Stillers vs. Bucs Pregame Analysis (Game #15, @ Tampa)
The Stillers depart the chilly North and head down to the balmy state of
Florida to face the 11-3 Bucs on MNF in a battle that should be among the
better shown on Monday evenings this season.�
Both teams have considerable reasons to lay it on the line.� The Stillers need a win, not only to lock up
the lowly AFC North, but also to position themselves for a first-round bye in
the playoffs.� Tampa, meanwhile, can not
only clinch a division title, but more importantly, avoid facing their 26 years
of cold weather futility by winning their final 2 games and perhaps, then, winning
home field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs or, at the very least, getting
at least one game at home.� Add the
physical nature of both of these teams, the fire of these two head coaches, and
the smack talk between yappers extraordinaire Lee Flowers and Warren Sapp, and
you've got all the makings of a game full of emotional bravado, smash-mouth
football, and skull-cracking hits. �
* When the Bucs have the ball, the huge question will surround
who will take the snaps and lead the offense.�
Starting QB Bad Johnson is hobbled by a bad back, and is listed as
questionable.� Johnson hasn't gotten a
lot of media attention, but he's put together a fairly stellar season here in
'02.� He's tossed 22 TDs, and equally impressive,
has thrown only 6 INTs.� Since November,
in fact, no NFL QB has thrown for as many TDs.�
If Johnson can't go, then Shaun King, who has thrown all of 1 pass all
season, will get the nod over the other Johnson, Rob.� Because of King's rust and inactivity, along with his average
passing skills, it would obviously be a tremendous break if Bad Johnson cannot
play. �
The running game is led by the 2-headed effort of Mike's Alstott and
Pittman.� Alstott is a tough, hard-nosed
plowback, although he's not the kind of back that gives the Stillers problems.� Pittman is a steady, workmanlike runner,
but, again, isn't the kind of back that gives the Stillers problems, because he
lacks the slashing and knifing abilities of, say, Curtis Martin or Deuce
McAllister.� The back that actually
scares me the most is little used backup Aaron Stecker, who possesses an
electric combination of speed and quickness.�
Stecker hasn't got much work toting the ball in this offense, but when
he has, he's been combustible, averaging over 6 yards/carry.� While Pitman and Alstott are perfectly
capable of trudging for 5 or 7 yards once in a while, Stecker has the big-play
ability to take it to the house. �
Brad Johnson has a decent pair of starting WRs to work with, led by Keyshawn
Johnson.� Keyshawn has had a steady, but
not spectacular, season.� Leave no
doubt, of course: Keyshawn is dangerous, especially because of his size, guile,
RAC ability, and Irvin-like abilities to interfere and get away with it.� Opposite Keyshawn is ex-Jaguar Keenan
McCardell, who is a wily, experienced WR who gives Brad Johnson a reliable
target when Keyshawn is smothered by opposing D's.� I was never an immense fan of McCardell -- feeling that he
couldn't handle physical punishment all that well, nor was he a true
game-breaker -- but there are at least a couple dozen worse starting receivers
in the league.� Pitmann is a favorite
safety valve for Johnson, having caught 56 balls thus far.� Alstott, too, is a decent outlet, with 33
grabs, and Stecker has caught a few balls as well.� Two men really scare me in the Buc passing game:� WR Joe Jurevicious and TE Ken Dilger.� Jurevicious is a big, strong WR who can
easily outmuscle a shrimp like DeShea Townsend.� The Bucs might also get him into mis-matches with LBs.� Dilger has always had my utmost
respect.� (In fact, the Stillers should
have tried to acquire him as a free agent, instead of clinging to Mister
Stonefoot, Mark Bruener.)� Dilger is
crafty, tough, and reliable, and the Stillers have been ripe for the beating
from teams with good TEs.� Talented but
mentally-troubled Ricky Dudley backs up Dilger at TE, and although an enigma,
is a dangerous pass-catcher who has snared 13 balls and 3 TDs. �
Up front, the Bucs have a solid O-line.�
Center Jeff Christy, the ex-Vike, anchors the middle .� The guards are average, with Coleman and
Jenkins working the RG and LG respectively.�
At tackle, they have veteran Roman Oben at LT, with last year's first
rounder, Ken Walker, at RT.� Alstott, of
course, serves as an "third offensive guard" of sorts, because he
possesses such enormous brawn, strength, toughness, tenacity, and blocking
prowess.� (To think that the Stillers
bypassed Alstott in the '96 draft in order to select Fat Jamain Stephens, still
makes me ill.)��� �
The Stiller defense is getting its swagger back, thanks in large part to the
feasting on the two very worst offenses in all of pro football the past 2
weeks.� Tampa's offense shouldn't be
confused with the Charger offense of the early 80's, but compared to the inept,
pathetic nature of the past two opponents, Tampa's offense will look like the
'67 Packers in comparison.� One thing
that troubles me is the use of what is a 4-man rotation on the Stiller
D-line.� In theory, Brett "The
Weasel" Keisel is the 5th lineman, but Keisel is dressing on game days
only to help out the NFL's worst special teams, and nothing more.� Kimo V. is no longer a spring chicken, and
Fat Casey Hampton takes a beating at NT.�
With DE Rod Bailey serving as the only backup D-lineman, the
Stillers are ripe for a pounding if Tampa is able to get a lead, and then get
its ground game churning at a high rate of efficiency.� Added to that is the fact that Gruden is
smart enough to take full advantage of the weakest LB on the other side of the
ball.� Look for the Bucs to double-team
Aaron Smith -- who is having a fine season -- and allow their TE or Alstott to
simply maul Jason GilDong and create some fissures for easy yardage.� Safety Lee Flowers did a lot of talking after
last year's game, as well as this past week.�
Let's see if Lee can back up his talk with some above average play,
which would be a first for him all season. �
The key matchup will be the Bucs passing game against the Stiller
pass defense.� There are numerous
sub-plots in this matchup that will play out during the evening: McCardell and
especially Keyshawn against our starting CBs; Jurevicious against our nickel
backs; Dilger against SS Lee Flowers or the God of LB Coverage, James
Farrior.� And, unlike the porous lines
of Carolina and Houston, the Bucs have protected their bootfooted QBs decently
in '02, having given up 30 sacks.� The
Stillers will need to hound and harass whomever is playing QB.� Jason GilDong, who supposedly has
"snapped out of his slump" and is now armed with his supposedly
newfound "bulrush", has feasted the past couple of games against ghost
blocking.� Let's see what the big
he-man does against a genuine NFL offense.�
Alstott and Pitman aren't the kind of backs, especially behind an
unspectacular O-line, who will carve up the Stiller defense.� Unless Stecker strikes gold, this means the
Bucs will have to move via the aerial route, which the Stillers have been
susceptible to when facing passing offenses that are modestly more capable than
the average high school team.� Gruden
would prefer to pound and plunge, but he's a realist enough to foresee that futility,
and he'll be prepared to have his boys throwing early and often in the balmy Florida
climate. �
* When the Stillers have the ball, Tommy Maddox will be at the helm,
presumably in full control after a steady but far from spectacular game last
week versus Carolina.� Saddox hasn't
looked good since the Atlanta game, and he'll need to play at an optimum level
for the Stillers to win this game.��
Doughboy Bettis wrenched his knee pretty badly at the end of a TD run
last week, but he continued on in the game, and is supposedly healthy enough to
make a go of it this week.� Bettis has
already been hobbled by an assortment of maladies, and I have vast concerns as
to whether The Fat Back can get the job done in an adequate manner on Monday
evening.� Sure, most everyone points to
last year's stellar Bettis effort versus Tampa, but that was long before Bettis
injured his groin -- and wolfed down thousands of calories per meal.� A slow-moving, tip-toeing Bettis is good
enough to gain yardage against the pathetic likes of Houston and Carolina, but
nowhere near against the Bucs.� The bad
thing is, backup RB Amoz is also hobbled with an injured thumb, and 3rd string
RB Chris Fu has spent so much time in the hot tub that his skin has shriveled
like a prune, thereby possibly negating his ability to contribute. �
The Tampa defense is spearheaded by its sturdy D-line, led by
all-world DT Warren Sapp.� The Bucs took
a major hit when they lost DT Anthony McFarland to injury, but there's still
plenty of beef up front.� Simeon Rice is
a demon at RDE, and Greg Spires is a serviceable vet at LDE.� Both DEs are a bit smallish, and it would
behoove the Stillers to attack them with Kreider's lead blocks helping some
power drive blocking.� Derrick Brooks --
a superb all-around LB that makes Jason Gildon looks like a toddler in
comparison -- leads the LB corps.�
Brooks is exceptionally quick, fast, and ballhawking, and he alone can
turn around a game with a big play, whether it be a strip or an INT.� MLB Shelton Quarles leads the team in
tackles.� Alshermond (no, I'm not making
up this name) Singleton mans the other OLB spot.�� The secondary is steady.�
Hard-htting SS John Lynch leads this pack, although his health is
questionable and he may not play.� This
would be a huge boost for the Stillers, because Lynch's fondness and adeptness
for hitting gives the Bucs what amounts to an extra LB when they bring Lynch up
near the LOS.� If need be, Lynch will be
replaced by 2nd year man John Howell.�
Brian Kelly and Ronde Barber man the corners.� Neither is to be confused with, say, Mike Haynes, but both are
serviceable and capable.� The Bucs, in
fact, are #1 in the NFL in pass defense, yielding just 151 yards/game thru the
air.� Part of this can be attributed to
solid play by the secondary, but an equal part must be credited to a front 7
that not only dictates a lot of "predictability" from 3rd &
longs, but also hounds and harasses opposing QBs, severely disrupting the QB's
decision cycle.� �
The key matchup will be the Stiller ground attack against the Tampa
front 7.� Cowher will look to "keep
the game close until the 4th quarter" and play a close to the vest style,
in order to limit turnovers against a defense that has a hearty appetite for
creating them.� Despite such softee,
lifeless competition the past couple weeks, Cowher is probably pretty satisfied
with his running game, and combined with the success the Bucs pass defense has
had in '02, Cowher will probably order OC Mike Mularkey to spend good bit of
the first half trying to plunge the ball as much as possible.� There is some room to run on the Tampa
defense, but it simply must be done with quick-hitting running plays, not the
WhaleShit Counter that Cowher and Mularkey are so fond of calling.� Both Tampa DEs are undersized and are often
looking for sacks, not run-stuffing.�
Sapp, too, can be guilty of taking himself out of a running lane due to
his over-eagerness to get at the QB.�
The Stillers must utilize influence and drive blocks on quick-hitting
runs where the RB hits the hole crisply after the handoff.� Tampa has good team speed on defense, so the
WhaleShit Counter won't be all that effective.�
If the running game falters, the Bucs will be able to pin their ears
back and rush the Human Statue, Tom Maddox, with vim and vigor.� Not a pretty sight.� �
* Special Teams: �The big
change for the Stillers will be at punter, where Schloshed Miller is on IR and
veteran Tom Rouen will assume the punting chores.� Kicker Jeff Reed continues his dazzling rookie campaign, and
should be pleased as punch to kick on a nice field in balmy weather.� D-lineman Brett Keisel has added a big spark
to the otherwise pathetic Stiller coverage teams.� Both Randle El and Poteat have coughed up the ball on punt
returns in December, so it's anyone's guess as to who will do these chores on
Monday evening.� The Bucs have one of
the truly finest kickers in the game in Martin Gramatica, who is having yet
another superb season.� Reliable vet Tom
Tupa handles the punting tasks.� The
ever-so-dangerous Stecker handles most of the KO returns, and although he's not
taken one to the house, he has to be salivating at the thought of busting one
on Monday Night Football against the worst coverage unit in the National
Football League.� Karl "The
Truth" Williams does the punt returns, and although far from great, he's a
man to be reckoned with, having returned one PR for a TD. �
Key Individual Matchups:
* Simeon Rice versus Wayne Gandy.�
Contrary to imbecilic comments by the likes of Ted Bouchette, Gandy
was having a sterling season until he injured his calf.� Since then, he's been a shadow of his former
self, and last week, he was rather horrendous.�
If Wayne Candy can't get his feet moving in a quick manner, Simeon will
make Rice out of Candy, and the stonefooted Tommy Maddox will get ravaged from
his blind side, which would cause Turnover City.� Gandy must stave off Rice, and if Gandy
starts to get eaten alive, then Billy Cowshit needs to shake himself from his
stubborn doldrums and get Fat Oliver Ross into the game to protect Maddox's blind
side. �
* Warren Sapp vs. Whomever:�
Sapp has made many a blocker look clumsy and foolish.� Faneca, we know, would be up to the task,
but Sapp mostly lines up at the LDT spot.�
Besides, Gruden would not be so Cowher-like as to have Sapp remain in
the exact same spot all evening.� Sapp
will be moved all over the place, and as such, Simmons, the slightly hobbled
Hartings, and even Marvel Smith must rise to the task of fighting off Sapp when
needed. �
* Casey Hampton vs. Jeff Christy:�
Christy used to be among the better centers in the league, but he's
probably more a mid-pack guy now.�
Hampton has had a strong season, and has rudely whipped the last 3
centers he's faced.� Should Hampton give
Christy a whipping, Tampa's ground game will come to a grinding halt. �
* Plex Burress vs. Whomever:� The
Bucs don't have a corner who can shut down Plex, but they'll shade a safety to
provide plenty of help.� Still, Prime
Time Plaxico often shines on prime time TV, and he'll need to make some big
catches -- and minimize his drops -- if the Stillers are to win this game.�� �
* Takeaway/Giveaway:� The
Stillers lead their conference in giveaways, while the Bucs are 2nd in
the NFL in takeaways.� Unlike the
Steelers, who prefer the softee, passive approach to defensive football, the
Bucs play with brutish ferocity and thus they force turnovers, rather
than the Tiny Tim/Field Goal Bill approach of waiting for turnovers to
simply fall out of the sky.�
Carelessness and poor decisions could result in the horrific turnovers
that have haunted the Black & Gold in nearly every loss this season. �
* Synopsis: It's prime time football, with both teams fighting
for prime playoff real estate.� The
Stillers have beaten just one team with a winning record -- the Colts -- and
that was in the cozy confines of Heinz Field.�
Every other foe with a winning record -- Pats, Raiders, Saints, and
Titans -- have issued a stern can 'o whip ass to Cowher and his troops, or, in
the case of Atlanta, a pathetic tie after choking away a 17-point lead over the
Falcs.� In fact, throw out the Colts,
and the combined foes the Stillers have beaten have a thoroughly abysmal 26-44
record.�� In real estate, location is
everything.� Often time in football,
location is paramount, too.� Cowher does
fine on prime time TV when he's got the home crowd -- full of no less than 7
hours of booze and beer -- whipped up in a frenzy.� Take the home field away, though, and Cowher's troops often
resort to meek, mild-mannered play.�
Last year, Lee Flowers called the Bucs "paper champions", but
one has to wonder if that moniker actually belong to the Stillers, who have
resided in one of the very worst divisions in the NFL the past 10 years, and
despite numerous division titles and pro bowl honors, have yet to win anything.� This is a game in which the Stillers can
show they belong in the league's upper echelon, but based on the lack of
quality opposition and the fact that they've been whipped by nearly every
quality opponent, I have my doubts.� The
Stillers will keep this a close game, but the steady diet of creampuff
opponents the Stillers have coasted against, along with the hostile Buc crowd,
will hamper the Stiller effort.� Assuming
Bad Johnson plays and isn't overly gimpy, Tampa will win this battle,
24-16. �