Divisional
Preview:
The Steelers got a couple breaks in Cincinnati, one, literally, when Carson Palmer blew a knee on the same snap Chris Henry went down.� The second, while the main object of desire in last week�s preview, was not so obvious; at least not to the average Bayless.�� Remember?
� �To win, the Steelers must limit the Bengal O.� That means, get Rudi Johnson out of the game.�
Astonishingly,
Johnson last touched the ball in the Bengals 5th possession.� When Cincy came out for # 6, it was still a
1-score game, 21-17 Pittsburgh.� There still
were about 25 minutes to go; plenty of time except, evidently, to the Bengal
braintrust. With Rudi on the sideline, Cincinnati never again threatened.� Facing no run game at all, Coach LeBeau
dropped 8 and 9 into coverage.� Kitna
threw under, or didn�t throw at all, and the Bengal aerial circus, 66.0 YPA
after one throw, closed at ~6.1.
Brilliant.�� Of course, neither Palmer nor Rudi Johnson
play defense.� Pretty much that was true
too of those Bengals paid to do so.� The
PS tallied 31, little different than their season mark v. Cincy, which rose
from 29.0 to 29.66.� Yes, Cincinnati
stopped the run, to some extent, but as in their final seven (meaningful) games,
when they allowed 30 points per, they paid the price.� As noted last time, Cincinnati�s is not a playoff worthy
defense.� As noted last time, takeaways
took it.� The PS tallied two,
officially.� A bungled FG try (effectively)
added another.�
Meanwhile,
presumably, the Colts gamboled beneath their practice dome.� Indianapolis hasn�t played a consequential
game in 4 weeks, not since Shawn Merriman and the Diego Bolts knocked them from
the ranks of the unbeaten.� It goes
without saying that the PSD lacks a Merriman; it�s arguable whether they
possess a Luis Castillo.� Noteworthy to
none, Merriman was my own #1 defender in the last draft and Castillo (who had
an unassisted sack that time) my own #1 D-linemen.� Of course, the PS had a shot at neither, but sticking to this
(self-aggrandizing) theme, these excerpts, lightly updated and (mercifully)
compressed, from our Game 11 assessment of the Indy-O.��
Colts� O-side personnel:
�
Per Football Outsiders, the Colt O-line is the finest unit in the League.� They are #1 in sack rate (allowed) at 3.4%; the League average is 6.7%.� They are #1 in �line adjusted yards rushing�, at 4.71; the League average is 4.07.� This is a slap at most draft prognosticators.� While LT Tarik Glenn is a former R1 pick, RT Ryan Diem is a R4 guy and RG Jake Scott, R5.� OC Jeff Saturday was not drafted at all; LG Ryan Lilja is a former UDFA too.�
Indianapolis is strictly a zone blocking team; Saturday is
a Hartings-size OC but the Colt OGs are small, 280# and 285#.� In contrast, Indy fields twin jumbo high
quality OT: Glenn, a finesse player, is 332# and Diem, a mauling type, is
320#.� In general, the Colts run to
their strength, which is on the edge.� The
Colt IOL tandem inside, with one scrapping to the second level.� The playside OT typically hooks while the
offside OT drops into the B-gap, sealing backside.� The Colts� IOL do not get much movement, even in tandem;
therefore, there is only a limited cutback threat associated with their
stretch.�� Indianapolis is ranked high
running between the tackles but most of that is off draw; like their stretch, a
pass action run. �
You know the principals: Peyton Manning, Edge James, Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne.� Indy runs a single RB attack, almost exclusively.� In years past, the Colts split equally between twin tight and 3-wide sets.� This year, with Marcus Pollard in Detroit, they are dominantly 3-wide.� Brandon Stokely is #3; he is a smallish WR with good speed.� In the Warner-Ram mode, Stokely typically overmatches an opponents� 3rd CB.� He and TE Dallas Clark are T-2 at 13.2YPC; Harrison leads the way at 14.0.� Of all Colt receivers, Clark has the best YAC numbers; lost among the luminaries in Indy, his big play capacity is generally underrated.��
Finally, the Indy O will test the Steelers� endurance.� There are 3 components to that:
� Chasing the stretch laterally.
� Manning�s pre-snap antics typically keep D-linemen in stance.� In last season�s Divisional round, the Pats countered that with a number of 5-6 LB sets, virtually eliminating down linemen.�
� The no-huddle, like the Bills� old Red Gun (also constructed by current Indy GM Bill Polian) limits substitution options.� This is going to be a problem for Hampton and, maybe, KVO.���
What to expect:�
When the Steelers met Indy in 2002, it was, pretty much, Manning to Marvin or nothing at all.� Following a catastrophic knee injury, Edge James was slowly rounding back into form.� Reggie Wayne had yet to develop and neither Brandon Stokely nor Dallas Clark was on the team.� Then, the Colts had a mediocre run game and limited receiving weapons.� Now, their run game is near to the top, statistically, and Manning has 4 quality receivers.�
The Colts have built an offense to win either on the ground or through the air.� Indy has shown a willingness to get into whatever kind of game an opponent�s defense dictates.� Early this season, they ground it out against Jacksonville and Cleveland, content to win low-scoring affairs.� Cincinnati chose an air war, and went down in flames, as did St. Louis.� Week 12, the PS did the same (on the D-side anyway), playing packages from the Colts� 2nd possession.� True, Edge rolled but package-heavy mode remains the Steelers best choice.�
The Colts� stretch series places considerable pressure on the middle of the field.� If the ILB are flowing, then the Colts will be throwing; if not, they�ll try to get Edge on the edge.� The stretch is a play action run; Indy�s inside run game, predicated on the draw, is similarly dependent on their air threat.� Most teams run to set up the pass but the Colts do not.� Take away the air, and, even in packs, the PS may still win the battle on the ground.� Not in the 2-4-5, their nickel of choice but, perhaps, in 3-3-5.�
No doubt, the packages will give something against the run but here�s the thing.� To limit the Colt O, any opponent must pick their poison, and then spit that out.� That is: these PS must remove one aspect from Indy�s multi-faceted attack.� By lore, that�s the run but in my opinion the Steelers� choice amounts to this: Peyton Manning can beat the PSD but Edge James cannot.�
Keys
v. Indianapolis O:�
Safety deep: Excluding NE, those teams that had best success with Indy (Carolina and Jacksonville) are Cover 2 teams.�� In the base, the Steelers are not well configured to play that style.� That is because their starting safeties are better playmakers than their starting ILB.� The PS base D is better fit for single high, or Cover 3. In heavy dime, aka �quarter� pack, the Steelers can� play Cover 2; otherwise, not so much.� �
Disrupt the Colt receivers: As is well known, NE played the Colt receivers physically; that is true of their CB, especially Ty Law in 2003, and their LB, especially in the 2004 Divisional round.� The Panther CBs typically play a physical game too.��� The young Steeler CB, especially Ike Taylor, can overmatch most WR athletically; however, in zone, they do have recognition issues. It figures Taylor will be asked to shadow one Colt WR throughout.� Although Marvin Harrison is the main man, Taylor is a better fit against Reggie Wayne.� Harrison�s game is predicated on change of speed; Taylor has struggled against those types (reference: Derrick Mason).� Wayne is a smaller, slower version of Chad Johnson.� With Taylor on him, advantage Steelers.
Punish Edge James:� James is it in the run game; in the pass game, he provides Manning a degree of security checking down.� The PSD must deny Manning that easy option.�
Set the edge:� The Colts are a wide running team.� The PS OLB can, and must, defeat Colt TE Dallas Clark and Bryan Fletcher.��
Bull the Colt IOL:� As noted, the Colt O-line works as a unit, moving laterally.� Stunts figure to be ineffective, as, in the zone block scheme, O-linemen will block an alley, not a man.� However, the PS D-line has a considerable power advantage in this segment.� If the PS D-linemen can bow that line, pushing straight upfield, then the PS will win in the run game, whether in base or package sets.�
The above outlines Coach LeBeau�s approach last time.� That was fairly effective: excluding an 80-yard opening strike, which was all about Ike Taylor�s failure to execute Cover 3, and that short field TD opening H2, when Coach Bill�s long-shot onside didn�t pay out, the Steelers limited the high flying Equine Tots to 4 FG.� Do that again and they should win it.�
As for
the PSO, well, conventional wisdom is: to beat the Dungy Two, beat down the
Dungy Two.� That may be so, but it does require
running efficiently straight out of the gate, not something these 2005 Steelers
have accomplished.� Here, we tracked the
Steelers� run/pass splits all season.�
Those results were summarized in last week�s Wildcard Preview:�
- �� The PSO closed in a rush, averaging 185
yards per over their final four games.�
In three, they gained 190 or better, averaging 204 in the last
two.� On the face of it, that�s an
overmatch.� The Bengal run-D is bad
and the Steelers are running more effectively than at any point in this
season.� However, it is worth
noting that most of those yards were gained late.� In those final four, the PSO rushed for
740 yards, but just 210 in all H1.�����
The
Steelers run game over their final four was better than at any time in the
season.� However, even then that was not
the component they won with, not from the jump anyway.� Dr. Z of SI noted the same thing this week, as
per his Divisional Preview:
- �Against Cincinnati,
(�), Pittsburgh�s ground game was a modest 12 for 38 in the first half but
22 for 106 after intermission.�
It�s a pattern that�s been present all season.� First half rushing totals have fallen
short of those in the second half in each of their last 13 games.� In fact, for the whole season,
Pittsburgh�s rushing in the first half has averaged a meager 50.9 yards on
14.4 carries, a 3.5 yard average�.��
The
good Doctor notes 50.9 per H1 overall, little less than the 52.5 per H1 the PSO
gained at their best, over their final four.�
Of course, Z�s observation begs this question: are all high grade
rushing attacks similarly split, struggling through H1 to dominate H2? �Well, no:
Lead
RB on leading rush attacks, H1/H2 splits:
|
Team
rank |
Team |
Team
YPG |
Feature
RB or RBs |
H1 Carries/yards/YPC |
H2 Carries/yards/YPC |
YPC
+/- By
H |
|
#2 |
Broncos |
158.7 |
Anderson
|
125/539
at 4.3 |
114/475
at 4.2 |
Insignificant |
|
|
|
|
Bell |
81/363
at 4.5 |
92/558
at 6.1 |
+1.6
H2 |
|
#3 |
Seahawks |
153.6 |
Alexander |
194/927at
4.8 |
169/929
at 5.5 |
+0.7
H2 |
|
#4 |
Chiefs |
148.9 |
Holmes |
63/237
at 3.8 |
56/214
at 3.8 |
None |
|
|
|
|
Johnson |
173/1,006
at5.8 |
163/744
at 4.6 |
+1.2
H1 |
|
#5 |
Steelers |
138.9 |
Parker
|
119/462
at 3.9 |
130/738
at 5.7 |
+1.8
H2 |
|
|
|
|
Bettis
|
61/173
at 2.8 |
49/195
at 4.0 |
+1.2
H2 |
|
#6 |
Giants |
138.1 |
Barber |
185/945
at 5.1 |
163/844
at 5.2 |
Insignificant |
|
#7 |
Skins |
136.4 |
Portis |
201/852
at 4.2 |
149/663
at 4.4 |
Insignificant |
Notes:�
- Atlanta, #1 overall, is
excluded due to the Michael Vick effect.�
- Only two of nine RB
listed have more carries in the 2nd half; they are: Willie
Parker and Tatum Bell.���
- Five of nine RB listed
have significant YPC splits, H1 to H2.�
Bettis and Parker, along with Bell, have been notably more
effective H2.� Shaun Alexander,
excellent in each, had 2 more H2 yards, but 25 fewer carries.� Only Larry Johnson was more effective
in H1.
- Still, six of nine
averaged more than 4.0 YPC H1; Parker, Bettis and Priest Holmes did
not.�� Of eighteen �halves� noted
above, these RB achieved 4.0 or better in fourteen.� Holmes missed twice; Bettis and Parker
as noted.�
Parker�s
H1/H2 split is the largest; Tatum Bell�s is next. ��Bettis is the only RB to average less than 3.0 YPC in any given
half.� The sum suggests that these
Steelers are about one Mike Anderson short of dominance.� Next year, Duce Staley may be that guy.� Or not.��
Regardless, it is highly unlikely that these 2005 PS can pound it
effectively early.� It was what it was;
with the exception of the opening two tilts, they haven�t done so yet.�
Maybe,
the Steelers� early struggles are all about the absence of a big feature
back.� If so, well, that�s not going to
change.� More likely, or more
optimistically, it�s a matter of the PS O-line (Faneca, Hartings and the three
pachyderms) wearing on opponents.� In
that case, the PS could go all run early (ala AFCC 2004), seeking to gain their
attrition threshold by, say, Q2, rather than Q3.� However, that�s a bad strategy, overall, considering the Indy O tendency
towards fast starts:
- In 14 games that
mattered, the Colt O scored 46 TD in 114 possessions.� That is a rate of 32%.
- In 33 Q1 possessions,
the Colt O scored 14 TD.� That is a
rate of 42%.�
To
win, the PS will have to take the crowd out of the game.� To do so, they�ll have to score early.� There is no reason to expect they will run
the ball effectively, not in the early going.�
Therefore, they�ll have to throw to move it.� In other words, SOP, per our yearlong rush charts.�
Finally,
this key indicator:
- Roethlisberger led the
League in YPA.� His 8.90 was 0.63
ahead of #2, Peyton Manning.� That�s
an outsize margin as 0.63 behind Manning clustered 5 QB.� ��
- November in Indy, following
a 3-week layoff, Roethlisberger�s YPA was 5.12.� �
There�s
the difference-maker.� The Steelers do have
one other thing going: punt returns, where they finished #3 overall.�� In contrast, the Colts� little used punt
coverage unit was #30, allowing 10.9 YPR.�
If the PSO can�t score early, the PS PR group might.� However, this, adapted from that concluding
our Game 11 preview, still seems to apply:
Conclusion:�
In an alternative universe, this Divisional encounter is the Game of the Week. There, the 13-3 Steelers invade Hoosier Land, lair of the greatest of clan Manning, the man around whom the League Office reconfigured the game.� In that world, commentators must note that Peyton is the Last Big Thing; that, with Roethlisberger at the helm, the Steelers, not the Colts, have the most potent air attack in all of football.� Not the most prolific, but the most potent: YPA being the prime indicator.� Roethlisberger leads in that stat; Manning does trail.��
We are where we are.� SOP v. the Dungy 2 is to clock it, grind time, and win late.� That worked out fine against the Dungy Bucs, circa 2001, and those remnants under Gruden too, circa 2002, but there is this crucial difference: these Colts can score but those Bucs could not.� Championship teams can win all kinds of games.� Consider the Pats: in one Super season, they beat the Colts 38-34; in the next, they beat them 20-3.� These 2005 Colts, seeking to dethrone their nemesis, have won big, and they�ve won ugly too.� As for these Pittsburgh Steelers: well, they�ve run effectively against some opponents, but more often, not.� To be the best, this season, they�re going to have to win by other means.� To be the best, within the Manning Rules, they�re going to have to develop the fortitude to get into a shoot-out, as necessary.�
Buckle up.��
Back of the Book:
As noted above, the PSO gained 36.6% of their rushing yards H1.� Last year, well:��
2004
PS run game stats, QB rushes are excluded.
|
Opponent |
H1 Carries
for yards |
H2 Carries
for yards |
Total Carries
for Yards |
|
Oakland |
19
for 60������������������ (3.15) |
11
for 34 |
30
for 94 (3.13) |
|
@
Baltimore |
9
for 46 |
15
for 46 |
24
for 92 (3.83) |
|
@ Miami |
19 for 56����������������� (2.94) |
18 for 95 |
37 for 151 |
|
Cincinnati |
17
for 73 |
19
for 90 |
36
for 163 |
|
Cleveland |
15
for 68 |
22
for 89 |
37
for 157 |
|
@Dallas |
12
for 56 |
15
for 61 |
27
for 117 |
|
NE |
19
for 81 |
25
for 137 |
44
for 218 |
|
Philadelphia |
23
for 124 |
27
for 118 |
50
for 242 |
|
@ Cleveland |
19
for 70������������������ (3.68) |
21
for 72 |
40
for 142 (3.55) |
|
@ Cincinnati |
14
for 63 |
17
for 72 |
31
for 135 |
|
Washington |
16 for 33������������������ (2.06) |
16 for 70 |
32 for 103 (3.21) |
|
@Jacksonville |
13
for 42������������������ (3.23) |
9
for 38 |
22
for 80 (3.63) |
|
Jersey Jets |
11 for 40������������������ (3.63) |
16 for 82 |
27 for 122 |
|
@ NJG |
21
for 82 (3.90) |
17
for 79 |
38
for 161 |
|
Baltimore |
11
for 64 |
25
for 109 |
36
for 173 |
|
@Buffalo |
20 for 55����������������� (2.75) |
18 for 101 |
38 for 156 |
|
Jersey Jets (PO) |
12
for 48 |
27
for 115 (includes OT) |
39
for 163 |
|
NE (PO) |
20
for 51 (2.50) |
12
for 67 |
32
for 118 (3.68) |
Notes:
� Opponents indicate games Roethlisberger started.�
� Boldface across indicates 2004 games when the Steelers ran for less than 4.0YPC H1 and for <~37% of all rush yards, as per their 2005 standard.� In all, 4 of 18; of those 4, Miami and Buffalo followed a pattern similar to that seen lately (bad run totals early, but strong at the close).�
� H1 YPC totals < 4.0 are (shown), as are game totals.� In eight of eighteen, the 2004 PS ran for less than 4.0 in H1; in five, less than their 2005 H1 standard of 3.5.�
� Adapting Z�s terms:� �H1 run totals fell short of H2� in 13 of 18 games.� In 3 of those anomalous 5, PS RB/WR totaled less than 100 yards rushing.�
2005
PS run game stats, QB rushes are excluded.
|
Opponent |
H1 Carries
for yards |
H2 Carries
for yards |
Total Carries
for Yards |
|
Tennessee |
15
for 72 |
23
for 129 |
38
for 201 |
|
@
Houston |
15 for 73 |
17
for 62 |
32
for 135 |
|
NE |
10 for 36 |
10
for 26 |
20
for 62 |
|
@
SD |
17 for 52 |
13
for 37 |
30
for 89 |
|
Jacksonville
|
11
for 24 |
16
for 34 |
27
for 58 |
|
@
Cincinnati |
14
for 72 |
29
for 154 |
43
for 226 |
|
Baltimore
|
11
for 41 |
13
for 56 |
24
for 97 |
|
@
GB |
9 for 72 |
16
for 68 |
25
for 140 |
|
Cleveland |
13
for 45 |
24
for 98 |
37
for 143 |
|
@
Baltimore |
6
for 9 |
15
for 50 |
21
for 59 |
|
@
Indy |
14
for 22 |
8
for 43 |
22
for 65 |
|
Cincinnati |
16
for 44 |
11
for 49 |
27
for 93 |
|
Chicago |
14
for 64 |
30
for 128 |
44
for 192 |
|
@
Minnesota |
10
for 20 |
23
for 115 |
33
for 135 |
|
@Cleveland |
21
for 66 |
14
for 143 |
35
for 209 |
|
Detroit |
13
for 52 |
28
for 142 |
41
for 194 |
|
@
Cincinnati (PO) |
11
for 32 |
19
for 109 |
30
for 141 |
Notes:
� Adapting Z�s terms:� �H1 run totals fell short of H2� in 13 of 17 games.� In 3 of those anomalous 4, PS RB totaled less than 100 yards rushing.� �The other, Houston, featured their H1 high, 73 yards.�
� PS RB/WR have rushed for 100 or better in just 10 of 17 tilts; the last 5, the first 2 and few in between.� Last year, that number was 15 of 18.
� Trai Essex started, or saw consequential action, in four games.� PS RB/WR broke through to triple digits in one.�