Big Ben is playing great this year in the playoffs, especially compared to last January, and most people agree that Ben gives us our best chance to win the big one since 1980, etc. There has been some debate as to how important the QB position is when it comes to Bill Cowher�s teams not being able to win the Super Bowl/AFC Champ game, etc.. I wanted to look into the matter further�.
In looking at the Super Bowl from the past 25 years, I noticed that while, on occasion, the inferior QB won, the superior QB performance always won. Or, to be clearer, the inferior QB performance never won, despite the skill or stature of the QB from a career perspective. While Elway, Kelly and others were great QBs, they did not play well in their Super Bowl losses for the most part, while their counterparts, Simms, Montana, Williams, Aikman, Rypen, etc. made fewer major mistakes and didn�t lose the game for their team. In short, they did NOT choke when the pressure was on. I think it can be hard to determine who is choke-proof and who is not until you throw them into the fire a few times.
Regarding the Stillers under Cowher, I think Cowher was reasonably happy with O�Donnell and Kordell going into the 95 Super Bowl, and the 97, and 01 champ games respectively, but they both choked it up come crunch time. O�Donnell played well for the most part in 95, but then threw 3 picks in the big game. Kordell threw lots of picks in 1997 and choked in the champ game, so this one I feel that Cowher takes the blame as he should have been more mindful of his mistake-prone �rookie�, but I also understand why he kept Kordell despite this loss as he was young and maybe he�d learn from his mistakes. By the time 2001 rolled around, Kordell had improved significantly with a new OC and a simplified game plan. He was making better decisions, looking off defenders, and playing relatively smarter and safer. Based on his performance, it was reasonable to play Kordell with a decent amount of confidence in the post-season. And while Cowher should take some blame for that loss in 2001 against NE, Kordell also choked it up when we needed a comeback in the 4th quarter. To be honest, Cowher did ignore his glaring QB problem in 1998-1999, and if it were me, Kordell would have been gone. But based on his performance in 2001, there was good reason to see if he could perform in the playoffs that year. To me, that loss in 2001 was the clear and final evidence that Kordell was never going to win a Super Bowl, and even Cowher was ready to replace him at that point.
***
I think QB performance, particularly the amount of mistakes they make, is very important, regardless of their career record, etc. Let�s take a look at Super Bowl QB interceptions for the past 25 years:
| Year | Score | Winning QB | INT | Losing QB | INT |
| 2005 | New England 24, Philadelphia 21 | Brady | 0 | McNabb | 3 |
| 2004 | New England 32, Carolina 29 | Brady | 1 | Delhomme | 0 |
| 2003 | Tampa Bay 48, Oakland 21 | Johnson | 1 | Gannon | 5 |
| 2002 | New England 20, St. Louis 17 | Brady | 0 | Bulger | 2 |
| 2001 | Baltimore 34, N.Y. Giants 7 | Dilfer | 0 | Collins | 4 |
| 2000 | St. Louis 23, Tennessee 16 | Warner | 0 | McNair | 0 |
| 1999 | Denver 34, Atlanta 19 | Elway | 1 | Chandler | 3 |
| 1998 | Denver 31, Green Bay 24 | Elway | 1 | Favre | 1 |
| 1997 | Green Bay 35, New England 21 | Favre | 0 | Blesoe | 4 |
| 1996 | Dallas 27, Pittsburgh 17 | Aikman | 0 | O'Donnell | 3 |
| 1995 | San Francisco 49, San Diego 26 | Young | 0 | Humphries | 2 |
| 1994 | Dallas 30, Buffalo 13 | Aikman | 1 | Kelly | 1 |
| 1993 | Dallas 52, Buffalo 17 | Aikman | 0 | Reich/Kelly | 4 |
| 1992 | Washington 37, Buffalo 24 | Rypen | 0 | Kelly | 4 |
| 1991 | N.Y. Giants 20, Buffalo 19 | Hoss | 0 | Kelly | 0 |
| 1990 | San Francisco 55, Denver 10 | Montana | 0 | Elway | 2 |
| 1989 | San Francisco 20, Cincinnati 16 | Montana | 0 | Esiason | 1 |
| 1988 | Washington 42, Denver 10 | Williams | 1 | Elway | 3 |
| 1987 | N.Y. Giants 39, Denver 20 | Simms | 0 | Elway | 1 |
| 1986 | Chicago 46, New England 10 | McMahon | 0 | Grogan | 2 |
| 1985 | San Francisco 38, Miami 16 | Montana | 0 | Marino | 2 |
| 1984 | L.A. Raiders 38, Washington 9 | Plunkett | 0 | Theismann | 2 |
| 1983 | Washington 27, Miami 17 | Theismann | 2 | Woodley/Strock | 1 |
| 1982 | San Francisco 26, Cincinnati 21 | Montana | 0 | Anderson | 2 |
| 1981 | Oakland 27, Philadelphia 10 | Plunkett | 0 | Jaworski | 3 |
| Average | 0.3 | 2.2 |
Only once did the winning QB make more than one INT, and only 3 times did the losing QB have fewer INTs than the winning QB.
Now I understand that some interceptions are luck, and some are the result of high-risk throws to make a comeback, etc. You can also go on and on debating whose fault these INTs are: the OLine, WRs, etc. But I think at least some of these INTs were the QBs fault, and because of that, I think this table illustrates an undeniable trend that in the Super Bowl (or any big game), the QB that makes fewer mistakes is most likely going to win, even if the coach is �inferior�. Look at this past weekend. In the DEN/NE game, Brady looked shaky and very un-Brady like all game and threw that horrendous pick in the end zone. Throw in 5 turnovers, some bad calls, and NE gets the loss. Was Belichick out-coached, or did his team not play well, or both? The eternal argument =)
My overall point there seems to be a very strong correlation to inferior QB performances and losses in big games, regardless if the QB was/is �inferior� the remainder of their career. The Steelers have had some dismal QB performances the past 14 years in big games, and I would like to see how we do when the QB actually plays decent. If Ben plays really well and we still lose the game, then I�ll be ready to embrace other schools of thought, but I think it should be noted that many Super Bowl-winning coaches that are �clearly better� than Cowher like Belichick, Shanahan, etc., have also had a benefit of QB performances that were, at the minimum, not detrimental to their team, if not spectacular. I do not think this is a coincidence.
My current opinion of Cowher is that he is a good coach, but not a great one. He is much like some of the Steelers quarterbacks in years past in that you don�t expect them to win the game, but you hope they don�t lose it for you. Cowher may have lost some big games for us, but most of the time he has some help from gagging QBs among other things. Last week was a major win and I hope a big stepping stone for Billy as a coach, as his team played very focused and went with a game plan that was uncharacteristic for the Steelers to say the least. He learned from his mistakes in the regular season and it was great to see. If Cowher can continue to keep his mind �open� like he did last week, this is really our best chance in a long time.
Go Steelers!
