Bye
Wrap-Up, Steelers at Chargers Preview���
�By CK Stiller
This
was a pretty good weekend for the Steelers, in spite of the fact that they
didn�t play. The Chargers, Bengals, and Jaguars all dropped games. Even more
significant? �Not one team in the AFC
has set themselves apart from the rest of the pack. There are only two
undefeated teams in the AFC at the moment, the Colts and the Ravens. �Each has very obvious flaws. Indy has been
unable to get their run game going against anyone besides a flimsy Jets
defense, and there defense is currently banged up and looking weak. The Ravens
offense continued to struggle against the Chargers, and at one point in the
game, the Chargers had held the ball for almost twice the time the Ravens had.
By the second half, the Ravens were wearing down and the Chargers were
beginning to have success running. �The
Chargers outplayed the Ravens, and only super turtle-ball from the master
himself, Marty Schottenheimer, cost them that game. �The Bengals were stomped by the Patriots, who did what the
Steelers should have a week earlier. They ran all over a Bengals defense that
is playing even worse then last year. Then, the Patriots themselves have shown
themselves to be a rather flawed team. �With
no passing game, and a defense lacking in DB�s/LB�s, the Steelers match up far
better against this Patriots team than they have with any other.
I
personally believe the Steelers are actually playing pretty good football all
around. The defense has been playing at a high level, and the run game has
dominated in two of the three games played so far. �The only missing piece is Roethlisberger and the passing
game�assuming that Ricardo Colclough never returns another punt as a Steeler. �The season, though, ultimately hinges on
whether Roethlisberger can return to his old form. Last year, the Steelers
rebounded after a tough loss to the Patriots traveling into San Diego. �They will have to do it again, with perhaps
the entire season on the line.
Roethlisberger
is nowhere near his old accuracy, timing, and touch at this moment. There is
good news, though. His arm appears to be a lot stronger�he unfortunately is
using it more like Shane Boyd at this point. �His passes are frequently being thrown too high and too hard, and
I believe this is contributing to a number of the Steelers drops. �Think back to the past two games, and ask
yourself how many times you saw Steelers WR�s have to jump up for passes. �It�s a lot, and the Steelers WR�s are being
put into position where they are taking big hits frequently. When he�s throwing
the longer passes, he is generally either over, or under throwing his guys by
just slightly. He missed Ward by a yard against the Jaguars. �He under-threw him again in the corner of the
end zone last week. I don�t believe he�s on the same page with his WR�s yet.
I�m not overly concerned, and the bye week should have helped here. �Hopefully the Steelers have made good use of
their extra time, and gotten in as many reps as possible.
I�ve
never been a fan of Whisenhunt�s, and that includes his play calling in last
years playoffs. Watching the Steelers offense, it�s extremely dull. There are
few personel sets and formations. �The
Steelers rarely use three-wide. Kreider or Tuman are in on just about every
first and second down, and for the life of me I cannot understand why the
Steelers frequently line Kreider up in the bunch on the outside and then motion
him back in so much. Maybe if he were somewhat of a receiving threat, I could
see it. I don�t understand why the Steelers won�t bring in Haynes for some
package plays. �Line him up outside, or
send Parker out. Haynes can catch, and Parker�s speed could easily cause
mismatch problems on most LB�s. Washington, Ward, and Wilson is a bad
combination of WR�s. �Not one of those
guys can adequately stretch the field. The Steelers invested a first rounder in
Holmes, and it would be nice to see him get on the field more besides in the
shotgun (which is always four wide). That pretty much leads us into the next
problem. �I think every Steelers fan has
noticed the frequency in which the shotgun is used on third down. It�s always
four wide, and Haynes in the backfield. �Miller rarely finds himself involved, which is starting to become
a common theme. As Mill has pointed out, he is rarely on the field on third
down, and thrown to even less. �Consider
that, of his 7 catches so far this season, only one takes place on a third down
(a conversion on a 3-10 against the Bengals). �Of his 39 catches last season, just 7 came on third downs. �Considering that Miller has maybe the
softest hands in the league, and is the best at getting position to beat his
man and finding holes in zones, he just isn�t used when the Steelers need him
the most.
Steelers
Pass Game
Last
year, the Steelers threw with ease on the Chargers secondary. If there was a
time to start using some of the more exotic offensive schemes (at least by
Steelers standards), it�s now. This is a defense you want to spread out and
throw on. Merriman is already one of the most dominant LB�s in the league. This
guy can bull rush tackles, and knock RB�s and TE�s right on their ass. He and
his counterpart Shaun Phillips weigh in at over 530 pounds combined. They have
roughly 40 pounds on their Steelers counterparts, and it shows on the field in
more ways than one. While they are stout on the run, and provide for a better
pass rush, they are also weaker in coverage. The Steelers need to get both TE�s
involved in the passing game, and spread this defense out with three and four
WR sets. �The Steelers may find mismatches
with Miller at various points in this game, especially with SS Terrence Kiel
unlikely to play. �However, I would
expect the Chargers to try and get Donnie Edwards on him as much as possible.
Edwards is undersized, but perhaps the best coverage LB in the league. He
rivals Porter or Farrior in this regard, and has 25 INT�s in his career at this
point (including 1 last week against the Ravens). �Tuman or Washington should be able to get open this week, and need
to be used. I�m interested to see how Washington would match up with the rookie
Cromartie when the Chargers bring in more defensive backs. He�s big, strong,
fast and physical. �There�s a reason the
Chargers spent a first on him, in spite of the fact that he didn�t even play
his senior year. �He�s looked impressive
up till this point, while I would have thought he would have been more raw.
Hines
Ward was able to dominate against Jammer last year, and there�s no reason he
shouldn�t do so again. Jammer likes to be physical, which is a game you do not
want to get into with Ward. I fully expect him to make one or two stupid
mistakes and give the Steelers free yards. This is a good time to get Ward
involved in the game, so hopefully he�s full healed and worked things out with
Roethlisberger. The Chargers did upgrade at FS with the addition of Marlon
McCree. �Because of that, I would expect
the Steelers to work outside on this defense more. Both WR�s match up well on
these corners, and should able to get plenty of the short/intermediate stuff.
With Kiel out, there will be opportunities to hit the deep ball. Last week,
Mason was able to get open over top a few times. �Wilson should be able to the same at some point. He has had some
success getting over top of defenses so far this season, as well as last year. �Roethlisberger�s second INT came when he had
his man beat deep, but he tripped on Marvel Smith�s ankle, and the ball was
horribly under thrown. If there�s anything that should make defenses start
laying off Ward (who says he is seeing more attention than he ever has before),
it�s a few deep passes to Wilson. He is capable enough, and the only other
thing close to a �deep threat� as the Steelers have besides Holmes (who the
Whisenhunt refuses to actually, you know, send deep).
Steelers
Run Game
There�s
not a lot of room here for the Steelers to run in. It is crucial for the
Steelers to get their passing game going, because the run game will not have
great success against this Chargers front-7. Simmons looked good last week on
Adams for the most part, and Parker was able to get some cut back room and take
advantage of a weak Bengals LB�ing corps. �There�s not much space against this defense, and the Steelers
won�t get the same initial push they had last week. Running lanes will be hard
to get by, and Merriman and Phillips control the edge. Neither Miller or Tuman
is going to fair well against these DE�s and OLB�s. �They won�t be getting moved backwards, and could spend much of the
day in the Steelers backfield. �Ideally,
the Steelers would like to hit them inside, at the undersized Edwards. He�s the
biggest weakness, if you can even call it that. Jamal Williams demands doubles,
though, much like Hampton. Starks will struggle to get push against Olshansky,
the least heralded, but a strong member of this front-7. �Phillips will control the edge. Godfrey and
Edwards will be free to make plays inside for most of the night, and hitting
the corner will be difficult with these OLB�s. �The best bet is to spread them and throw. I personally believe
this is better suited to the strengths of Parker, and it would do a lot more to
tire this large group out by the second half. �Make Merriman and Phillips run, and keep drives going early. By
the second half, this defense will wear down like any other, and there will be
a bit more running room for the Steelers. �I say this because I believe the defense is going to dominate even
more then they did last year.
Steelers
Pass Defense
The
Chargers are hiding Rivers. �There are
no comparisons to be made between this offense, and that of the 2004 Steelers.
For those who whine about how conservative Cowher is, just take a look at the
master himself - Marty Schottenheimer. There�s a reason his teams continuously
blow fourth quarter leads, and its because he refuses to change. Last week
against the Ravens, he would not let Rivers throw, and continued to pound the
ball in the second half. �The Ravens
were able to overtake them in the end with a few breaks, and a single drive at
the end of the game.
Rivers
is throwing very short, quick passes. �They
have him on a short leash. Where as Roethlisberger would hang on to the ball,
and scramble outside to hit the big play, Rivers gets rid of the ball quickly. �They seem to ask him to do two things - don�t
throw picks, and don�t take sacks. The problem is, Rivers isn�t very accurate,
on top of not having a very strong arm. �Last week, he made some bad reads facing the closest thing to a
test he�s had yet. He was picked early throwing into heavy coverage, and was
unable to hit his WR�s. �He�s not going
to squeeze passes into tight windows. �Right
now, I don�t think he�ll do much of anything besides hit the open man, usually
on a five yard route.
LeBeau�get
rid of the cushions. If there�s one thing that worries me, it�s that we�ll see
a repeat of the Lions game of last year, when Harrington threw for an ungodly
amount of yards as he threw right at the blitz on short, generally safe passes.
�The Steelers corners match-up well
here. With McCardell being banged up, and Eric Parker next to him, then there�s
no reason to be scared of playing up close. �Rivers few deep balls have gone short on him, and there�s no way
the Steelers should be scared of getting hit deep. �For three weeks now, teams have made a living throwing WR screens
and short little hitches. Take this crap away, and there shouldn�t be a
problem. �I can really see Rivers
forcing a ball or two where it doesn�t belong in this game.
Steelers
Run Defense
The
Chargers OL is underrated, and every bit as good as that of the Steelers. Not a
spectacular unit, but good. In the backfield, they have developed a very
reliable combination of Tomlinson and Turner (30 carries for 221 yards). �I think Turner may actually give the Steelers
more problems, if they have any. Tomlinson is more of a cut back runner who
will dance, and the Steelers ate him alive last year outside of a single screen
pass which amounted to zero points on the scoreboard. �After the game, LT called the Steelers the
best run defense he had ever faced. Turner has a great burst, and simply runs
straight up field to get the yards that are there. He hit�s the hole hard and
fast, and is a very good back with a lot of speed. He�s a change up from
Tomlinson, and has been very effective so far. �The Chargers will occasionally bring both of these two into the
backfield at once, and sometimes spread LT out as a wide-out and leave him
alone in the backfield. �Just something
to watch for. When they need the tough yards, they turn to Lorenzo Neal more
times then not. He�s a pure FB, one of the few left, who they will throw and
run the ball with. I don�t foresee many running lanes. Keisel has looked very
impressive so far. I personally would say he�s been a complete upgrade over
Kimo. Foote has stepped his game up big time since the playoff run last year,
and Farrior is playing like he did back in 04 and late last year when he was
fully healthy. �Haggans dominated last
week, which is what the Steelers needed to see from him after a quiet first two
games. �Best of all is the fact that you
can count on Schottenheimer running right into the teeth of this defense all
day long.
Prediction:
I really like how the Steelers match-up here in two of the three
dimensions in the game. I think special teams needs to get a mention, though,
after we�ve seen it play such a role so far this season, and in the past�Turner
is an explosive return-man. �The
Steelers need to be careful here, because they do not need him setting this
Chargers offense up with great field position all day. �That has happened in too many important games
over the years. Two instances from last year - the Patriots and second Bengals
game. �All day long those two teams
started in great field position, by which I mean beyond the 40. If there�s
anything that could the defense this week, it�s this. �The return game hasn�t been bad since the first
week against the Dolphins, but then the Bengals were missing their best
returner. �They cannot allow special
teams to change the course of this game again. �I�m really hoping Reid is activated, because the Steelers need to
get some better field position themselves.
Roethlisberger
will make the offense go. �No one knows
what will happen with him until he�s on the field. �With the way the defense has been playing, though, the offense
should only need to be average against this conservative Chargers offense.
Final
Score: Stillers 24, Chargers 13