in a dome, at home, or even (as we saw on Turkey Day) out on the road, are quite another.� The Steelers� run-O is configured to grind Indy�s D-front but this PS D is mismatched against the Colts� O.� If these teams meet in the PO, home field will be decisive.� To secure that, the PS has to keep winning.

 

• Baltimore has won three in succession, at 7-3 the Ravens are still in the hunt for the AFC North Divisional crown.� In the past few weeks, Kyle Boller has been showing signs of life and, for PS fans, this is not good news.� At present, the Ravens own the tiebreaker so, in effect, the Steelers possess a one game edge in division.

 

So come the Skins, among the worst teams money can buy.� Dan Snyder has a +100M payroll; his team has won three games, on pace for, say, 5.� Considering that home field advantage requires 12-13 wins most years (could be 15 this), Mr. Snyder has two choices.� He could raise the ante next year, at 20M per win spending up to 3x the quid, say a quarter Billion, or he could smarten up.� More than likely, he�ll do neither.�

 

Although the Rooneys are old school and Dan Snyder is not; although the Steelers are winning and the Skins are not, these teams do have a couple things in common.� Those are:

 

• A commitment to the run game:� The Steelers lead the NFL in rushing yards and, more to the point, they lead the NFL in rushing attempts.� The Steelers are averaging 40 runs per game, on pace for 640 in this season.� It�s worth noting that the last team to rush even 600 times was the 1986 Chicago Bears.� That edition ran it 606 times; down from 610 in their SB campaign of �85 and 674 the year previous.� The NFL record for rush attempts is 681, accomplished by the 1977 Oakland Raiders.� The Steelers� team record is 653; that done by the 1976 Steelers over just 14 games.� That set was the Mike Kruzcek team, Kruzcek being the late king of winning rook QB, now dethroned by Big Ben. Figure it out.

 

The Skins aren�t running as much, if only because they don�t have the ball as much.� However, Clinton Portis entered Week 12 as the League�s leader in rush attempts, with 238.� At this point, he�s five back of Edge James, who played Thursday; however, you can bet Portis will regain the lead Sunday, somewhere in Q1.�

 

• A commitment to pressure defense:� The Skins lead the League in blitz %; DC Greg Williams brings the house, relying on his CB, Fred Smoot and Shawn Springs, to hold up .� Coach LeBeau�s philosophy is different, seldom blitzing more than 5; however, those 5 are tough to identify as Coach Dick�s zone blitz schema creates pressure without sacrificing (numbers in) coverage.��

 

The key difference between these teams is in YPA, yards per pass attempt:

 

• The Steeler-O is #7, with an YPA of 7.92.� Combined with a #1 ranked run game, that is a winning margin.

 

• The Skin-O is #32, with an YPA of 5.24.� The adage, run strong throw long, derives from the Joe Gibbs Skins of the 1980�s.� These Joe Gibbs Skins of the New Millennium have been unable to accomplish that; instead, shades of the Steelers in the late 90�s, it�s been throw short, stuff the box, and (so) run ineffectually.�� 5.24 is a truly awful mark especially this season where the League average approaches 7.00.� By way of comparison, #31 Chicago is +7% more effective, at 5.62.

 

Sunday�s winner will be the team that can pass efficiently.� This doesn�t mean most often, rather the better YPA or YPC (yards per completion).� Both teams� defenses have played well to date: the Steelers are #1 and the Skins #2.� Both play aggressively in any case and, given the Skins lo-tech pass attack plus the fact that the Steelers will be lacking their #1 deep threat, Spike Burress, it figures we�ll see 8, 9 in the box on each side every down, all day long.� Examining that pass parameter alone:

 

The Skins have the skill players, but not the O-line: Unlike his predecessor in DC, Coach Gibbs has always developed his pass game on a protection basis.� If his O-line could hold up, then the receiver sets would diversify.� That has not been so: LT Chris Samuels has gone backwards, LG Derrick Dockery is a good move run blocker who struggles in pass pro; RG Ray Brown has been at RT most of the year; Sunday, rook Mark Wilson will make his first start at that spot.� As the Skins can�t block with 5, they�re been trying with 7, even 8, sending just 2 or 3 players into patterns. So:

 

• In two seasons in Denver, Clinton Portis averaged 5.5 YPC, on 563 trips in all.� He scored 29 TD in that term.� Through 10 games in DC, he�s averaged 3.9 YPC and scored twice.� Portis is a quality back but the Skin O-line can make any RB look ordinary.

 

• Laverneues Coles had better than 80 receptions in each of the past two seasons; one with the NJJ and Chad Pennington, one in DC with Pat Ramsey.� Coles had over 1200 yards receiving each season too.� This year, 52 receptions and 606 yards; the Gibbs first-protect mandate, together with the Skin O-line personnel, has effectively neutralized Coles� downfield ability.

 

• Patrick Ramsey�s YPA has gone down every year he�s been in the League.� As a rook, 6.78; last year, 6.43; this, 5.78.� Last week against the Eagles, his first start of the year, Ramsey was 21/34 and 164 yards, a laughable 4.82.� He threw mainly WR hitches and , in the second half, Philly was sitting on those, very nearly bringing a couple back.� Ramsey is a quality prospect and, ultimately, may thrive behind the Skins� new protection schema.� Not yet though: beaten down in two seasons under Steve Spurrier and dismissed last winter in (Gibb�s) preference for oldster Mark Brunell, Ramsey seems to have regressed sharply.

 

• The Gibbs-O has always required a TE or H-back complement.� Last spring, the Skins drafted rook Chris Cooley to fill that role.� Cooley rewarded that confidence with 13 receptions and 3 TD in 7 games.� He�s out now; fill-ins TE Donald Royal, FB Mike Sellers and TE/FB Brian Koslowski have combined for 4 receptions.�

 

Coach LeBeau�s pressure schemes figure to neutralize the Skins pass game; just as, a few games back,� those forced the Pats to keep their TE in, Washington figures to be in max protect Sunday, most of the time.� Therefore, except as Portis breaks a run, the Skins figure to score little, if at all.� It�s worth noting that Washington�s high (scoring) game is 18; since then, they�ve scored all of 83 points in 7 games (<12 per), including six last week vs. Philly.

 

This is one bad offense; however, their defense has kept them in most games.� Washington features a solid 4-deep DT rotation.� Their DE are big guys as opposed, say, to Philly�s lightweight aggregate; as such, they�re well suited to stopping the run.� CB Fred Smoot and Shawn Springs are quality cover guys; this facet allows the Skins a range of blitz options.� After a slow start, Rook Sean Taylor is coming on.� Taylor is a LB size S; addicted to the highlight hit, Taylor can be had over the top but going forward, he is a force.�

 

Washington�s D has played effectively despite the absence of 2 LB, Lavar Arrington and Mike Barrow, who were projected to start.� Additionally, Matt Bowen, who opened at SS, is down for the year.� Their replacements: MLB Antonio Pierce, WLB Lemar Marshall and SS Ryan Clark are active but ordinary.� Still:

 

• The bad news is that Washington leads the League in YPC allowed.� They�ve given just 3.2 per rush.� The good news is that a couple teams have run effectively against the Skins.� Baltimore averaged 3.6 as Jamal Lewis went 28/116.� Tom Jones of Chicago was 24/97; the Bears 4.5 in all.� The Skins have feasted on bad run teams (T-Bay, Detroit and Philly) but they�ve have jammed up quality run aggregates too including: Green Bay, NYG and Cincinnati.�

 

• The bad news is that the Skin D is top 5 in YPA against and passer rating against.� They are #6 in air yards allowed and have throttled down some top WR, such as Terrell Owens (2 receptions last week).� On the plus side, they have been susceptible to auxiliary receivers.� RB Brian Westbrook had 2 TD receptions last week; RB Ahmad Green was the Pack�s leading receiver vs. the Indigenous of DC, as was Akbar Hakim of Detroit.�

 

Unfortunately, the PS has made little use for any receiver past their #1 and #2, Ward and Burress.� Consider:

 

• Steeler TE have (13) receptions in all.� (11) individual TE in the league have doubled that, or better.� One has more than 60, 3 more than 50, 3 more than 40, 2 more than 30 and two more than 26.

 

• Steeler RB have (24) receptions in all.� (12) individual RB have more including, say, Jerald Sowell (29) and Curtis Martin (27), both of the Jets.

 

• The aggregate haul, (37), for all Steeler RB and TE is exceeded by (8) individual TE and (3) individual RB.

 

In fairness, it should be noted that these Steelers don�t pass much.� In fact, they are #31 in pass attempts, with just 227 through 10 games.� Certainly, that will depress their receivers� haul.� Still:

 

2004: percentage of TE/RB receptions per pass attempt.

 

	Catches by TE or RB	Total # pass attempts	Rate	Remarks
Steelers	37	227	0.16, ~1 in 6	Steelers have the RB to up this %.
KC	117	339	0.35%, ~1 in 3	KC is the #3 rush team; like Atlanta (#2), the Chiefs have bad WR but good TE.
NJJ	88	263	0.33, ~1 in 3	The #4 rush team; however, RB are featured in the pass game.
San Diego	110	295	0.37, ~1 in 3	Antonio Gates leads all TE with 62 grabs; LT caught about 100 balls last year.
Indianapolis	78	356	0.22, ~ 1 in 5	Like the PS, the top 3 receivers are WR.� However, even here, TE and RB get a larger role.
Green Bay	104	382	0.27, ~1 in 4.	Traditionally, like the PS, a run strong, throw long team.� As is true for the Jets, RB are featured in the pass game.

 

The PS don�t have the TE who can factor but they do have the RB, especially Staley and Haynes.� Both the Pack and Jets provide models of teams that rely on their run game, but also (heavily) use their RB to catch the ball.� That�s a paradigm shift for these PS but, as the playoffs approach, such may be in order.

 

This season, the Steelers have overcome injuries to key personnel.� Leaving aside Vincent for Simmons (which, IMO then was likely to be an upgrade), Larry Foote has approached respectability subbing for Kendrell Bell, as has Chris Hoke subbing for Big Casey.� Now, for a game or so, the PS will have to work without Spike Burress.

 

Do they have another deep threat? Well, past Lee Mays and his hands of stone, there�s no obvious candidate.� Then again, Hoke didn�t figure to have Hampton�s game; indeed, he does not but the PS has won anyway.� Same deal this weekend; while the Steelers are facing (perhaps) the most well rounded defense they�ve dealt with to date, they�re doing it without one primary weapon.� Still, they�ve got to go work and if they cannot challenge the Skins vertically, they may do so horizontally.� There, the receiving abilities of Duce Staley and Verron Haynes do figure.�

 

Finally:

 

• It�s highly unlikely that the PS can continue to rush 40 times per game.� As noted previously, that was common in the 70�s, and to a lesser extent in the 80�s. �However, D-linemen then went 250-270# and LB around 220#.� Today, those guys would be LB and S.� Muscle builds but ligament, tendon and capillary do not.

 

• The 1976 PS edition, which relied on the run game at a rate of 279 pass to 653 run, reached the AFCC but with both starting RB down for that tilt, got nothing done there.

 

• The 2001 edition, which rushed 580 times, went down in the AFCC as their run game floundered

 

Sure, these PS have been able to throw downfield, as, say, the 2001 team could not.� Not this week though and, regardless, this edition will require a third component, a ball control pass game, to get through to the finale.� Burress� absence this week may be seen as a handicap; better it be considered an opportunity to test that (third) facet. �It�s about the playoffs now; that so, it�s time for the PS O to diversify.� Every DC understands the 2004 PS are a run-first team with a solid vertical pass attack; it�s time to show them a horizontal pass game.

 

More likely, the PS will stick; certainly the Doering signing suggests that.� So, it�s worth noting that:

 

• In two games in Ohio, the PS D was responsible for scoring 17 of the teams� 43 points.

 

• So far this season, the Wash O has scored 12 TD; opposing D�s have scored 4 against.�

 

�

Appendix: previous stat observations

 

	Years��� Observed	Composite Record	WF	Remarks
+2 takeaways	2	214-23	1.81	A killer stat with a WF translating to 14 wins in 16 games.� However, this occurs in only 46% of all games.
RZ trips	1	139-33	1.62	A function of field position, which is to say offense, takeaways and ST returns.� RZ efficiency is more frequently cited but that had a WF of just 1.30 last season
+2 sacks	1	101-28	1.57	A composite of sacks and pressures would be preferable but pressure stats aren�t kept.� Therefore, this is an approximation of the effects of overall pressure.� Occurred in about 50% of all games in 2003.
Rushing attempts	1	193-49-14	1.56	A better indicator than either total yards rushing (WF 1.40) or 100-yard rushers (WF 1.39).�
YPA	2	370-112-16	1.52	A measure of passing efficiency to include protection.�
TOP	2	352-142-2	1.42	Time of possession, misleading in that some bad offenses play slow.
3rd down conversions	1	175-75-6	1.39
Total Offense	1	169-81-6	1.34	Not a great indicator, adjusted total yards (offense yards + return yards- penalty yards) probably is a truer test.

 

Note to new readers:

 

WF represents winning factor; it is an index figure derived by dividing the number of wins by � all games played.� Ties are counted as half a win.�� It�s clear enough then that, say, a 1.50 factor translates to 12 wins in a 16 game season (12/8 = 1.50).� That represents a dead-sure first round bye and, to the extent that SB trips are correlated with first rounds byes, that�s your number.� Or maybe 1.375 as 11/8 =1.375, with 11 wins being about the minimum for bye team

 

 

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