| Rnk | Team | Prediction | Comments |
| 1. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 12-4 | Little has changed in Tampa from last season. The defense should still be dominant. The offense efficient and versatile behind consumate professional Johnson. Can the Bucs stay as healthy as last season? Can the defense score as often? Can the team keep their focus after winning the Super Bowl? The talent remains in place, so the answers to those questions will determine whether the Bucs will repeat. |
| 2. | Philadelphia Eagles | 11-5 | The defense, especially the secondary, remains the team's strength. Although Douglas was a bit overrated and one dimensional, replacing his sack total won't be easy. Expect defensive coordinator Johnson to find a way. Unbelievable offensive skill position depth makes the Eagles the one team that can overcome injuries to marquee players. Detmer and Feeley have proven more than capable even though McNabb is the unquestioned offensive leader. Reid likes to spread the ball around so Staley, Buckhalter, Westbrook, Ritchie, Thrash, Pinkston, Mitchell, McMullen, Lewis, and Smith will most likely all be involved in the offense. |
| 3. | Green Bay Packers | 11-5 | The Packers probably aren't really this good, but their division is such a joke that they will basically be spotted 6 wins. I mean, the bottom feeders of the NFC North actually makes the Steelers competition in the AFC North look tough. Green Bay still has Favre, Green, and Driver on offense. Retaining the services of free agent Gbaja-Biamila was a key to the defense. Harris was brought in from Philly to help the secondary. First round pick Barrett is pencilled in as the starter at middle LB. Although far from dominant, the defense should be plenty good enough given the weak schedule. Of course, should the incredibly durable Favre miss any time due to injury the NFC North would be thrown into turmoil. With Peterson and Nall behind him no team's fortunes are more tied to a single player than the Pack's to Favre. |
| 4. | Tennessee Titans | 11-5 | McNair is a gritty throwback that hates to lose. McNair and George enter the season healthier than the recent past. The key is keeping them and Derrick Mason on the field because the Titans lack offensive skill position depth. Even though injuries have taken a toll on Kearse, the defense has other playmakers that stepped up last season. |
| 5. | St. Louis Rams | 11-5 | This is probably the swan song for Warner and Faulk. The overall talent level has been in decline because of poor personel decisions by Martz. Still, the veteran skill position talent from Vermeil's Super Bowl champion seems primed to make one last stand. An easy schedule and less than competative division won't hurt. |
| 6. | Oakland Raiders | 10-6 | The window of opportunity is quickly closing for the Raiders. Oakland again played salary cap games to keep most of their roster intact, but the day of reckoning is coming. This is an old team that looked tired and slow in the Super Bowl last year. Perhaps worst of all, the look of panic in the eyes of Gannon and Callahan as the big game unfolded raises concerns for even the immediate future. |
| 7. | Miam Dolphins | 10-6 | The Dolphins almost always look like one of the top teams in the AFC heading into the season. This year is no exception. Williams is a dominant back that allows the offense to control the clock. Fiedler is a serviceable starter. Although currently injured, Griese is a major upgrade at backup QB and should be able to efficiently lead the team should Fiedler miss time in the second half of the season. The defense is dominant. Even so, something always seems to go wrong down the stretch for the Dolphins. Wannstedt needs to reverse that trend or he will be looking for a new job in 2004. |
| 8. | Indianapolis Colts | 10-6 | Manning has gotten a reputation for being unable to win the big game due to his 0-3 playoff record. That is really unfair. The problem in Indianapolis has not been Manning or the offense. The problem has been the defense. Dungy was brought in to improve the defense and things looked pretty good in the regular season. The playoffs were another story. Dungy's lack of emotion seemed to be a problem in Tampa and last year's playoff performance amplified the issue. It will be interesting to see if Dungy (and by association Manning) can win a big game and overcome the criticism. |
| 9. | New England Patriots | 10-6 | The decision to cut defensive captain Milloy was baffling. Milloy did not make as many big plays last year, but was a big hitter that punished ball carries and receivers across the middle. Cutting him is a risk even though his cap number was higher than his skills warranted. The negative reaction of his ex-teamates to the move had to be expected. Before the Milloy cut the Pats had spent the offseason addressing their major needs in the defensive front seven. Colvin was the best premium free agent signed by any team. First rounder Warren and preseason acquisition Washington add bulk to the defensive front. The only glaring need not addressed was RB. Smith is shot and Faulk does not seem to be capable of shouldering the full time load. That means all the pressure is on Brady. While he should be able to handle it, if Brady has a down year or is forced to miss any significant time due to injury the Patriots will be in big trouble. |
| 9. | Atlanta Falcons | 10-6 | The Falcons were a trendy pick for the Super Bowl before Vick broke his leg in preseason. While I wouldn't have gone that far even before the injury this is a solid, improving team. Johnson should be good enough to help this team stay afloat until Vick is ready to return. Reeves is a proven regular season winner that has gotten more wins than talent would suggest out of teams in Denver, New York, and Atlanta. Despite never suceeding as a head coach Phillips is a master of the 3-4 defense. |
| 11. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 10-6 | Should Maddox manage to stay healthy the Steelers will be very dangerous. The receiver corps is the best in football. Zereoue and Haynes add a big play dimension out of the backfield. The offensive line has been a preseason concern, but I actually have faith in Grimm's ability to craft a dominant unit out of the talent at hand. Losing Porter at the start of the season doesn't help, but even so the defense can not be run against. Everyone knows about the problems in the secondary. The keys should be Logan and Polamalu quickly earning playing time at the expense of Alexander and to a lesser extent Taylor proving he is an upgrade on Poteat. |
| 12. | New York Giants | 9-7 | Strange that a team in the nation's top media market that went to the Super Bowl only 3 years ago can be so non-descript. The Giants are a second tier playoff contender that gets more press for the outragous antics of Shockey than for their on the field performance. That is a bit unfair to Collins, Barber, and Toomer. Collins especially has turned around his career and life after being run out of Carolina and New Orleans due to a drinking problem. |
| 13. | Buffalo Bills | 9-7 | Before last year the Bills had the opportunity to add Bledoe and pulled the trigger for the relatively modest cost of a 2003 first round pick. He was a major upgrade at the QB position. This year the Bills added Adams, Posey, Spikes, and most recently Milloy to the defense. I have not jumped onto the Bills bandwagon quite to the extent of some of the national media that seem to believe they are legitimate Super Bowl contenders. Still, there is no denying that Donahoe has done a quick and masterful job of increasing the teams talent level. |
| 14. | Kansas City Chiefs | 9-7 | Holmes seems to be back healthy and happy after signing a 4 year contract extension. The Cheifs find themselves with the same strengths and weaknesses as last year. Holmes and Gonzalez are the only legitimate weapons available to Green on offense. The receiver corps was inexplicably not upgraded at all in the offseason. Plus, because of concerns about Holmes the Cheifs used their first round pick on RB Johnson instead of adding desperately needed talent to one of the leagues worst defenses. Holliday and Barber were added through free agency. They can't hurt, but hardly seem to be enough to really turn things around. |
| 15. | Carolina Panthers | 8-8 | Fox built a solid defensive unit around the dynamic Peppers. Now the Panthers need to address the offense. Davis should help control the clock and keep the defense rested. Unfortunately, the offense still lacks a big play capability. Peete is a caretaker at the QB position. Free agent signee Delhomme was a camp disapointment. At least Delhomme was only signed for two years at a reasonable cost. |
| 16. | New Orleans Saints | 8-8 | The Saints have flat out quit down the stretch the last two season on Haslett. It is hard to see how anything has improved. Stallworth should be more confortable in his second season, giving Brooks another weapon along with McAlister and Horn. McAlister needs to stay on the field for virtually every play because the Saints have nothing behind him. The real issues are on the defense. The LB corps is uninspiring and the CB tandem a major risk, Ambrose being best suited to nickel duties and Carter not someone that should be counted on. |
| 17. | Seattle Seahawks | 8-8 | Much like Haslett and Martz, Holmgren is the perfect example of why a coach should not have final say on personel decisions. Holmgren did finally seem to hit paydirt in the second half with Hasselbeck and Robinson. Along with Aleaxnder and Jackson the offense should be able to score plenty of points. Jones deciding to sign his franchise tender should help offset the loss of Terry to suspension. Overcoming injuries to Eaton and Springs on defense will not be easy. |
| 18. | San Diego Chargers | 8-8 | Shottenheimer is a proven regular season coach that will undoubtedly get the Chargers to the playoffs. The time just does not appear to be now. Tomlinson is a top weapon and Brees has the tools to develop. While Boston appears to be an upgrade on Conway, no other legitimate weapons were added for Brees. The loss of Seau should not be minimized. Despite having slowed down a step he was the emotional leader of the Chargers for years and his loss can not be measured in on the field performance alone. The Chargers have added alot of young talent to the secondary through the draft in the last two years and things should improve on that side of the ball as they develop. |
| 19. | Baltimore Ravens | 8-8 | Has Billick finally found himself a franchise QB? That probably won't be determined for three or four years. Boller was at least good enough to start immediately over Redman. The main offensive weapon will continue to be Lewis. A solid offensive line and defense should keep the Ravens competative despite a rookie QB a very limitted receiving corps. The defense was rebuilt on the fly and survived an injury to Ray Lewis and the departure of Marvin Lewis. With Ray back and Suggs added to the mix they should be able to steal a game or two. |
| 20. | New York Jets | 7-9 | The issue here isn't so much Pennington missing the first 12 games or more. Having to play Testeverde is a concern, but the Jets had plenty of other concerns even with Pennington. While the other teams in the division were improving, the Jets were losing talent throughout the offseason. The big play ability of Coles was not adequately replaced by Conway. No legitimate replacement for Morton has emerged which will cost the Jets valuable field position. Nutten, the replacement signed for Thomas, unexpectedly retired. The attempt to improve the interior defensive line through trading up for Robertson in the draft seems more like a long term project than immediate upgrade. This was shaping up to be a drop from first to last in the AFCs most competative division, Pennington or no Pennington. |
| 21. | San Fransisco 49ers | 7-9 | The reasoning behind firing a winner like Marriucci and replacing him with a retread like Erickson escapes me. Erickson wants to spread the field vertically on offense which is not the forte of Garcia. To make matters worse Garcia is suffering from a bulging disc in his back. The receiving corps still lacks talent and depth after Owens. An injury to Webster has weakened an already suspect secondary. This has the look of a team primed for a fall. |
| 22. | Denver Broncos | 7-9 | Shanahan was a genius when his QB was Elway, but has been unable to produce with anyone else under center. Plummer always seems to make the big mistake at the wrong time. Although Plummer will undoubtedly be better in the locker room than the disliked Griese, on the field he looks like a downgrade. And anyway, the real problem with the Broncos last year was on the defensive side of the ball. |
| 23. | Cleveland Browns | 7-9 | If nothing else the Browns should be exciting, playing a bunch of 35-32 games decided in the final minutes. Chosing Holcomb over Couch was a brave decision that deserves kudos. The receiver corps is talented and Green came on in the second half of his rookie campaign. The offensive line is an issue and the season ending injury to Verba didn't help. The disapointing play of Warren and Brown has really hurt the defensive line. The linebacker corps was revamped due to cap issues. Starters Davis, Taylor, and Bentley were all picked in the 4th or 5th round of last year's draft. None are sure things. |
| 24. | Minnesota Vikings | 7-9 | Losing Bennett was a severe blow to the offense. Bennett's presence took pressure off both Culpepper and Moss. Now he must be replaced by Williams, Smith, and Chapman. Smith is the wild card. A talented rookie that has been haunted by off the field issues. At least the Vikings have experience with that type of player. The real problem though continues to be defense. Free agent signee Claiborne and first round pick Williams should help out Hovan in the front seven. Their addition is not enough. The secondary especially continues to be a sore spot. |
| 25. | Washington Redskins | 6-10 | Snyder has yet to figure out that you can't run an NFL franchise like a fantasy team. Coles provides a big play threat next to Gardner. Canidate should fit Spurrier's offense better than Davis. Morton should help improve starting field position. Still, Ramsey is unproven and Spurrier's impatience could hurt offensive continuity. A lack of talent in the interior of the defense will make stopping the run difficult. |
| 26. | Dallas Cowboys | 6-10 | Parcells will try to win with defense and special teams. Carter was named the starting QB almost by default. He has not shown much passing accuracy or decision making ability in his short career. Galloway and Glenn are past ther prime. Hambrick's cocky attitude and nonchalant work habits have not endeared him to Parcells. Insiders insist Jones and Parcells will be able to get along, but it will be interesting to see how losing affects their relationship. This looks like a long term rebuilding effort and Parcells is not a young man. |
| 27. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 6-10 | This is a team in transition. Brunnell is a lame duck starting QB with Leftwich and Garrard waiting in the wings. The receiver corps is arguably worse than the Cardinals until Smith returns from his suspension. It would be difficult to cobble together one healthy RB using parts from Taylor and Fuamatu-Ma'afala. Del Rio has his work cut out for him, although he should be a breathe of fresh air for players that had tired of the constant ranting of Coughlin. |
| 28. | Detriot Lions | 5-11 | Marriucci is a proven winner that given time should be able to right this franchise. He is clearly a major upgrade on Mornhigweg, the Kotite of the new millenium. Harrington and Rogers are nice building blocks. Gary, Bryson, and Cobourne are really not much of a downgrade from the injured Stewart. |
| 29. | Cincinnati Bengals | 5-11 | Lewis and Palmer seem to be steps in the right direction. A solid draft gives further hope for the future. The Bengals have been the worst run franchise of the last decade so I don't want to go overboard in predicting improvement despite having a great deal of respect for Lewis. Kitna is serviceable and will give Palmer some time to develop. Still, his penchant for making the big mistake at the wrong time could cost this team a win or two. |
| 30. | Chicago Bears | 4-12 | The Bears are in serious decline after winning 13 games just 2 years ago. If any coach is going to be fired in mid-season expect that coach to be Jauron. This mess is not all Jauron's fault, although his stubborn refusal to replace Shoop (the worst offensive coordinator in the NFL) is a serious mistake. This team has been hamstrung by the poor personel decisions of GM Angelo. Oh, and by the way, even though I was never as anti-Stewart as some Steeler fans I would expect Grossman to be starting by week 8. |
| 31. | Houston Texans | 4-12 | The failure to more seriously address the offensive line after surrendering a record 76 sacks last season makes no sense. At least Carr should be happy that some skill position talent was added to make his job a bit easier. Mack is a a powerful between the tackle runner that should help take some pressure off the passing game. Hollings should provide a nice change of pace. Johnson is an athletic game breaker, although he is a raw talent that will probably need time to fully develop. |
| 32. | Arizona Cardinals | 2-14 | The Cardinals allowed most of their skill position talent to leave via free agency or trade. Even though Plummer, Jones, and Boston were major disapointments it is hard to believe their replacements won't be worse. Giving carries to an aging Smith over Shipp is a waste of time. Signing Blake instead of drafting Leftwich or Boller was flat out stupid. The defense is going to be even worse than expected (if that is possible) after season ending injuries to Starks and Vanden Bosch. |