Smitter�s Week 14� Picks:

Last week: 6-10��� Overall: 88-104� 45.8%��

FLG�s last week:� 1-2�� Overall� 16-23� 41.0%

 

Once again, the way to make money is to be the home underdog. Last week, home dogs were 5-1, and are now 44-21, 67.7% on the year. This week, there are 6 home dogs, and I am picking them all. (which means this is the week they go 0-fer!)

 

Pittsburgh (- 7 �) over Cleveland � In the bitter cold, wind, and snow, the Stillers defense, even with Carter and Smith starting at safety, will make life miserable for Derek Anderson tonight.

 

Baltimore (+ 3 �) over Kansas City � Chiefs have had a week to think about their meltdown against the Brownies, while the Ravens will have had 10 days to wonder what happened in the loss to Cincinnati. The Chiefs choked against the Brownies, �nuff said.

 

Tampa Bay (+ 3 �) over Atlanta � Atlanta surprised me last week, and should easily beat the woeful Bucs this week, but this is the first of the home underdogs.

 

Detroit (- 2 �) over Minnesota � The Vikings haven�t won a game against the spread since mid-October. The streak continues this week.

 

Tennessee (+ 1 �) over Houston � Vince Young is playing better than David Carr right now.

 

NY Giants (+ 3 �) over Carolina � Carolina is coming off a short week, in a game they lost that they should have won. The Giants showed some spunk last week in their loss to the Cowboys.

 

New Orleans (+ 6 �) over Dallas � The way Dallas has been playing, one could make the argument that they are one of the top 2 or 3 teams in the league right now. Just a hunch, but the Saints come to town and steal a win.

 

Buffalo (+ 3 �) over NY Jets � Buffalo hasn�t lost ATS since the same week that the Vikings last won ATS. Look for that trend to continue this week.

 

Jacksonville (+ 1 �) over Indianapolis � Normally, I would have picked the Colts in this one, but Jax is a home underdog.

 

Washington (+ 1 �) over Philadelphia � See above. Skins are the home underdog, plus Philly coming off the short week.

 

Oakland (+ 11 �) over Cincinnati � While I think the Bengals shouldn�t have any problem beating the Raiders, I think the Raiders keep it close.

 

Miami (+ 3 �) over New England � Home underdog. Plus, I�m going with the warm weather team playing a cold weather team in the warm weather.

 

Green Bay (+ 4 �) over San Francisco � San Fran laid an egg last week against the Saints, while all the Packers did was allow the most first half points ever. Something about San Fran being a home favorite to anyone, though.

 

Arizona (+ 3 �) over Seattle � Even though Arizona is a home underdog, this is the game that I think the home dog has the most chance of losing. But, I�m sticking with the Cardinals.

 

San Diego (- 7 �) over Denver � Jay Cutler could be in for a long evening against the Chargers defense. Chargers will continue their, um, charge, to home-field advantage.

 

St Louis (+ 6 �) over Chicago � What a dilemma for Lovie Smith � the Bears are 10-2, and cruising towards home-field advantage in the NFC, but Rex Grossman has been playing like crap. That will catch up to the Rams this week, who have major work ethic problems of their own.

 

 

 

 

FLG�s

Tennessee over Houston

NY Giants over Carolina

San Diego over Denver